2018 College Football Preview- Group of Five Conferences
Today, I'm breaking down my college football model's projections for the Group of Five conferences. It'll be a bit briefer than the last post breaking down the Power Five, and it'll be followed up by a week 1 betting preview. Unfortunately this is coming out after the week zero games- so a few of these teams have already played a game. All predictions are from the preseason, before the week 0 games occurred. See my previous post for a preview of the power conferences.
Numbers before a team indicates their rank out of 130, the numbers after a team indicate my projected amount of regular season wins, followed by Vegas' projected win total.
10. UCF 10.4 9
70. USF 7.0 8.5
79. Temple 6.6 6.5
107. Connecticut 4.1 3.5
117. Cincinnati 3.4 4
129. East Carolina 1.0 3
The American East is the most clear division in the FBS in my model's mind, with UCF 3 wins ahead of everyone else. My model doesn't care much about coaching changes, which is part of the reason I have UCF so far ahead of everyone else, but McKenzie Milton leads an attack that returns 76% of its production from last year. I'm quite bearish on both USF, who was not as good as their record indicated last year, and East Carolina, who is one of two teams I rate below the average FCS team.
West
24. Memphis 9.3 8.5
54. Navy 8.2 7
57. Houston 7.6 7.5
62. Tulane 6.4 5.5
66. Tulsa 6.2 4
88. SMU 4.8 6
The west is much stronger than the east in the AAC- Memphis is the class of the division here but there's lots of contenders. Willie Fritz has built a nice program at Tulane and I think that he'll bring the Green Wave to their first bowl in 5 years. Every team in this division could win a bowl- even Tulsa, who I have quite a bit above their Vegas projection of 4 wins.
47. Wyoming 9.1 6.5
48. Boise State 8.2 10
85. Utah State 7.2 7.5
100. Air Force 4.7 4.5
106. Colorado State 5.4 5.5
115. New Mexico 3.5 4
This is probably my computer's most unconventional division pick- Wyoming has one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, and while they lose their most notable player in Josh Allen a lot of the defense returns. I have the Cowboys as favorites in every game except Missouri and Fresno State. Pretty much everyone else is picking Boise State to win this division, the Broncos very well could. It's also possible they have a worse record overall but win the division, given their tough non-con that includes Troy and Oklahoma State.
West
38. Fresno State 9.2 8
71. San Diego State 7.3 8.5
90. UNLV 6.9 6
96. Nevada 6.5 5.5
111. San Jose State 4.3 3
130. Hawaii 0.9 3.5
Fresno State shocked many by winning this division last year, and I think they'll do so again this year, as they return 87% of their offensive production from a team that was hanging on the fringes of the top 25 including stud QB Marcus McMaryion. I projected Hawaii as the worst team in the FBS, so it was quite a surprise to see them knock off Colorado State last weekend. The Rainbow Warriors return only 17% of their offensive production from a team that was among the 10 worst in FBS last year, they'll struggle to win another Mountain West game.
41. Ohio 9.7 8.5
72. Miami (OH) 7.5 6
76. Buffalo 8.1 6.5
119. Bowling Green 3.4 5.5
121. Akron 3.4 4
126. Kent State 2.6 2.5
My model projects Ohio to finally break through and win the MAC for the first time in 50 years. They're favored in every game, powered by an offense that returns 80% of its production from last year's team that won the Bahamas Bowl. Buffalo will have their best team in years as well, they're favored in every game except Ohio, Toledo and Temple. Akron is highly unlikely to repeat as MAC East champions as they don't return much from last year's fluky division championship team.
West
59. Northern Illinois 6.8 7
60. Western Michigan 8.2 5.5
83. Toledo 6.9 8.5
97. Eastern Michigan 6.0 6
113. Central Michigan 4.4 4
118. Ball State 3.9 4
I project Western Michigan for a lot more wins than Northern Illinois despite them being a slightly worse team, mainly because the Huskies have a ridiculous non-con that features 3 Power Five opponents and BYU. I actually favor the Broncos in their season opener against Syracuse. Eastern Michigan has a decent shot of getting back to their second bowl in three years for the first time in school history.
43. Florida Atlantic 7.9 8.5
63. Middle Tennessee 7.2 7
78. Marshall 6.9 7.5
82. FIU 7.2 5
94. Old Dominion 6.9 5.5
104. Charlotte 4.5 3.5
128. Western Kentucky 2.0 4.5
Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls are undoubtedly the biggest story in Conference USA, if not the whole G5. They have a tough non-con that includes trips to two of my top 10 teams, Oklahoma and UCF, and they also have to play my second through fourth teams in the division on the road. Despite that, they're still projected to finish above MTSU and Marshall. FIU has the second most experienced O-Line in the country and should ride that to a bowl berth.
West
53. Louisiana Tech 8.5 7
73. North Texas 7.9 8
95. UAB 6.9 7.5
99. Southern Miss 5.9 6.5
123. Rice 4.6 3
124. UTSA 2.7 5
125. UTEP 3.4 2.5
UAB was the story of the CUSA West last season, going 8-5 in their first year back playing football. However, I project Louisiana Tech to win the division- they barely lost out to North Texas last year and have a bit more experience than the Mean Green this year. After a solid few years under national championship coach Larry Coker, UTSA is one of the least experienced teams in the FBS and is in for a tough season.
61. Appalachian State 8.6 8.5
68. Troy 8.3 8.5
80. Georgia Southern 7.6 6.5
112. Coastal Carolina 4.1 3.5
116. Georgia State 3.9 5
The Sun Belt is divided into divisions for the first time this year, and this year the east looks like the stronger division by far. Appalachian State has another solid team this year and could give Penn State a scare week 1. Troy showed last year that they can beat the big boys by taking down LSU in Baton Rouge, I actually favor them to knock off a power program again this year in Lincoln against Nebraska.
West
81. Arkansas State 7.5 9
92. ULM 6.8 6
109. UL Lafayette 5.0 5
122. South Alabama 3.1 3.5
127. Texas State 3.1 3
Arkansas State is the consensus pick to win the league this year, but they overachieved last year and I don't think they're going to run away with the west like other do. ULM will be the main competition, as they're the only other team in the division not coming off a coaching change.
That wraps up the Group of Five predictions. Coming up next is the last installment of my preseason series, which is a betting preview of week 1.
Numbers before a team indicates their rank out of 130, the numbers after a team indicate my projected amount of regular season wins, followed by Vegas' projected win total.
American
East10. UCF 10.4 9
70. USF 7.0 8.5
79. Temple 6.6 6.5
107. Connecticut 4.1 3.5
117. Cincinnati 3.4 4
129. East Carolina 1.0 3
The American East is the most clear division in the FBS in my model's mind, with UCF 3 wins ahead of everyone else. My model doesn't care much about coaching changes, which is part of the reason I have UCF so far ahead of everyone else, but McKenzie Milton leads an attack that returns 76% of its production from last year. I'm quite bearish on both USF, who was not as good as their record indicated last year, and East Carolina, who is one of two teams I rate below the average FCS team.
West
24. Memphis 9.3 8.5
54. Navy 8.2 7
57. Houston 7.6 7.5
62. Tulane 6.4 5.5
66. Tulsa 6.2 4
88. SMU 4.8 6
The west is much stronger than the east in the AAC- Memphis is the class of the division here but there's lots of contenders. Willie Fritz has built a nice program at Tulane and I think that he'll bring the Green Wave to their first bowl in 5 years. Every team in this division could win a bowl- even Tulsa, who I have quite a bit above their Vegas projection of 4 wins.
Mountain West
Mountain47. Wyoming 9.1 6.5
48. Boise State 8.2 10
85. Utah State 7.2 7.5
100. Air Force 4.7 4.5
106. Colorado State 5.4 5.5
115. New Mexico 3.5 4
This is probably my computer's most unconventional division pick- Wyoming has one of the most experienced offensive lines in the country, and while they lose their most notable player in Josh Allen a lot of the defense returns. I have the Cowboys as favorites in every game except Missouri and Fresno State. Pretty much everyone else is picking Boise State to win this division, the Broncos very well could. It's also possible they have a worse record overall but win the division, given their tough non-con that includes Troy and Oklahoma State.
West
38. Fresno State 9.2 8
71. San Diego State 7.3 8.5
90. UNLV 6.9 6
96. Nevada 6.5 5.5
111. San Jose State 4.3 3
130. Hawaii 0.9 3.5
Fresno State shocked many by winning this division last year, and I think they'll do so again this year, as they return 87% of their offensive production from a team that was hanging on the fringes of the top 25 including stud QB Marcus McMaryion. I projected Hawaii as the worst team in the FBS, so it was quite a surprise to see them knock off Colorado State last weekend. The Rainbow Warriors return only 17% of their offensive production from a team that was among the 10 worst in FBS last year, they'll struggle to win another Mountain West game.
Mid-American
East41. Ohio 9.7 8.5
72. Miami (OH) 7.5 6
76. Buffalo 8.1 6.5
119. Bowling Green 3.4 5.5
121. Akron 3.4 4
126. Kent State 2.6 2.5
My model projects Ohio to finally break through and win the MAC for the first time in 50 years. They're favored in every game, powered by an offense that returns 80% of its production from last year's team that won the Bahamas Bowl. Buffalo will have their best team in years as well, they're favored in every game except Ohio, Toledo and Temple. Akron is highly unlikely to repeat as MAC East champions as they don't return much from last year's fluky division championship team.
West
59. Northern Illinois 6.8 7
60. Western Michigan 8.2 5.5
83. Toledo 6.9 8.5
97. Eastern Michigan 6.0 6
113. Central Michigan 4.4 4
118. Ball State 3.9 4
I project Western Michigan for a lot more wins than Northern Illinois despite them being a slightly worse team, mainly because the Huskies have a ridiculous non-con that features 3 Power Five opponents and BYU. I actually favor the Broncos in their season opener against Syracuse. Eastern Michigan has a decent shot of getting back to their second bowl in three years for the first time in school history.
Conference USA
East43. Florida Atlantic 7.9 8.5
63. Middle Tennessee 7.2 7
78. Marshall 6.9 7.5
82. FIU 7.2 5
94. Old Dominion 6.9 5.5
104. Charlotte 4.5 3.5
128. Western Kentucky 2.0 4.5
Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls are undoubtedly the biggest story in Conference USA, if not the whole G5. They have a tough non-con that includes trips to two of my top 10 teams, Oklahoma and UCF, and they also have to play my second through fourth teams in the division on the road. Despite that, they're still projected to finish above MTSU and Marshall. FIU has the second most experienced O-Line in the country and should ride that to a bowl berth.
West
53. Louisiana Tech 8.5 7
73. North Texas 7.9 8
95. UAB 6.9 7.5
99. Southern Miss 5.9 6.5
123. Rice 4.6 3
124. UTSA 2.7 5
125. UTEP 3.4 2.5
UAB was the story of the CUSA West last season, going 8-5 in their first year back playing football. However, I project Louisiana Tech to win the division- they barely lost out to North Texas last year and have a bit more experience than the Mean Green this year. After a solid few years under national championship coach Larry Coker, UTSA is one of the least experienced teams in the FBS and is in for a tough season.
Sun Belt
East61. Appalachian State 8.6 8.5
68. Troy 8.3 8.5
80. Georgia Southern 7.6 6.5
112. Coastal Carolina 4.1 3.5
116. Georgia State 3.9 5
The Sun Belt is divided into divisions for the first time this year, and this year the east looks like the stronger division by far. Appalachian State has another solid team this year and could give Penn State a scare week 1. Troy showed last year that they can beat the big boys by taking down LSU in Baton Rouge, I actually favor them to knock off a power program again this year in Lincoln against Nebraska.
West
81. Arkansas State 7.5 9
92. ULM 6.8 6
109. UL Lafayette 5.0 5
122. South Alabama 3.1 3.5
127. Texas State 3.1 3
Arkansas State is the consensus pick to win the league this year, but they overachieved last year and I don't think they're going to run away with the west like other do. ULM will be the main competition, as they're the only other team in the division not coming off a coaching change.
That wraps up the Group of Five predictions. Coming up next is the last installment of my preseason series, which is a betting preview of week 1.
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