College Football Preseason Ratings by Conference

As college football season draws near, I'm going to be releasing a series of season preview posts in the next week. Today, I'm kicking things off with my full 130 team preseason ratings, broken down by conference. Later in the week, there will be team win projections, season simulations and conference previews.

SEC

West

2. Alabama

5. LSU

10. Auburn

13. Texas A&M

16. Mississippi State

117. Arkansas

119. Mississippi

Once again, the SEC West is shaping up to be the toughest division in the country. Alabama is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack, and are heavy favorites to repeat especially considering they play LSU at home. LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M all have the potential to make a playoff push but face brutal schedules.

East

3. Georgia

19. Florida

20. Missouri

30. Kentucky

58. South Carolina

60. Vanderbilt

62. Tennessee

Georgia is the clear favorite to win their 3rd straight SEC East crown. The Bulldogs play nearest competitor Florida in Jacksonville, but draw Auburn and Texas A&M out of the west. Missouri is facing a bowl ban and is thus ineligible for the division crown. Kentucky is looking to build off of last year's banner season, while Tennessee looks to make it back to a bowl for the first time in 3 years.

Big Ten

East

6. Ohio State

14. Michigan

21. Michigan State

29. Penn State

41. Indiana

78. Maryland

91. Rutgers

While Ohio State is 8 spots ahead of Michigan, the Wolverines are favored in The Game by virtue of it being in Ann Arbor. There's not a ton of separation between the top few teams in the east, with any of the top 4 capable of winning the division. Indiana looks to have their best team in years and should be a bowl team, while Rutgers will also be significantly improved.

West

15. Iowa

23. Minnesota

24. Wisconsin

52. Nebraska

55. Northwestern

92. Purdue

114. Illinois

The Big Ten West is shaping up to be the most competitive division in the Power Five, and I've seen at least 4 different teams picked to win the division. While I'm picking Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are very realistic options as well. Nebraska should be much improved, but the analytics don't really support their position as a fringe top 25 team in the polls.

Big 12

4. Texas

9. Oklahoma

18. Oklahoma State

25. Iowa State

31. Texas Tech

37. Kansas State

38. TCU

44. West Virginia

65. Baylor

70. Kansas

The Big 12 could be the most wide open power conference, although the regular season race will likely come down to Texas and Oklahoma's showdown in Dallas. Oklahoma State should be significantly improved, and Iowa State has both the talent and schedule to contend for a berth in the championship game. At the bottom of the league, West Virginia will take a big step back from last year's Gator Bowl team while Kansas will be improved.

ACC

Atlantic

1. Clemson

22. Syracuse

28. Wake Forest

32. Boston College

93. NC State

95. Florida State

123. Louisville

Clemson is obviously the runaway favorite to win the Atlantic. Behind them, Syracuse is coming off their best season of the decade and is rated here similarly to their position in the polls. Wake Forest and Boston College should be solid bowl teams once again. I'm much lower on Florida State than the national consensus, as they have a below average amount of talent returning from a team that was pretty abysmal last year.

Coastal

36. Virginia

43. Miami (FL)

50. Duke

53. Pittsburgh

66. Virginia Tech

72. Georgia Tech

89. North Carolina

Forget what I said about the Big Ten West, the ACC Coastal is the most wide open division in the Power Five. Virginia is my very tentative pick to win the division, and it would make 7 different division champions in 7 years if they pull it off. Georgia Tech and North Carolina are breaking in brand new coaches and will struggle to get to bowl eligibility.

Pac-12

North

8. Washington

12. Oregon

34. Stanford

35. Washington State

73. California

98. Oregon State

The Pac-12 North, and likely the conference title as a whole, will come down to Washington and Oregon. The Huskies get the big game at home, but have a tough schedule otherwise includes games against Utah and Stanford. Stanford and Washington State are capable of upsetting the top teams in the division, but are longer shots to win the conference.

South

27. Utah

39. USC

47. Arizona State

67. UCLA

69. Arizona

86. Colorado

Ever since USC started going off the rails a few years ago, the Pac-12 South has been a mess. Utah is a trendy pick to not only win the division but make the playoff, although inexperienced line play keeps them out of my preseason top 25. UCLA should be significantly improved and has a good shot at getting to a bowl in Chip Kelly's second season.

Independents

11. Notre Dame

33. Army

49. BYU

83. Liberty

124. New Mexico State

127. Massachusetts

Notre Dame has an outside shot at a repeat playoff experience, although they face tough trips to Michigan and Georgia. Army has a great shot at another double digit win season. New Mexico State and Massachusetts have inexperienced squads and will be among the worst teams in FBS.

American

East

7. UCF

46. Cincinnati

54. Temple

81. USF

118. East Carolina

129. Connecticut

West

56. Houston

57. Memphis

96. Tulane

102. SMU

103. Navy

104. Tulsa

UCF is the class of the American for the 3rd year in a row. After that comes a second tier of Cincinnati, Temple, Houston and Memphis. All four teams are capable of winning double digit games and making a run at the conference title, but it's UCF's league to lose.

Mountain West

Mountain

26. Boise State

51. Utah State

77. Wyoming

79. Air Force

122. New Mexico

128. Colorado State

West

40. Fresno State

84. San Diego State

99. Hawaii

100. Nevada

105. UNLV

111. San Jose State

Boise State and Fresno State have met in the Mountain West championship game the last two years, and it looks like the most likely outcome this year again. Boise State starts with a big non conference game against Florida State, and could be favored in 11 games. Utah State and San Diego State are coming off decent seasons, and will be the second tier of the conference.

Mid-American

East

45. Ohio

80. Buffalo

82. Miami (OH)

106. Kent State

110. Akron

126. Bowling Green

West

68. Northern Illinois

74. Toledo

94. Eastern Michigan

97. Western Michigan

108. Ball State

112. Central Michigan

It's been more than forty years since Ohio won the MAC, but they're the clear class of the conference this year. Buffalo will take a step back from last year's 10 win team as they replace almost their entire offense. The West is a lot murkier- I'm picking Northern Illinois to repeat, but there's four teams that could legitimately win the division.

Conference USA

East

48. Marshall

63. FIU

76. Florida Atlantic

85. Western Kentucky

107. Middle Tennessee

113. Charlotte

121. Old Dominion

West

42. Southern Miss

75. Louisiana Tech

87. UAB

90. North Texas

116. UTEP

120. UTSA

Conference USA is probably the most wide open of the G5 conferences this year, and I'm one of the few who is picking Southern Miss to win the league. They may have missed a bowl last year, but they return nearly their entire offense and look to be the best team in the league. In the East, it's a pretty tight race between Marshall and the Florida schools, but I'm picking the Thundering Herd to win the division for the first time in 5 years.

Sun Belt

East

17. Appalachian State

59. Troy

71. Georgia Southern

109. Georgia State

115. Coastal Carolina

West

61. ULM

64. UL Lafayette

88. Arkansas State

101. Texas State

130. South Alabama

No team, aside from Clemson, is a bigger favorite to win their conference than Appalachian State is. The Mountaineers have a legitimate top 25 team and will be favorites in all 10 games this year. After them, the second tier of the conference is quite strong as the Sun Belt looks like the 3rd or 4th best G5 league this year, ahead of the MAC and/or Conference USA.