College Football Week 1 Picks
Week 1 is finally here, which means it's time for my first picks of the season. As is usually the case, there's far more good opportunities at the beginning of the season than there is later in the season, as most power ratings begin to converge. While I have 9 picks this week, this is almost certainly the most I'll have all season as my ratings come in line with Vegas'.
Boise State @ Florida State
As I discussed in my preseason win total projections, there's no team I'm more bearish on than Florida State. The Seminoles were a disaster last year and don't have much in the way of returning experience. This line looks marginally worse than it did earlier this week before the game moved to Tallahassee, but I'm all over Boise State.
Boise State +6.5 -104 (4 units)
Purdue @ Nevada
The other power conference team that I thought was a massive sell in my preseason projections was Purdue. The Boilers are quite young this year, and were not a good team down the stretch last season. Nevada is right on the cusp of being a bowl team this year, and should not be getting 11 points at home against a team that's only a few points better than them.
Nevada +11 -110 (3 units)
Fresno State @ USC
Fresno State is going to take a bit of a step back from last season, but is still my pick to face Boise State in the Mountain West championship game. USC, on the other hand, is projected as a 6-6 team. I don't see a ton of separation between these two teams, they're both around the 40th or so best team in the country. USC is getting a decent amount of buzz this year as people search for a Pac-12 South champion but I'm on the Bulldogs here.
Fresno State +13.5 -106 (3 units)
Mississippi @ Memphis
Ole Miss was another one of the teams that I took the team total under for in my preseason picks, and I'm picking against them here as well. Memphis is a decent team that will contend for the AAC west title, and Ole Miss is one of the 25 or so worst teams in FBS. People don't realize how bad the worst SEC West teams are- I'm picking Memphis here.
Memphis -4.5 -104 (3 units)
Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Boston College is one of the better teams in the ACC, I have them as the 4th highest rated team in this conference. Virginia Tech is about a tier worse, and it should be a mild underdog here in my system, not a 4.5 point favorite.
Boston College +4.5 -106 (3 units)
Georgia State @ Tennessee
This line is being priced as if Georgia State is one of the worst teams in FBS, which is not the case. They have an outside shot at a bowl and are a middling team in the Sun Belt. Tennessee is on the cusp of being a bowl team this year, but should not be almost a 4 touchdown favorite over anyone except the absolute worst of the FBS.
Georgia State +26 -110 (2 units)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Like Ole Miss, Louisville is another power conference team which is truly among the worst in FBS and not being priced that way. Notre Dame is around the 10th or 12th best team in the country, and should be a 4 touchdown or so favorite against a team that's bottom 20 in the FBS like Louisville is in my system.
Notre Dame -18 -103 (2 units)
Georgia Southern @ LSU
Georgia Southern was quite a solid team last year, upsetting Appalachian State and having a big bounce back year after a horrible 2017. While LSU is a definite top 10 team, there's no reason for them to be favored by four touchdowns against a team as good as Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern +27 -107 (1 unit)
Houston vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is not the dominant favorite to win the Big 12 that they've been portrayed as by many this preseason. While they're definitely a top 10 team, Houston is about as good as some middling Big 12 team like Baylor and I doubt Oklahoma would be favored by 23 against them. My model has this spread closer to Oklahoma by 14.
Houston +23 -104 (1 unit)
Boise State @ Florida State
As I discussed in my preseason win total projections, there's no team I'm more bearish on than Florida State. The Seminoles were a disaster last year and don't have much in the way of returning experience. This line looks marginally worse than it did earlier this week before the game moved to Tallahassee, but I'm all over Boise State.
Boise State +6.5 -104 (4 units)
Purdue @ Nevada
The other power conference team that I thought was a massive sell in my preseason projections was Purdue. The Boilers are quite young this year, and were not a good team down the stretch last season. Nevada is right on the cusp of being a bowl team this year, and should not be getting 11 points at home against a team that's only a few points better than them.
Nevada +11 -110 (3 units)
Fresno State @ USC
Fresno State is going to take a bit of a step back from last season, but is still my pick to face Boise State in the Mountain West championship game. USC, on the other hand, is projected as a 6-6 team. I don't see a ton of separation between these two teams, they're both around the 40th or so best team in the country. USC is getting a decent amount of buzz this year as people search for a Pac-12 South champion but I'm on the Bulldogs here.
Fresno State +13.5 -106 (3 units)
Mississippi @ Memphis
Ole Miss was another one of the teams that I took the team total under for in my preseason picks, and I'm picking against them here as well. Memphis is a decent team that will contend for the AAC west title, and Ole Miss is one of the 25 or so worst teams in FBS. People don't realize how bad the worst SEC West teams are- I'm picking Memphis here.
Memphis -4.5 -104 (3 units)
Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Boston College is one of the better teams in the ACC, I have them as the 4th highest rated team in this conference. Virginia Tech is about a tier worse, and it should be a mild underdog here in my system, not a 4.5 point favorite.
Boston College +4.5 -106 (3 units)
Georgia State @ Tennessee
This line is being priced as if Georgia State is one of the worst teams in FBS, which is not the case. They have an outside shot at a bowl and are a middling team in the Sun Belt. Tennessee is on the cusp of being a bowl team this year, but should not be almost a 4 touchdown favorite over anyone except the absolute worst of the FBS.
Georgia State +26 -110 (2 units)
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Like Ole Miss, Louisville is another power conference team which is truly among the worst in FBS and not being priced that way. Notre Dame is around the 10th or 12th best team in the country, and should be a 4 touchdown or so favorite against a team that's bottom 20 in the FBS like Louisville is in my system.
Notre Dame -18 -103 (2 units)
Georgia Southern @ LSU
Georgia Southern was quite a solid team last year, upsetting Appalachian State and having a big bounce back year after a horrible 2017. While LSU is a definite top 10 team, there's no reason for them to be favored by four touchdowns against a team as good as Georgia Southern.
Georgia Southern +27 -107 (1 unit)
Houston vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is not the dominant favorite to win the Big 12 that they've been portrayed as by many this preseason. While they're definitely a top 10 team, Houston is about as good as some middling Big 12 team like Baylor and I doubt Oklahoma would be favored by 23 against them. My model has this spread closer to Oklahoma by 14.
Houston +23 -104 (1 unit)
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