2018 College Football Preview- Power Five Conferences
Last post I took a look at my model's preseason top 25, this time I'll break down my projections for all the Power Five conferences.
Numbers before a team indicates their rank out of 130, the numbers after a team indicate my projected amount of regular season wins, followed by Vegas' projected win total.
4. Georgia 10.6 10.5
30. Missouri 7.1 7
32. South Carolina 7.6 7
46. Florida 7.3 8
75. Vanderbilt 5.5 4.5
87. Kentucky 4.4 5
102. Tennessee 3.8 5.5
My projections are pretty in line with the consensus here. Georgia's biggest tests will be Auburn (8.5 point favorite), @Missouri (10 point favorite) and @South Carolina (10 point favorite) but a down division overall helps them. I'm a little bearish on Florida and quite bearish on Tennessee, where Jeremy Pruitt has inherited a pretty bare roster, I only have the Vols as favorites against East Tennessee State, UTEP and Kentucky.
West
1. Alabama 11.2 11.5
9. Auburn 8.3 9
14. Mississippi State 8.2 8
37. Texas A&M 6.7 7.5
42. LSU 6.0 7
51. Mississippi 6.2 5.5
67. Arkansas 5.2 5.5
I have Alabama as at least two touchdown favorites in every game except Auburn, where they're favored by 13. They have enough other games that they could drop, such as Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State (92%, 90% and 87% win probability, respectively) that they probably won't go 12-0 but they have a better shot than any other team in the country to do so. Auburn has the 3 big games mentioned earlier, as well as some other tricky ones (LSU, @Mississippi State, etc.). I'm bearish on LSU- they have a decent shot of missing a bowl as they return only 17% of their offensive production from last year's Citrus Bowl team. They could get some false hype early on if they beat another overrated team, Miami, in the opener.
6. Ohio State 10.1 10.5
8. Penn State 9.7 9.5
23. Michigan State 7.8 8.5
36. Michigan 6.4 9.5
49. Indiana 7.1 5
91. Maryland 4.4 4.5
120. Rutgers 2.1 4
The Big Ten is definitely the conference where my projections are the most unorthodox. At the top, I agree with the polls in having Ohio State #1 in the east and Penn State #2. I've installed the Nittany Lions as 2 point favorites in their matchup as it's in State College, although the Buckeyes are favorites in every other game. Michigan State is a bit below the national consensus- even as a Spartan fan I can admit that they punched above their weight last year and will struggle to reach double digit wins again. There's a huge discrepancy between where I have Michigan and where they are nationally- part of this is because my experience metrics only count returning experience, not transfers in, so 5-star import Shea Patterson is not included. However, the fact is the Wolverines were just not that good last year- they finished #30 in my final poll, and similarly in S&P+ and Sagarin, and return a pretty standard amount of talent from that team. Given their murderer's row of a schedule, I don't think they'll hit their 9.5 win projection. I'm also a lot higher on Indiana and lower on Rutgers than most.
West
2. Wisconsin 10.4 10
18. Northwestern 8.2 6
19. Purdue 7.5 6
26. Iowa 7.7 7.5
98. Minnesota 3.5 6
103. Nebraska 3.3 6.5
110. Illinois 3.7 3.5
As I touched on in the previous post, I think that Northwestern and Purdue are two of the most underrated teams in the country. Wisconsin has to face both schools on the road, in addition to Iowa and Penn State, which makes for a much trickier schedule for the Badgers than most realize. I'm also very low on both Minnesota and Nebraska this year. The Gophers are only favorites against New Mexico State and Illinois, while Nebraska was much worse last year than people realize. Scott Frost will do great things in Lincoln eventually but he's got a long way to go, Nebraska's non-conference schedule is tougher than it appears at first and they draw Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State from the east.
5. Clemson 9.8 11
13. Florida State 7.4 8
15. Boston College 7.4 6.5
16. NC State 8.5 7.5
22. Wake Forest 7.2 6.5
34. Louisville 7.0 7
65. Syracuse 4.6 5.5
Most people think that the Big Ten East is the toughest division in college football, but my computer thinks that it's actually the ACC Atlantic. Clemson is projected a full win under their Vegas projection despite being favorites in all 12 games, as they're only single digit favorites in their road trips to Wake Forest, Florida State and Boston College. I'm quite bullish on the middle of the division- Boston College, NC State and Wake Forest are all teams that were better than they got credit for last year. Thanks to the strength of this division they won't rack up the wins, but it's likely that at least one of these teams will outperform my expectations and make a run up the polls for the first time this decade.
Coastal
20. Miami (FL) 8.2 9.5
25. Virginia Tech 8.0 8.5
33. Duke 7.0 6
44. Georgia Tech 6.4 6.5
50. Pittsburgh 5.7 5.5
77. North Carolina 5.2 5
105. Virginia 2.7 5
The famed "Coastal chaos" is forecasted to happen once again as college football's most notoriously unpredictable division contains 6 teams between 5 and 8.5 wins. Miami is a bit overrated, as I mentioned in the previous post, while Duke has an experienced team and a manageable schedule and is not getting as much respect as they deserve. Virginia has a tough non-conference schedule, is only favored against Richmond and Liberty and will struggle once again in Bronco Mendenhall's third year at the helm.
12. Texas 8.5 8.5
21. Oklahoma State 7.9 8
27. Iowa State 7.3 6.5
28. Kansas State 7.3 6.5
35. TCU 6.6 7.5
52. West Virginia 5.8 7.5
58. Texas Tech 5.2 6
64. Baylor 5.2 6
93. Kansas 4.1 3
Oklahoma looks to be the class of the Big 12 once again as they're favored in all twelve games, with last year's primary challengers of Oklahoma State and TCU due for a big of a decline as they both have to replace good quarterbacks. Texas could finally be back as I project them 2nd in the conference- they were better than their record indicated last year, losing close games to USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Longhorns open in my system as favorites in every game except the Red River Rivalry. Iowa State will put together another strong season and certainly has the potential to upset the top teams in the conference once again, although consistency will be a problem once again as they could lose to anyone in the conference, except maybe Kansas. I'm really puzzled by all the hype West Virginia is getting- they're being called a dark horse playoff contender by many, yet they don't return that much outside of Will Grier from a team that overachieved last year. Finally, this is the 3rd year in a row I've said this, but Kansas should be significantly improved this year and gather a Big 12 win or two.
7. Washington 10.2 10
11. Stanford 8.7 8.5
39. California 7.7 6
40. Oregon 7.7 8.5
89. Washington State 4.4 6
114. Oregon State 2.3 2.5
Washington is clearly the class of the Pac-12 this year, with Stanford their biggest competitor by far. The Huskies are favorites in all 12 games, although they're only single digit favorites against Auburn, Utah, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. Stanford is favored in 10 games and with a win in Seattle will be in the driver's seat to win the conference, and make the Rose Bowl if not the playoff. Cal is my surprise team in the Pac-12- they lost a lot of close games last year, and return 86% of their offensive production from that team, they also get the other 3 likely bowl teams in the north at home. Washington State is due for a slide as they replace almost their entire offense from last year's team that really overachieved.
South
29. USC 7.3 8.5
31. Utah 7.5 7.5
45. Arizona State 6.4 5
55. Arizona 7 7.5
56. UCLA 4.7 5.5
86. Colorado 5.2 5
The Pac-12 south is the only power conference division without a team in my top 25, and with 4 teams within 1.1 projected wins of each other this division is anyone's ballgame. USC won the conference last year but returns just 28% of their offensive production and has a brutal schedule with 9 conference games, Texas and Notre Dame. Utah is projected for the most wins in the division but is not projected to win the division as they have an easier non-con than USC. I think Vegas is unfairly punishing Arizona State for the Herm Edwards hire- Todd Graham built a solid roster and a lot of those players return, it'll be tough for Herm Edwards to really run the program into the ground immediately. UCLA will be back soon under Chip Kelly, but probably not this year as they play at Oklahoma and draw the 4 likely bowl teams from the north.
69. Massachusetts 6.7 5
74. Army 7.4 7.5
84. BYU 5.2 5.5
101. Liberty 3.8 4
108. New Mexico State 5.1 6
Notre Dame is in about the right place in the polls, but they play an absolutely brutal schedule that includes 6 teams in my preseason top 25, which makes me want to sell 9 wins for them. UMass has a pretty light schedule and has a good shot to make their first bowl since coming back to FBS. Army is a favorite in 8 games and has a very good chance to take their 3rd straight off Navy this year. BYU returns over 90% of last year's offensive production but they were such a dumpster fire last year it's difficult to imagine them in a bowl this year. Liberty and New Mexico State are the two new independents, and despite super soft schedules that include a home-and-home I don't think either will make a bowl.
Coming up in my next post is a preview of the Group of 5 conferences, with win total projections and the rest of my preseason 130 team rankings.
Numbers before a team indicates their rank out of 130, the numbers after a team indicate my projected amount of regular season wins, followed by Vegas' projected win total.
SEC
East4. Georgia 10.6 10.5
30. Missouri 7.1 7
32. South Carolina 7.6 7
46. Florida 7.3 8
75. Vanderbilt 5.5 4.5
87. Kentucky 4.4 5
102. Tennessee 3.8 5.5
My projections are pretty in line with the consensus here. Georgia's biggest tests will be Auburn (8.5 point favorite), @Missouri (10 point favorite) and @South Carolina (10 point favorite) but a down division overall helps them. I'm a little bearish on Florida and quite bearish on Tennessee, where Jeremy Pruitt has inherited a pretty bare roster, I only have the Vols as favorites against East Tennessee State, UTEP and Kentucky.
West
1. Alabama 11.2 11.5
9. Auburn 8.3 9
14. Mississippi State 8.2 8
37. Texas A&M 6.7 7.5
42. LSU 6.0 7
51. Mississippi 6.2 5.5
67. Arkansas 5.2 5.5
I have Alabama as at least two touchdown favorites in every game except Auburn, where they're favored by 13. They have enough other games that they could drop, such as Louisville, LSU and Mississippi State (92%, 90% and 87% win probability, respectively) that they probably won't go 12-0 but they have a better shot than any other team in the country to do so. Auburn has the 3 big games mentioned earlier, as well as some other tricky ones (LSU, @Mississippi State, etc.). I'm bearish on LSU- they have a decent shot of missing a bowl as they return only 17% of their offensive production from last year's Citrus Bowl team. They could get some false hype early on if they beat another overrated team, Miami, in the opener.
Big Ten
East6. Ohio State 10.1 10.5
8. Penn State 9.7 9.5
23. Michigan State 7.8 8.5
36. Michigan 6.4 9.5
49. Indiana 7.1 5
91. Maryland 4.4 4.5
120. Rutgers 2.1 4
The Big Ten is definitely the conference where my projections are the most unorthodox. At the top, I agree with the polls in having Ohio State #1 in the east and Penn State #2. I've installed the Nittany Lions as 2 point favorites in their matchup as it's in State College, although the Buckeyes are favorites in every other game. Michigan State is a bit below the national consensus- even as a Spartan fan I can admit that they punched above their weight last year and will struggle to reach double digit wins again. There's a huge discrepancy between where I have Michigan and where they are nationally- part of this is because my experience metrics only count returning experience, not transfers in, so 5-star import Shea Patterson is not included. However, the fact is the Wolverines were just not that good last year- they finished #30 in my final poll, and similarly in S&P+ and Sagarin, and return a pretty standard amount of talent from that team. Given their murderer's row of a schedule, I don't think they'll hit their 9.5 win projection. I'm also a lot higher on Indiana and lower on Rutgers than most.
West
2. Wisconsin 10.4 10
18. Northwestern 8.2 6
19. Purdue 7.5 6
26. Iowa 7.7 7.5
98. Minnesota 3.5 6
103. Nebraska 3.3 6.5
110. Illinois 3.7 3.5
As I touched on in the previous post, I think that Northwestern and Purdue are two of the most underrated teams in the country. Wisconsin has to face both schools on the road, in addition to Iowa and Penn State, which makes for a much trickier schedule for the Badgers than most realize. I'm also very low on both Minnesota and Nebraska this year. The Gophers are only favorites against New Mexico State and Illinois, while Nebraska was much worse last year than people realize. Scott Frost will do great things in Lincoln eventually but he's got a long way to go, Nebraska's non-conference schedule is tougher than it appears at first and they draw Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State from the east.
ACC
Atlantic5. Clemson 9.8 11
13. Florida State 7.4 8
15. Boston College 7.4 6.5
16. NC State 8.5 7.5
22. Wake Forest 7.2 6.5
34. Louisville 7.0 7
65. Syracuse 4.6 5.5
Most people think that the Big Ten East is the toughest division in college football, but my computer thinks that it's actually the ACC Atlantic. Clemson is projected a full win under their Vegas projection despite being favorites in all 12 games, as they're only single digit favorites in their road trips to Wake Forest, Florida State and Boston College. I'm quite bullish on the middle of the division- Boston College, NC State and Wake Forest are all teams that were better than they got credit for last year. Thanks to the strength of this division they won't rack up the wins, but it's likely that at least one of these teams will outperform my expectations and make a run up the polls for the first time this decade.
Coastal
20. Miami (FL) 8.2 9.5
25. Virginia Tech 8.0 8.5
33. Duke 7.0 6
44. Georgia Tech 6.4 6.5
50. Pittsburgh 5.7 5.5
77. North Carolina 5.2 5
105. Virginia 2.7 5
The famed "Coastal chaos" is forecasted to happen once again as college football's most notoriously unpredictable division contains 6 teams between 5 and 8.5 wins. Miami is a bit overrated, as I mentioned in the previous post, while Duke has an experienced team and a manageable schedule and is not getting as much respect as they deserve. Virginia has a tough non-conference schedule, is only favored against Richmond and Liberty and will struggle once again in Bronco Mendenhall's third year at the helm.
Big 12
3. Oklahoma 10.4 1012. Texas 8.5 8.5
21. Oklahoma State 7.9 8
27. Iowa State 7.3 6.5
28. Kansas State 7.3 6.5
35. TCU 6.6 7.5
52. West Virginia 5.8 7.5
58. Texas Tech 5.2 6
64. Baylor 5.2 6
93. Kansas 4.1 3
Oklahoma looks to be the class of the Big 12 once again as they're favored in all twelve games, with last year's primary challengers of Oklahoma State and TCU due for a big of a decline as they both have to replace good quarterbacks. Texas could finally be back as I project them 2nd in the conference- they were better than their record indicated last year, losing close games to USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Longhorns open in my system as favorites in every game except the Red River Rivalry. Iowa State will put together another strong season and certainly has the potential to upset the top teams in the conference once again, although consistency will be a problem once again as they could lose to anyone in the conference, except maybe Kansas. I'm really puzzled by all the hype West Virginia is getting- they're being called a dark horse playoff contender by many, yet they don't return that much outside of Will Grier from a team that overachieved last year. Finally, this is the 3rd year in a row I've said this, but Kansas should be significantly improved this year and gather a Big 12 win or two.
Pac-12
North7. Washington 10.2 10
11. Stanford 8.7 8.5
39. California 7.7 6
40. Oregon 7.7 8.5
89. Washington State 4.4 6
114. Oregon State 2.3 2.5
Washington is clearly the class of the Pac-12 this year, with Stanford their biggest competitor by far. The Huskies are favorites in all 12 games, although they're only single digit favorites against Auburn, Utah, Oregon, Cal and Stanford. Stanford is favored in 10 games and with a win in Seattle will be in the driver's seat to win the conference, and make the Rose Bowl if not the playoff. Cal is my surprise team in the Pac-12- they lost a lot of close games last year, and return 86% of their offensive production from that team, they also get the other 3 likely bowl teams in the north at home. Washington State is due for a slide as they replace almost their entire offense from last year's team that really overachieved.
South
29. USC 7.3 8.5
31. Utah 7.5 7.5
45. Arizona State 6.4 5
55. Arizona 7 7.5
56. UCLA 4.7 5.5
86. Colorado 5.2 5
The Pac-12 south is the only power conference division without a team in my top 25, and with 4 teams within 1.1 projected wins of each other this division is anyone's ballgame. USC won the conference last year but returns just 28% of their offensive production and has a brutal schedule with 9 conference games, Texas and Notre Dame. Utah is projected for the most wins in the division but is not projected to win the division as they have an easier non-con than USC. I think Vegas is unfairly punishing Arizona State for the Herm Edwards hire- Todd Graham built a solid roster and a lot of those players return, it'll be tough for Herm Edwards to really run the program into the ground immediately. UCLA will be back soon under Chip Kelly, but probably not this year as they play at Oklahoma and draw the 4 likely bowl teams from the north.
Independents
17. Notre Dame 7.6 969. Massachusetts 6.7 5
74. Army 7.4 7.5
84. BYU 5.2 5.5
101. Liberty 3.8 4
108. New Mexico State 5.1 6
Notre Dame is in about the right place in the polls, but they play an absolutely brutal schedule that includes 6 teams in my preseason top 25, which makes me want to sell 9 wins for them. UMass has a pretty light schedule and has a good shot to make their first bowl since coming back to FBS. Army is a favorite in 8 games and has a very good chance to take their 3rd straight off Navy this year. BYU returns over 90% of last year's offensive production but they were such a dumpster fire last year it's difficult to imagine them in a bowl this year. Liberty and New Mexico State are the two new independents, and despite super soft schedules that include a home-and-home I don't think either will make a bowl.
Coming up in my next post is a preview of the Group of 5 conferences, with win total projections and the rest of my preseason 130 team rankings.
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