2018 College Football Preview- Top 25

This year, I'd like to talk more about my college football model on here. I have primarily used this space for my bracketology in the past with only a little bit of college football coverage, and I'd like to make it more of a 50/50 split going forward. Also, in the past I posted my computer's top 25 on cfbfanpoll.com. Even though the site has shrunk a lot in recent years, I had been putting my top 25 there weekly for a decade and now that it's gone under I need a new place to keep a historical record of my top 25s. So every week on here I'll aim to post the week's rankings, as well as some thoughts about what my computer's favorite bets of the week are. A good summary of how my college football model works can be found in this post from last June. Some of the details of the model have changed in the last year but the skeleton is largely the same.

My Model's Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Wisconsin
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. Clemson

These five are the leading contenders for the national title. Alabama tops my rankings by quite a large margin, the difference between them and Wisconsin is roughly the difference between Wisconsin and #9 Auburn. Last year's national champions look primed to repeat, with another stacked recruiting class coming in to complement a roster full of five-stars. Wisconsin edges out the other 3 primarily on the strength of their run game. The Badgers are tops in the nation in returning offensive line starts, which I've found to be the single most predictive returning experience metric, and Jonathan Taylor is my early Heisman favorite. Oklahoma headlines a rather weak Big 12, I have them as at least touchdown favorites in every game. Georgia is also a touchdown favorite in every regular season game, and has possibly the best quarterback situation in the country with Jake Fromm and Justin Fields, and a loaded recruiting class coming in. Finally, Clemson looks to have one of the best defensive lines in recent memory, although a resurgent ACC means that there's lots of opportunities to slip up in their schedule.

6. Ohio State
7. Washington
8. Penn State
9. Auburn

These are the four other teams that can legitimately win the national title. Ohio State has question marks at quarterback, and it remains to be seen how the Urban Meyer situation will effect them. Washington looks to be the class of the Pac-12, I've installed them as favorites in every game, although only slim favorites against Auburn and Stanford. Penn State is also favorites in all 12, as both of their top 10 opponents, Wisconsin and Ohio State, come to Happy Valley. Auburn's season will be defined by games against Washington, Auburn and Georgia. A 2-1 performance in those 3 will get them right in the thick of the playoff talk.

10. UCF
11. Stanford
12. Texas
13. Florida State
14. Mississippi State

UCF returns much of their offense including stud QB McKenzie Milton from last year's 13-0 squad, and given that my model does not particularly value coaching changes, Scott Frost's departure doesn't ding them much. The other four teams in this tier all have reasonable chances at the playoff- Stanford, Texas and Florida State are all projected as the second best team in their conference, while Mississippi State could easily take down some of the big boys in the SEC.

15. Boston College
16. NC State
17. Notre Dame
18. Northwestern
19. Purdue

This tier contains the first big discrepancies between my model's thoughts and the AP poll. Boston College and NC State headline what will be a very strong middle of the ACC this year, the Golden Eagles are buoyed by their outstanding run game while NC State returns stud QB Ryan Finley and a lot of other pieces from a team that finished comfortably in my top 25 last year. Notre Dame will be solid once again despite a tough schedule that sees them as favorites in only 8 games. Northwestern and Purdue are two of the teams I'm most bullish on- both teams have very experienced offensive lines, the Wildcats stealthily won double digit games last year while the Boilermakers return 85% of their offensive production from a team that was better than their record would indicate last year.

20. Miami (FL)
21. Oklahoma State
22. Wake Forest
23. Michigan State
24. Memphis
25. Virginia Tech

Rounding out the top 20, we have a Miami team that won a lot of close games and had a lot of turnover luck last year that will be hard to replicate. Oklahoma State will come down a bit from their recent top 10 finishes, but are still projected 3rd in the Big 12. Wake Forest is the ACC Atlantic's 5th ranked team, they were better than their record indicated last year and return a lot on offense. Justin Fuente's old school and his new school round out the top 25, Memphis will be the class of the AAC west and likely will face UCF for the American title once again, while Virginia Tech will be neck and neck with Miami in the Coastal.

Coming up in my next post are previews of all the power five conferences, with win total projections and full 130 team rankings.

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