College Football Week 1 Betting Preview
The opening weeks of college football season always present the biggest discrepancies between my model and Vegas. Most college football models converge towards each other as the season goes along- in September, there's a handful of games each week where my spreads are a touchdown different from Vegas, there's only about one such game a week once we get into November. Thus, most of the good betting opportunities happen early in the season. This week, and every other week this season, I'll break down the biggest discrepancies between my projected lines and my model's lines.
Utah State @ Michigan State -23.5
As I mentioned in my Big Ten preview, Michigan State is a bit overrated this year. Utah State looks to be a solid bowl team that has an outside shot at winning their division in the Mountain West. My computer set this number at 14.5, so I'm picking the Aggies here.
Pick: Utah State +23.5
UNLV @ USC -26
UNLV is one of the most experienced teams in the Group of 5 this year, returning 77% of their offensive production. I have USC at #29, quite a bit below their AP ranking of 15 as they essentially start over on offense this year. The Trojans struggled out of the gate against Western Michigan last year and my computer only favors them by 14.5 here.
Pick: UNLV +26
Boise State @ Troy +10
Boise State is the consensus pick to win the Mountain West, but as I mentioned in my Mountain West preview, Wyoming is my computer's surprise pick to win the Mountain division. The Broncos are one of the top 5 teams in the Group of Five, but they don't deserve to be in the discussion for the best Group of Five team as they lost a lot, especially on offense. Troy is going to be right in the thick of things in the Sun Belt, and my computer only has them as a 2 point underdog in this game.
Pick: Troy +10
Syracuse @ Western Michigan +4.5
Western Michigan is perhaps the most experienced team in the MAC, and has many players who were on the team that played in the Cotton Bowl two years ago. Syracuse was quite bad last season outside of their fluky win over Clemson, and starts the season at #65 in my rankings. I have the Broncos a bit higher than the Orange, and thus have them projected as 5 point favorites.
Pick: Western Michigan +4.5
Old Dominion @ Liberty +6.5
This is the Flames' first game as an FBS team, and I think that they're not getting enough respect here. They won't be nearly as bad as some FBS debutantes in recent years (Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Charlotte etc.). Liberty is one of the most experienced teams in the FBS and did knock off Baylor last year, I have this game as a pick'em so I'm picking the Flames here.
Pick: Liberty +6.5
Navy @ Hawaii +10
Before the season, I projected Hawaii to be the worst team in the FBS. They surprised me, and a lot of other people, by beating Colorado State as 17 point underdogs last week. However, I still think that the Rainbow Warriors are getting too much credit here, especially against a Navy team that will contend for the AAC West. My computer likes Navy by 21 here.
Pick: Navy -10
New Mexico State @ Minnesota -21.5
The Golden Gophers have a very young team and will struggle a lot in the Big Ten west this year. New Mexico State lost big to Wyoming last weekend, but I think they should only be 9 point dogs here so I'm picking the Aggies.
Pick: New Mexico State +21.5
Akron @ Nebraska -26
Nebraska is among the most overrated teams in college football this season- I think people are really blowing the Scott Frost effect out of proportion, it'll take a while for him to build up the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was truly awful last year, one of the worst teams in the Power Five, and they don't return much from that team. Akron surprisingly won the MAC East last year, and I only have the Huskers has a 13 point favorite here.
Pick: Akron +26
Unsurprisingly for week one, most of my picks are big underdogs. This is pretty par for the course early in the season, later on my picks tend to balance out much more between underdogs and favorites.
Utah State @ Michigan State -23.5
As I mentioned in my Big Ten preview, Michigan State is a bit overrated this year. Utah State looks to be a solid bowl team that has an outside shot at winning their division in the Mountain West. My computer set this number at 14.5, so I'm picking the Aggies here.
Pick: Utah State +23.5
UNLV @ USC -26
UNLV is one of the most experienced teams in the Group of 5 this year, returning 77% of their offensive production. I have USC at #29, quite a bit below their AP ranking of 15 as they essentially start over on offense this year. The Trojans struggled out of the gate against Western Michigan last year and my computer only favors them by 14.5 here.
Pick: UNLV +26
Boise State @ Troy +10
Boise State is the consensus pick to win the Mountain West, but as I mentioned in my Mountain West preview, Wyoming is my computer's surprise pick to win the Mountain division. The Broncos are one of the top 5 teams in the Group of Five, but they don't deserve to be in the discussion for the best Group of Five team as they lost a lot, especially on offense. Troy is going to be right in the thick of things in the Sun Belt, and my computer only has them as a 2 point underdog in this game.
Pick: Troy +10
Syracuse @ Western Michigan +4.5
Western Michigan is perhaps the most experienced team in the MAC, and has many players who were on the team that played in the Cotton Bowl two years ago. Syracuse was quite bad last season outside of their fluky win over Clemson, and starts the season at #65 in my rankings. I have the Broncos a bit higher than the Orange, and thus have them projected as 5 point favorites.
Pick: Western Michigan +4.5
Old Dominion @ Liberty +6.5
This is the Flames' first game as an FBS team, and I think that they're not getting enough respect here. They won't be nearly as bad as some FBS debutantes in recent years (Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Charlotte etc.). Liberty is one of the most experienced teams in the FBS and did knock off Baylor last year, I have this game as a pick'em so I'm picking the Flames here.
Pick: Liberty +6.5
Navy @ Hawaii +10
Before the season, I projected Hawaii to be the worst team in the FBS. They surprised me, and a lot of other people, by beating Colorado State as 17 point underdogs last week. However, I still think that the Rainbow Warriors are getting too much credit here, especially against a Navy team that will contend for the AAC West. My computer likes Navy by 21 here.
Pick: Navy -10
New Mexico State @ Minnesota -21.5
The Golden Gophers have a very young team and will struggle a lot in the Big Ten west this year. New Mexico State lost big to Wyoming last weekend, but I think they should only be 9 point dogs here so I'm picking the Aggies.
Pick: New Mexico State +21.5
Akron @ Nebraska -26
Nebraska is among the most overrated teams in college football this season- I think people are really blowing the Scott Frost effect out of proportion, it'll take a while for him to build up the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was truly awful last year, one of the worst teams in the Power Five, and they don't return much from that team. Akron surprisingly won the MAC East last year, and I only have the Huskers has a 13 point favorite here.
Pick: Akron +26
Unsurprisingly for week one, most of my picks are big underdogs. This is pretty par for the course early in the season, later on my picks tend to balance out much more between underdogs and favorites.
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