College Football Win Total Picks 2019
For the next installment in my college football preview series, I'm taking a look at every FBS team's win totals and giving my picks. For most teams, my expected number of wins is pretty close to the consensus line, but there's a handful of teams I'm more bullish or bearish on than most. The following picks are in decreasing order of confidence.
Florida State: Under 7.5 +110 (12 units)
Florida State was a major disappointment last year, starting the year in the preseason top 25 and staggering to a 5-7 finish in Willie Taggart's first year. Most of their losses were not even close, as they only lost one game by fewer than 20 points. They return a slightly above average amount of defensive production and a slightly below average amount of offensive production from a team that finished #85 in my ratings last year, and is starting even below that this year. And while the ACC may not be that strong at the top, the league is not exactly crawling with easy wins- I only favor the Seminoles against Louisville and NC State in conference play. Add in non conference games against Boise State and Florida, and I think FSU will be hard pressed to get up to 8 wins this year.
ULM: Over 5 -130 (10 units)
My first over pick is a little bit off the beaten path, but the Warhawks are my pick to win the Sun Belt West and take on Appalachian State for the conference title. ULM went 6-6 last year, but was not invited to a bowl game. The data shows that quarterback and line play are the most important areas to have experience, and ULM has a third year starting QB in Caleb Evans, and every single starter on both the offensive and defensive lines is back. There are four easy wins on the schedule in Grambling, South Alabama, Georgia State and Coastal Carolina, and then three more games I favor them in. I have the Warhawks at #61 in my preseason ratings, 3rd highest in the Sun Belt.
Purdue: Under 7 -145 (8 units)
Purdue got a lot of attention last year for beating Ohio State at home, but the fact is that they were just an average team last year. They lost to Eastern Michigan at home last year, and got run out of the building by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. All of this led to them finishing #61 in my final ratings, around teams like Temple and Arizona. This year, while stud WR Rondale Moore is back, he's one of only 3 returning starters on offense. Purdue takes a major hit in my preseason ratings for inexperienced line play, and others agree as they rank 126/130 on Phil Steele's experience chart. The schedule is no cakewalk either- Illinois is the only free win as all 3 non-conference games are tricky. The Boilermakers could be underdogs in as many as 9 games this year and clock in outside the top 80 of my preseason ratings.
Wake Forest: Over 6 -130 (6 units)
Wake Forest is a team that many wrote off last year, but exploded at the end of the season, winning two of their last 3 regular season games as double digit underdogs to make a bowl. After the bowl win over Memphis, they finished #45 in my final ratings last year. The surge at the end of the season coincided with QB Jamie Newman taking the helm, and he's back along with 3 multi-year O-line starters. I give Wake a 50/50 chance of making it through a soft non-conference schedule 4-0, and I see the Demon Deacons as favorites in 8 games this year (underdogs to BC, VT, Clemson, Syracuse). They'll be competitive in every game but Clemson, and I have them just outside my preseason top 25.
San Jose State: Over 2.5 -180 (6 units)
San Jose State is not going to be a good football team this year, but to win 3 or more games against their schedule, you just simply have to avoid being one of the 5 or so worst teams in the country. I think that the Spartans are better than that- they finished #109/130 in my ratings last year, and return multi-year starting QB Josh Love as well as 4/5 offensive lineman. I have them #112 in my preseason ratings this year. Breaking down the schedule, Northern Colorado was one of the worst FCS teams last year and is an easy win. I have SJSU as favorites against Tulsa and New Mexico, and less than a touchdown underdogs against Arkansas, Nevada and UNLV. This team is more likely to win 4 or 5 games this year than 2 or 3 and is not one of the FBS' worst.
Mississippi: Under 5 -140 (6 units)
Ole Miss started 5-2 last year, and then the wheels fell off as they lost their last 5. They do return 10 starters on defense, but they had arguable the worst defense in the Power Five last year, shown most notably when giving up 41 points to SIU. Most of the games on their schedule are already decided- they're massive favorites against SE Louisiana and New Mexico State, and 20+ point underdogs against Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State. That leaves four games up in the air- @Memphis, Arkansas, Cal, Vanderbilt. I expect them to win 1 or 2 of those games, and it's unlikely they win all 4 to go over 5 wins.
Virginia Tech Under 8 +120 (4 units)
Everyone is scrambling to figure out who is going to win the ACC Coastal, and many people have decided on Virginia Tech. I'm struggling to figure out why, as the Hokies were pretty average last year, finishing outside the top 60 in my final ratings. They'll likely be better than they were last year, as they return 10 starters on defense in Bud Foster's swan song year, but they have a very inexperienced offensive line and question marks at the skill positions. They have 3 easy wins in ODU, Furman and Rhode Island, but people underestimate the strength of the middle of the ACC. I have them favored in only 6 games this year, and they're going to have to win a lot of road games that are tougher than they appear to go over 8 wins.
Other picks I like, but not quite as much as the ones above, include:
Akron Over 3.5 +130 (2 units)
Baylor Under 7.5 +100 (2 units)
Kansas Over 3 +100 (2 units)
Liberty Over 5.5 -140 (2 units)
Michigan Under 9.5 +175 (2 units)
Nebraska Under 8.5 -115 (2 units)
Oklahoma Under 10.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky Over 5 -135 (2 units)
Western Michigan Under 7.5 +105 (2 units)
Florida State: Under 7.5 +110 (12 units)
Florida State was a major disappointment last year, starting the year in the preseason top 25 and staggering to a 5-7 finish in Willie Taggart's first year. Most of their losses were not even close, as they only lost one game by fewer than 20 points. They return a slightly above average amount of defensive production and a slightly below average amount of offensive production from a team that finished #85 in my ratings last year, and is starting even below that this year. And while the ACC may not be that strong at the top, the league is not exactly crawling with easy wins- I only favor the Seminoles against Louisville and NC State in conference play. Add in non conference games against Boise State and Florida, and I think FSU will be hard pressed to get up to 8 wins this year.
ULM: Over 5 -130 (10 units)
My first over pick is a little bit off the beaten path, but the Warhawks are my pick to win the Sun Belt West and take on Appalachian State for the conference title. ULM went 6-6 last year, but was not invited to a bowl game. The data shows that quarterback and line play are the most important areas to have experience, and ULM has a third year starting QB in Caleb Evans, and every single starter on both the offensive and defensive lines is back. There are four easy wins on the schedule in Grambling, South Alabama, Georgia State and Coastal Carolina, and then three more games I favor them in. I have the Warhawks at #61 in my preseason ratings, 3rd highest in the Sun Belt.
Purdue: Under 7 -145 (8 units)
Purdue got a lot of attention last year for beating Ohio State at home, but the fact is that they were just an average team last year. They lost to Eastern Michigan at home last year, and got run out of the building by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. All of this led to them finishing #61 in my final ratings, around teams like Temple and Arizona. This year, while stud WR Rondale Moore is back, he's one of only 3 returning starters on offense. Purdue takes a major hit in my preseason ratings for inexperienced line play, and others agree as they rank 126/130 on Phil Steele's experience chart. The schedule is no cakewalk either- Illinois is the only free win as all 3 non-conference games are tricky. The Boilermakers could be underdogs in as many as 9 games this year and clock in outside the top 80 of my preseason ratings.
Wake Forest: Over 6 -130 (6 units)
Wake Forest is a team that many wrote off last year, but exploded at the end of the season, winning two of their last 3 regular season games as double digit underdogs to make a bowl. After the bowl win over Memphis, they finished #45 in my final ratings last year. The surge at the end of the season coincided with QB Jamie Newman taking the helm, and he's back along with 3 multi-year O-line starters. I give Wake a 50/50 chance of making it through a soft non-conference schedule 4-0, and I see the Demon Deacons as favorites in 8 games this year (underdogs to BC, VT, Clemson, Syracuse). They'll be competitive in every game but Clemson, and I have them just outside my preseason top 25.
San Jose State: Over 2.5 -180 (6 units)
San Jose State is not going to be a good football team this year, but to win 3 or more games against their schedule, you just simply have to avoid being one of the 5 or so worst teams in the country. I think that the Spartans are better than that- they finished #109/130 in my ratings last year, and return multi-year starting QB Josh Love as well as 4/5 offensive lineman. I have them #112 in my preseason ratings this year. Breaking down the schedule, Northern Colorado was one of the worst FCS teams last year and is an easy win. I have SJSU as favorites against Tulsa and New Mexico, and less than a touchdown underdogs against Arkansas, Nevada and UNLV. This team is more likely to win 4 or 5 games this year than 2 or 3 and is not one of the FBS' worst.
Mississippi: Under 5 -140 (6 units)
Ole Miss started 5-2 last year, and then the wheels fell off as they lost their last 5. They do return 10 starters on defense, but they had arguable the worst defense in the Power Five last year, shown most notably when giving up 41 points to SIU. Most of the games on their schedule are already decided- they're massive favorites against SE Louisiana and New Mexico State, and 20+ point underdogs against Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State. That leaves four games up in the air- @Memphis, Arkansas, Cal, Vanderbilt. I expect them to win 1 or 2 of those games, and it's unlikely they win all 4 to go over 5 wins.
Virginia Tech Under 8 +120 (4 units)
Everyone is scrambling to figure out who is going to win the ACC Coastal, and many people have decided on Virginia Tech. I'm struggling to figure out why, as the Hokies were pretty average last year, finishing outside the top 60 in my final ratings. They'll likely be better than they were last year, as they return 10 starters on defense in Bud Foster's swan song year, but they have a very inexperienced offensive line and question marks at the skill positions. They have 3 easy wins in ODU, Furman and Rhode Island, but people underestimate the strength of the middle of the ACC. I have them favored in only 6 games this year, and they're going to have to win a lot of road games that are tougher than they appear to go over 8 wins.
Other picks I like, but not quite as much as the ones above, include:
Akron Over 3.5 +130 (2 units)
Baylor Under 7.5 +100 (2 units)
Kansas Over 3 +100 (2 units)
Liberty Over 5.5 -140 (2 units)
Michigan Under 9.5 +175 (2 units)
Nebraska Under 8.5 -115 (2 units)
Oklahoma Under 10.5 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky Over 5 -135 (2 units)
Western Michigan Under 7.5 +105 (2 units)
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