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Week 1 is finally here, which means it's time for my first picks of the season. As is usually the case, there's far more good opportunities at the beginning of the season than there is later in the season, as most power ratings begin to converge. While I have 9 picks this week, this is almost certainly the most I'll have all season as my ratings come in line with Vegas'. Boise State @ Florida State As I discussed in my  preseason win total projections , there's no team I'm more bearish on than Florida State. The Seminoles were a disaster last year and don't have much in the way of returning experience. This line looks marginally worse than it did earlier this week before the game moved to Tallahassee, but I'm all over Boise State. Boise State +6.5 -104 (4 units) Purdue @ Nevada The other power conference team that I thought was a massive sell in my preseason projections was Purdue. The Boilers are quite young this year, and were not a good team d...

For the next installment in my college football preview series, I'm taking a look at every FBS team's win totals and giving my picks. For most teams, my expected number of wins is pretty close to the consensus line, but there's a handful of teams I'm more bullish or bearish on than most. The following picks are in decreasing order of confidence. Florida State: Under 7.5 +110 (12 units) Florida State was a major disappointment last year, starting the year in the preseason top 25 and staggering to a 5-7 finish in Willie Taggart's first year. Most of their losses were not even close, as they only lost one game by fewer than 20 points. They return a slightly above average amount of defensive production and a slightly below average amount of offensive production from a team that finished #85 in my ratings last year, and is starting even below that this year. And while the ACC may not be that strong at the top, the league is not exactly crawling with easy wins- I only...

As college football season draws near, I'm going to be releasing a series of season preview posts in the next week. Today, I'm kicking things off with my full 130 team preseason ratings, broken down by conference. Later in the week, there will be team win projections, season simulations and conference previews. SEC West 2. Alabama 5. LSU 10. Auburn 13. Texas A&M 16. Mississippi State 117. Arkansas 119. Mississippi Once again, the SEC West is shaping up to be the toughest division in the country. Alabama is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack, and are heavy favorites to repeat especially considering they play LSU at home. LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M all have the potential to make a playoff push but face brutal schedules. East 3. Georgia 19. Florida 20. Missouri 30. Kentucky 58. South Carolina 60. Vanderbilt 62. Tennessee Georgia is the clear favorite to win their 3rd straight SEC East crown. The Bulldogs play nearest...

College football season is now less than 3 weeks away, which calls for an updated version of my top 25. My model's preseason ratings are relatively similar to last year's ratings- Clemson, Alabama and Georgia remain on top and most of these 25 teams were in my final top 25 of last season. However, some teams are on the move: Texas and LSU should be treated as serious playoff contenders, while Florida and Michigan may have a ways to go still. Numbers in parenthesis indicate a team's finish in my 2018 ratings. 1. Clemson (#1) After finishing last year a solid #1, the Tigers start 2019 at the top spot. They have one of the highest preseason ratings of all time in my system, as they return much more of their offensive production than is typical for a defending national champion. As the only ACC team in the top 20, they figure to be double digit favorites in every game until January. 2. Alabama (#2) The Tide check in at #2 after a disappointing end to 2018. While Tua...