College Football Preseason Top 25
College football season is now less than 3 weeks away, which calls for an updated version of my top 25. My model's preseason ratings are relatively similar to last year's ratings- Clemson, Alabama and Georgia remain on top and most of these 25 teams were in my final top 25 of last season. However, some teams are on the move: Texas and LSU should be treated as serious playoff contenders, while Florida and Michigan may have a ways to go still. Numbers in parenthesis indicate a team's finish in my 2018 ratings.
Missed the Cut: Boise State, Utah, Wake Forest, Penn State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Boston College, Army, Stanford, Washington State
1. Clemson (#1)
After finishing last year a solid #1, the Tigers start 2019 at the top spot. They have one of the highest preseason ratings of all time in my system, as they return much more of their offensive production than is typical for a defending national champion. As the only ACC team in the top 20, they figure to be double digit favorites in every game until January.
2. Alabama (#2)
The Tide check in at #2 after a disappointing end to 2018. While Tua is back, the offensive line is relatively inexperienced and there is massive coaching turnover once again. Clemson has a dominating advantage over Alabama right now- I'd have the Tigers as a 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field right now.
3. Georgia (#3)
The top 3 from my final 2018 ratings remain in order. The Dawgs are seriously lacking at receiver, but return a decent amount of their core from last year's team that went toe to toe with Alabama. Georgia starts quite a bit behind the Crimson Tide though- in a hypothetical SEC championship game between the two, Alabama would be a 5.5 point favorite.
4. Texas (#8)
Clocking in at #4 is Georgia's Sugar Bowl opponent from last year. I was surprised to see the Longhorns so high given that they're significantly lower in most other computer rating systems I've seen. However, the 'Horns rate well in the most important returning experience categories (QB and O-line), which puts them here.
5. LSU (#11)
I imagine that many preseason top 25's will have the Tigers in this spot. They certainly have the talent to compete with the sport's top tier, but winning 11 or 12 games in the rugged SEC West will be tough. LSU must travel to two of my top 4 teams in addition to playing 4 other teams in my top 20.
6. Ohio State (#4)
The Buckeyes remain my favorite to win the Big Ten despite the loss of Dwayne Haskins and transition to Ryan Day. They're going to be a young team this year, especially on the offensive side of the ball, and I currently have them in a favorite in their first 11 games. However, they travel to Ann Arbor for the Game where I have Michigan as a 2 point favorite.
7. UCF (#12)
I was quite surprised to see UCF so high in my preseason rankings, but everyone from #4 to #17 is very closely bunched together. The Knights have to replace McKenzie Milton, but they haven't lost a conference game in 2 years and remain the strongest G5 team.
8. Washington (#9)
The Huskies are once again the best team in the Pac-12, and bring in Georgia transfer Jacob Eason behind center. They played themselves out of playoff contention relatively early last season, and a tough schedule awaits this year but they're as well-equipped as any Pac-12 team to reach the playoff.
9. Oklahoma (#5)
The Sooners will take a bit of a step back from back-to-back playoff appearances and Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks as #1 overall pick Kyler Murray leaves town. They're not my favorite to win the Big 12 for the first time in years, but are an easy #2.
10. Auburn (#10)
The Tigers are the 4th SEC team in my top 10, and the 3rd team from the west. That means the schedule is brutal, but a phenomenal defense and an experienced offensive line means that they have the talent to play with the big boys in the SEC.
11. Notre Dame (#6)
The Irish will take a bit of a step back from last year's semifinal team, but if all the chips fall right they have a chance at getting back to the playoff. They travel to Georgia and Michigan in the first half of the season, but should be favored in their other 10 games.
12. Oregon (#36)
The Ducks return 10 of their 11 starters on offense, including potential #1 overall pick Justin Herbert at quarterback. Their playoff hopes could hinge on their season opening game with Auburn, and they also have to play the crucial game with Washington in Seattle. They're going to be one of the most improved teams in the country, and have an outside shot at the playoff.
13. Texas A&M (#13)
Despite being a top 15 team in the preseason, Texas A&M plays 5 teams above them in these rankings and will likely be underdogs in 4 of them. Kellen Mond is back to lead Jimbo Fisher's second team in College Station, and while an upset of one of the big guns is quite possible, true playoff contention is a year away.
14. Michigan (#18)
Despite being my #2 Big Ten team, I have the Wolverines favored in 11 games (only underdogs at Wisconsin) as they get Ohio State and Notre Dame at home. Much has been made about the hire of new OC Josh Gattis, but the Wolverines will have to shore up the defense that allowed 62 points to Ohio State to be a serious playoff contender.
15. Iowa (#13)
The Big Ten West could be the most competitive division in the Power Five, and Iowa is my pick tow in it. The Hawkeyes were a borderline top 10 team last year and had some bad luck in close games, but their underlying stats were strong.
16. Mississippi State (#7)
The Bulldogs are the first team in these rankings who are not also in the AP top 25. They were a consensus top 15 team in computer systems at the end of last season, and while they're relatively inexperienced they still have talent all over the defense. However, thanks to the rugged SEC west they'll be underdogs in 4 conference games.
17. Appalachian State (#27)
Despite being behind UCF in these ratings, the Mountaineers are my pick to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Year's Six. They won 11 games last year and return almost every offensive contributor from that team, I favor them in all 12 games this year, even the road trips to South Carolina and UNC.
18. Oklahoma State (#21)
The Cowboys had a wild season last year, beating Texas and West Virginia as underdogs yet losing big to Texas Tech and Kansas State. They get Bedlam at home this year, and if any team is going to prevent a Red River Rivalry rematch in the Big 12 championship game it is most likely O.K. State.
19. Florida (#16)
Florida was never as highly rated in my computer system as the polls last year, and that carries over to this year. The Gators are in the top 10 of the coaches poll and getting some buzz as a playoff contender, but must replace almost their entire offensive line from a team that was lucky to win double digit games last year.
20. Missouri (#15)
Missouri has the shadow of their bowl ban hanging over them, which is a shame because the Tigers are going to have their best team in recent years this year. A light schedule should see them favored in their first 8 games until a November clash with Georgia.
21. Michigan State (#39)
The Spartans were a bit of a disappointment last year, with their offense screeching to a halt at the end of the year. Scoring points will remain a problem, but MSU's defense is unquestionably elite. The Spartans must travel to both Ann Arbor and Columbus, but were in that position in 2015 when they won the Big Ten and made the Playoff.
22. Syracuse (#19)
It's a bit strange seeing Syracuse in preseason top 25's, but the Orange posted their best year in recent memory last year and nearly pulled off a second upset of Clemson. While the ACC is lacking elite teams other than Clemson, plenty of tricky games against teams capable of winning 8 or 9 games dot Syracuse's schedule.
23. Minnesota (#29)
I was surprised to see the Golden Gophers receive so little love in the preseason coaches poll, as they finished last year very strong with big wins against Wisconsin and Georgia Tech. Save a trip to Fresno State, the schedule is decently backloaded, giving Minnesota a chance to enter November playing for a Big Ten title.
24. Wisconsin (#23)
The Badgers were a major disappointment last season, starting the year off in my preseason top 5 only to tumble down to the Pinstripe Bowl. Jonathan Taylor returns with his eyes on the Heisman, but Wisconsin has the toughest schedule of the contenders in the West as they draw Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State from the east.
25. Iowa State (#37)
Iowa State looked like a legitimate Big 12 contender at points last season, and came close to playing for the conference title. Iowa State is in many preseason top 25's for the first time in a long time, and plays its 3 games against the top teams in the conference in consecutive weeks towards the end of the season.
8. Washington (#9)
The Huskies are once again the best team in the Pac-12, and bring in Georgia transfer Jacob Eason behind center. They played themselves out of playoff contention relatively early last season, and a tough schedule awaits this year but they're as well-equipped as any Pac-12 team to reach the playoff.
9. Oklahoma (#5)
The Sooners will take a bit of a step back from back-to-back playoff appearances and Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks as #1 overall pick Kyler Murray leaves town. They're not my favorite to win the Big 12 for the first time in years, but are an easy #2.
10. Auburn (#10)
The Tigers are the 4th SEC team in my top 10, and the 3rd team from the west. That means the schedule is brutal, but a phenomenal defense and an experienced offensive line means that they have the talent to play with the big boys in the SEC.
11. Notre Dame (#6)
The Irish will take a bit of a step back from last year's semifinal team, but if all the chips fall right they have a chance at getting back to the playoff. They travel to Georgia and Michigan in the first half of the season, but should be favored in their other 10 games.
12. Oregon (#36)
The Ducks return 10 of their 11 starters on offense, including potential #1 overall pick Justin Herbert at quarterback. Their playoff hopes could hinge on their season opening game with Auburn, and they also have to play the crucial game with Washington in Seattle. They're going to be one of the most improved teams in the country, and have an outside shot at the playoff.
13. Texas A&M (#13)
Despite being a top 15 team in the preseason, Texas A&M plays 5 teams above them in these rankings and will likely be underdogs in 4 of them. Kellen Mond is back to lead Jimbo Fisher's second team in College Station, and while an upset of one of the big guns is quite possible, true playoff contention is a year away.
14. Michigan (#18)
Despite being my #2 Big Ten team, I have the Wolverines favored in 11 games (only underdogs at Wisconsin) as they get Ohio State and Notre Dame at home. Much has been made about the hire of new OC Josh Gattis, but the Wolverines will have to shore up the defense that allowed 62 points to Ohio State to be a serious playoff contender.
15. Iowa (#13)
The Big Ten West could be the most competitive division in the Power Five, and Iowa is my pick tow in it. The Hawkeyes were a borderline top 10 team last year and had some bad luck in close games, but their underlying stats were strong.
16. Mississippi State (#7)
The Bulldogs are the first team in these rankings who are not also in the AP top 25. They were a consensus top 15 team in computer systems at the end of last season, and while they're relatively inexperienced they still have talent all over the defense. However, thanks to the rugged SEC west they'll be underdogs in 4 conference games.
17. Appalachian State (#27)
Despite being behind UCF in these ratings, the Mountaineers are my pick to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Year's Six. They won 11 games last year and return almost every offensive contributor from that team, I favor them in all 12 games this year, even the road trips to South Carolina and UNC.
18. Oklahoma State (#21)
The Cowboys had a wild season last year, beating Texas and West Virginia as underdogs yet losing big to Texas Tech and Kansas State. They get Bedlam at home this year, and if any team is going to prevent a Red River Rivalry rematch in the Big 12 championship game it is most likely O.K. State.
19. Florida (#16)
Florida was never as highly rated in my computer system as the polls last year, and that carries over to this year. The Gators are in the top 10 of the coaches poll and getting some buzz as a playoff contender, but must replace almost their entire offensive line from a team that was lucky to win double digit games last year.
20. Missouri (#15)
Missouri has the shadow of their bowl ban hanging over them, which is a shame because the Tigers are going to have their best team in recent years this year. A light schedule should see them favored in their first 8 games until a November clash with Georgia.
21. Michigan State (#39)
The Spartans were a bit of a disappointment last year, with their offense screeching to a halt at the end of the year. Scoring points will remain a problem, but MSU's defense is unquestionably elite. The Spartans must travel to both Ann Arbor and Columbus, but were in that position in 2015 when they won the Big Ten and made the Playoff.
22. Syracuse (#19)
It's a bit strange seeing Syracuse in preseason top 25's, but the Orange posted their best year in recent memory last year and nearly pulled off a second upset of Clemson. While the ACC is lacking elite teams other than Clemson, plenty of tricky games against teams capable of winning 8 or 9 games dot Syracuse's schedule.
23. Minnesota (#29)
I was surprised to see the Golden Gophers receive so little love in the preseason coaches poll, as they finished last year very strong with big wins against Wisconsin and Georgia Tech. Save a trip to Fresno State, the schedule is decently backloaded, giving Minnesota a chance to enter November playing for a Big Ten title.
24. Wisconsin (#23)
The Badgers were a major disappointment last season, starting the year off in my preseason top 5 only to tumble down to the Pinstripe Bowl. Jonathan Taylor returns with his eyes on the Heisman, but Wisconsin has the toughest schedule of the contenders in the West as they draw Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State from the east.
25. Iowa State (#37)
Iowa State looked like a legitimate Big 12 contender at points last season, and came close to playing for the conference title. Iowa State is in many preseason top 25's for the first time in a long time, and plays its 3 games against the top teams in the conference in consecutive weeks towards the end of the season.
Missed the Cut: Boise State, Utah, Wake Forest, Penn State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Boston College, Army, Stanford, Washington State
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