Betzig Sports

The biggest news of the night was Vanderbilt's total collapse at Kentucky- they could've put themselves in a very comfortable position with a win but now they're right on the cut line. They'll fall out if Illinois beats Michigan State tomorrow. Aside from the aforementioned Illinois/Michigan State game, tomorrow's big bubble games include a huge opportunity for Wake Forest at home against Louisville, a Michigan/Northwestern matchup where the winner is probably a lock and a Kansas State/TCU game that might be an elimination game. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville 2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky 3: Butler, Duke, Florida, Arizona 4: Florida State, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue 5: Minnesota, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Cincinnati 6: Creighton, SMU , St. Mary's, Wisconsin 7: Iowa State, Maryland, Dayton , Virginia Tech 8: South Carolina, Xavier, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State 9: Arkansas, Michigan State, VCU, Michigan 10: Wichita State , Northwes...

I re-ran my model this afternoon, and it produced some interesting results. First, Gonzaga is now off my 1-line and Louisville is in their place. However, Louisville, Butler and the 4 2-seeds are all incredibly close to each other, and I think that any team on the 1 or 2 lines could end up with a 1 seed. The other notable result was that Rhode Island shot up into my field, as my model is impressed with their RPI (44) and the fact that they have two RPI top 25 wins (Cincinnati and VCU). Tomorrow's bubble action includes must wins for Georgetown (@ Seton Hall) and Indiana (@ Purdue) as both teams search for quality wins to move into the field. Elsewhere, Vanderbilt has a chance for the ultimate SEC marquee win at Rupp Arena and Providence will be attempting to avoid the ultimate Big East bad loss at home against DePaul. 1: Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina, Louisville 2: Baylor, Gonzaga, Oregon, Kentucky 3: Butler, Florida State, Florida, Arizona 4: Duke, UCLA, Virginia, Pur...

Sunday was much quieter than Saturday, with the most notable results being Michigan State's win over Wisconsin that probably guarantees their safety, and Cincinnati's loss to UCF which probably kills their chances of a protected seed. Illinois also got an important win against Nebraska and USC dropped their 4th straight against Arizona State. Monday's action will be entertaining, as Baylor must beat West Virginia to retain any hope of a 1 seed and North Carolina's grip on one will slip if they fall in Charlottesville. However, there's nothing going on on the bubble tomorrow. 1: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Gonzaga 2: Oregon , Baylor, Louisville, Arizona 3: UCLA, Florida State, Butler, Kentucky 4: West Virginia, Florida, Purdue , Notre Dame 5: Minnesota, Duke, SMU , Virginia 6: Oklahoma State, St. Mary's, Cincinnati, Iowa State 7: Creighton, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Dayton 8: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State 9: South Carolina, Ark...

Although I was expecting the biggest result of the day to come in the ACC, Gonzaga's first loss of the season at home to BYU was the big news of Saturday. I have Gonzaga on the 1 line for now but I may change that this week- the Zags have an RPI of 10 and no team with a double digit RPI has gotten a 1 seed since the tournament expanded to 68. A quick roundup of the day's bubble winners: Providence got a big comeback win against Marquette and is in the field if they win their last two regular season games (vs. DePaul and @ St. John's). Miami (FL) is a lock after their win over Duke. Iowa State is a lock after their win over Baylor. Wichita State and Illinois State both cruised. I think it's highly unlikely the Shockers miss the field, and I think the Redbirds are in if they make it to the Arch Madness finals. And the losers: Clemson took another brutal one-possession loss and needs to win their last two regular season games and then make a serious run in t...

The biggest bubble result of the night was Georgia's win in Tuscaloosa, which bumped the Crimson Tide out of at-large consideration and put the Bulldogs within striking distance of the field. If Georgia wins their last 3 regular season games and makes the SEC semis I think they have a good shot at a bid. Ohio State also got a big win against Wisconsin to keep their faint hopes alive Dayton is the only bubble team in action tomorrow night, although the Flyers are going to make the field barring a total collapse. However, a trip to Davidson is the kind of game that's a nightmare for a bubble team, as it's legitimately tough but a win is not going to gain much favor in the eyes of the committee. 1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona , Louisville 3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky 4: Purdue , UCLA, Duke, West Virginia 5: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame, SMU 6: Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Creighton 7: St. Mary's, ...

Last night was a huge one on the bubble- Providence jumps into the bracket for the first time in more than a month with a huge win @Creighton.  Other big bubble winners include Vanderbilt, who despite their hefty loss count is now in the First Four Out, and Syracuse who has climbed out of the first four. California lete a huge chance slip away as they blew a near-20 point lead against Oregon, and Tennessee moves out after a damaging home loss to Vanderbilt. A lighter slate tonight- from a bubble perspective I'll be keeping my eye on Nebraska/Michigan State. 1: Kansas, Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Oregon, Arizona , Louisville 3: Florida State, Florida, Butler, Kentucky 4: Purdue , UCLA, Duke, West Virginia 5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame 6: SMU , Virginia, Maryland, Creighton 7: St. Mary's, Oklahoma State, Dayton , Virginia Tech 8: Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina, Xavier 9: USC, Arkansas, VCU, Michigan 10: Michigan State, Seton...

Clemson is joining Texas Tech in the club of bubble teams that sure look like tournament teams but just can't catch a break. After their loss at Virginia Tech last night, Clemson probably need to go 3-0 down the stretch to have a chance at the tournament. Last night was pretty uneventful for the bubble, but tonight promises to be different as Kansas State, Syracuse, California  and Seton Hall all have huge opportunities at home against teams safely in the field. Vanderbilt/Tennessee and Pittsburgh/Wake Forest have big implications as well. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Florida State, Duke, Florida, Kentucky 4: Purdue , UCLA, Butler, West Virginia 5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame 6: Creighton, SMU , Virginia, St. Mary's 7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton , Xavier 8: Virginia Tech, Iowa State, Miami (FL), South Carolina 9: USC, Michigan State, Arkansas, VCU 10: Michigan, Northwestern, Kansas ...

The biggest result of the night was Virginia dropping their 4th straight game, this time at home to Miami. This moves the Hurricanes up to the 8-line, and they're looking quite solid for a bid now barring a complete collapse down the stretch. And yes, Virginia is in even if they lose every game left on their schedule. Texas Tech's last 4 losses have either come in OT, double OT, or been by a single point in regulation. They'll probably have to beat Kansas in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals to have a chance now. Tuesday night's slate is relatively light, Clemson @ Virginia Tech is the most intriguing bubble game. In the Big Ten, Indiana faces a must-win @ Iowa, and Northwestern has a deceptively tricky game @ Illinois. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida 4: Purdue , UCLA, Butler, West Virginia 5: Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Maryland, Notre Dame 6: Creighton, SMU , Virginia, S...

Georgia Tech got a huge win over Syracuse, and they move up to the First Four Out. However, the biggest surprise of the night was Oregon State getting their first conference win, knocking Utah out of the bubble picture for good. Iowa State @ Texas Tech is the most intriguing game on Monday's slate- Texas Tech is just outside my Next Four Out despite their 5-9 conference record. Virginia will be looking to stop their slide against Miami as well. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida 4: Purdue , UCLA, Butler, West Virginia 5: Cincinnati, Virginia, Wisconsin, Maryland 6: Notre Dame, Creighton, SMU , St. Mary's 7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton , Xavier 8: Virginia Tech, USC, Iowa State, South Carolina 9: Northwestern, Miami (FL), Michigan State, Arkansas 10: VCU, Michigan, Kansas State, Wichita State 11: Seton Hall, California, (Tennessee/Marquette), (Illinois State/Syracuse...

Lots of action happened near the bubble on Saturday, although there weren't any terribly surprising results. Miami's win over Clemson moved the Hurricanes up towards relative safety and Clemson falling further form the field. Wake Forest came close to getting a resume-defining win @Duke, Vanderbilt may have gotten one themselves against South Carolina. Despite their 13 losses, Vanderbilt has a feasible path to the tournament if they can finish the regular season 3-1. It seems like there's a big bubble matchup every night in the ACC, and Sunday will be no different as Syracuse takes on Georgia Tech. Georgetown also has a chance to climb into the bracket against Creighton. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina 2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Florida State, Duke, Kentucky, Florida 4: Purdue , UCLA, Butler, Maryland 5: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Virginia, Notre Dame 6: SMU , Creighton, St. Mary's, Wisconsin 7: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Dayton ...

The main result in Thursday's action was Michigan's win over Wisconsin- the Wolverines have improved their stock significantly since their home loss to Ohio State and are now away from the main bubble circus. Wisconsin has tumbled from the AP top 10 to a 7 seed, and has surrendered sole possession of first place in the Big Ten for the first time in weeks. VCU and California are the only teams of note playing tonight, although both have the high-risk low-reward situation of playing competent teams (Richmond and Stanford, respectively) on the road. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor 2: North Carolina , Florida State, Louisville, Oregon 3: Arizona , Duke, Kentucky, Florida 4: Butler, Purdue , UCLA, Virginia 5: Maryland, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Creighton 6: Notre Dame, SMU , Minnesota, St. Mary's 7: Xavier, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech 8: South Carolina, USC, Dayton , Northwestern 9: Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa State, VCU 10: Arkansas, Miami (...

A busy day on the bubble, with lots of movement in both directions. Arkansas got a huge win at South Carolina, which more or less cancels out their loss against Missouri a few days ago. It was a good day for Big East bubble teams, as both Seton Hall and Providence capitalized on the winnable opportunities I mentioned yesterday. Seton Hall catapulted into the field as a result, and Providence moved up to the First Four Out. By far the biggest loser of the night was Rhode Island, whose chances for an at-large probably depend on making the A-10 title game after a horrible home loss to RPI 190 Fordham. Putting up only 43 points at home to a team in the bottom half of D1 is not how you play your way into the field. Wisconsin @ Michigan is the main attraction of Thursday's slate- the Wolverines could give themselves a huge bump with a win. A loss for the Badgers would cause them to lose sole possession of first place in the Big Ten, and send them tumbling towards an 8/9 game. The other b...

The most important game of the night was in the ACC, where Clemson picked up their 4th ACC win over Wake Forest. Clemson will be an interesting team down the stretch- I think there's a legitimate chance they'll be the first team with a 7-11 conference record to make the tourney (since the field expanded to 68, which is as far back as my data goes), should they go 3-2 to close out ACC play. No team with a 7-11 conference record has even been in serious at-large consideration. For reference, here's the teams that made the field with a losing conference record: 2015 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 rated conference in Kenpom) 2015 Texas (11 seed, #1 conference) 2014 Oklahoma State (9 seed, #1 conference) 2013 Illinois (7 seed, #1 conference) 2013 Minnesota (11 seed, #1 conference) 2012 Connecticut (9 seed, #3 conference) There's enough precedent of 8-10 teams who were reasonably safe (teams that end up with 9 seeds or better are generally not in any real danger of missi...

I did my resume re-evaluation that I do every two weeks this afternoon, so there's a lot of movement throughout the bracket. This shuffling moved Illinois State into the bracket, which gives the Missouri Valley 2 bids for the first time all year in my bracket. My hunch is that if both Illinois State and Wichita State win out until the final of Arch Madness, both will make the field regardless of the result of that game. The eye test certainly leads me to think both of them belong in the field, especially considering Wichita State's top-20 Kenpom mark. Elsewhere in the action of the night, we got to witness 2 overtime thrillers as neither Syracuse nor West Virginia were able to pull off an upset. Kansas was as impressive as any team I've seen this year in their comeback against the Mountaineers. West Virginia, despite the love advanced metrics have for them, fall out of the protected seeds- the worst RPI to get a protected seed since the tournament expanded to 68 was 2015 G...

The two teams the committee were getting the most heat for leaving out of their top 16, Cincinnati and Wisconsin, both lost today. Wisconsin's loss to Northwestern in Madison was huge for the Wildcats, as their bid was looking a bit in jeopardy after the loss to Illinois earlier in the week. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Michigan is in my field for the first time in a few weeks as they knocked off Indiana at Assembly Hall. I've got an interesting quirk in my bracket today- my first four teams out are all from the Big East! 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga , Baylor 2: North Carolina , Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Florida , Florida State, Kentucky, West Virginia 4: Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Purdue 5: SMU , Notre Dame, Butler, Cincinnati 6: Creighton, Xavier, Wisconsin , Maryland 7: St. Mary's, Minnesota, Northwestern, South Carolina 8: VCU, USC, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State 9: Dayton , Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU 10: Michigan State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Wichita State ...

Nothing about the committee's top 4 seed lines was a total shock, I incorrectly had Cincinnati and Purdue in my top 4 seeds while they had Duke and West Virginia. Already, there's been some movement up there as Florida State and Butler both lost. On the bubble, Marquette and Seton Hall took losses, and every team in the Big East besides DePaul and St. John's is in my field or is one of my first 3 teams out. Needless to say, the Big East tournament will be interesting. Today features the game of the year in the American, as Cincinnati takes on SMU in Dallas. Michigan can climb into the field with a win at Indiana today, a loss for the Hoosiers would put them at 5-8 in the Big Ten and potentially in a position where they'd need to sweep the rest of their regular season schedule. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga , Baylor 2: North Carolina , Louisville, Oregon, Arizona 3: Virginia, Florida , Florida State, Kentucky 4: West Virginia, UCLA, Duke, Cincinnati 5: Purdue,...

Most of the day's action occurred near the 4/5 lines, as UCLA beat Oregon to move into a protected seed and Duke almost moved up to the 4-line themselves with their win over North Carolina. Indiana fell further from the field, and probably needs to go 4-2 in their last 6 to have a chance. Dayton @ Rhode Island is the main attraction tonight- I'll move the Rams into the field if they win. 1: Villanova, Gonzaga , Kansas, Baylor 2: Louisville, Virginia , Arizona, Florida State 3: North Carolina, Butler, Kentucky, Cincinnati 4: Oregon , Purdue, UCLA, Florida 5: Wisconsin, Duke, Creighton, West Virginia 6: Xavier, St. Mary's, SMU, Notre Dame 7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland 8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State 9: TCU, Dayton , Northwestern, Virginia Tech 10: Clemson, California, Michigan State, Miami (FL) 11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State , (Marquette/Wake Forest) 12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont ...

Few changes in today's bracket, Miami's win over Virginia Tech is the only result that jumped off the page to me, and that just brings those two teams slightly closer together. 1: Villanova, Gonzaga , Kansas, Baylor 2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, North Carolina 3: Florida State , Oregon , Butler, Kentucky 4: Cincinnati , Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin 5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA 6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU 7: Minnesota, USC, South Carolina, Maryland 8: VCU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State 9: TCU, Dayton , Virginia Tech, Clemson 10: California, Northwestern, Michigan State, Miami (FL) 11: Syracuse, (Seton Hall/Georgia Tech), Wichita State , (Marquette/Wake Forest) 12: Middle Tennessee, UNC Wilmington, Vermont, Belmont 13: Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State, Bucknell 14: Valparaiso, Monmouth, Arkansas State, Furman 15: UNC Asheville, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina Central 16: Weber State, North Dakota State, (UC...

Syracuse is in my bracket for the first time all year, thanks to their 5th win in a row. They move in at the expense of Arkansas, who is out for the first time all year due to their 3rd loss in 4 games. The SEC is a 3-bid league for now, but half of the first 8 out are from the SEC. Maryland, South Carolina and Northwestern all tumble with bad losses. Baylor/Oklahoma State highlights tomorrow's slate, although Virginia Tech/Miami, Providence/Seton Hall and Mississippi/Tennessee might be more important for the bubble picture. 1: Villanova, Gonzaga , Kansas, Baylor 2: Louisville, Virginia, Arizona, Florida State 3: North Carolina, Oregon , Butler, Kentucky 4: Cincinnati , Florida, Purdue, Wisconsin 5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA 6: St. Mary's, West Virginia, Notre Dame, SMU 7: USC, Minnesota, South Carolina, Maryland 8: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, VCU, Virginia Tech 9: Iowa State, TCU, Dayton , Clemson 10: Northwestern, California, Michigan State, Syracuse 11: ...

Few games of note last night, the only two Power 6 matchups were Kansas/Kansas State and Louisville/Virginia. Louisville's stay on the 1-line lasted 2 full days, Baylor has reclaimed the 1 seed in the South region. Lots of intriguing bubble matchups on Tuesday- Wake Forest, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgia could all get huge wins, among others. Today, I'm releasing a bracket (hopefully you can read my handwriting!), not a seed list. Enjoy! First Four Out: Syracuse, Indiana, Rhode Island, Mississippi Next Four Out: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois State, Georgia Bids by Conference: ACC: 11 Big 12: 7 Big Ten: 6 Big East: 6 Pac-12: 5 SEC: 4 Atlantic 10: 2 American: 2 West Coast: 2

Indiana lost at Wisconsin yesterday, and while it's certainly an excusable loss, Indiana was close  enough to the cut line that they drop out in favor of Miami. Louisville/Virginia will be huge tonight- Baylor will be back on the 1-line if Virginia wins, and Louisville will strengthen their grip on the 1-line if they win. Kansas also faces a tough test at Kansas State, the Wildcats will probably be off the bubble for good if they win. 1: Villanova, Gonzaga , Kansas, Louisville 2: Baylor, Arizona, Florida State, North Carolina 3: Oregon , Virginia, Butler, Kentucky 4: Cincinnati , Purdue, Florida, Wisconsin 5: Creighton, Xavier, Duke, UCLA 6: South Carolina , St. Mary's, West Virginia, Maryland 7: SMU, USC, Notre Dame, Minnesota 8: Iowa State, Kansas State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State 9: Clemson, VCU, Virginia Tech, Michigan State 10: Dayton , TCU, California, Marquette 11: Arkansas, (Wake Forest/Seton Hall), Wichita State , (Georgia Tech/Miami (FL)) 12: Middle...

There's a ton of chaos at the top of the bracket as 6 of the 1, 2 and 3 seeds I had in my last update lost on Saturday. The biggest winner of the mayhem at the top is Louisville, as they make their first appearance of the year on the 1-line thanks to Baylor's loss to Kansas State. The 4th spot on the 1-line was Arizona's for the taking before they got destroyed in Eugene. Oregon is not too far away from the 1-line themselves now. Elsewhere near the top of the bracket, Kentucky and Creighton's holds on a protected seed slipped thanks to losses to Florida and Xavier, who are climbing into the protected seed area themselves. On the bubble, a few teams (Arkansas, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee) took bad losses while others (Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Syracuse) got marquee wins. Wichita State is now in the driver's seat in the MVC after a win over Illinois State and could probably reach an 8/9 game if they win out. Illinois State has at-large hopes as well, b...

Very little movement last night, although Arizona State almost got a huge upset win against Oregon. The main attraction last night was also in the Pac-12 with  Utah @ Cal, and it didn't disappoint as Cal won in double OT. Utah is now 10 teams outside of my field, and probably needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way to make the tournament. That would put them in an interesting spot- aside from a loss against a pretty decent San Francisco team and last night's loss to Cal, the rest of their losses would be against teams I currently have as an 8 seed or higher. However, their best win would be home against USC or home against Cal. The lack of good wins or bad losses would be an interesting litmus test for the committee. Due to the light schedule tonight, (the only game of note is Rhode Island @ Davidson) my next update will be Sunday morning. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga , Baylor 2: Arizona , Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky 3: Creighton, North Carolina , Virginia, Oregon ...

Kansas got a big win over Baylor and has solidified their hold on a 1 seed. I considered putting Arizona on the 1 line instead of Baylor, but am holding off for now. Seeing Arizona and Gonzaga both on the 1 line would be interesting- normally 1 seeds want to avoid the West region, not seek it out. On the bubble, Miami missed out on a golden opportunity at a quality win- a game at home against a Florida State team that advanced metrics think is nowhere near the 2 seed they currently hold. Seton Hall also falls out due to their loss to Xavier, and TCU got a huge overtime road win @ Kansas State to climb out of the First Four. 1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga , Baylor 2: Arizona , Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky 3: Creighton, North Carolina , Virginia, Oregon 4: Butler, Cincinnati , Wisconsin, UCLA 5: Duke, Maryland , West Virginia, Purdue 6: Florida, Xavier, South Carolina, St. Mary's 7: Notre Dame, SMU, USC, Minnesota 8: Clemson, Northwestern, Arkansas, Virginia Tech 9...

Georgia almost pulled off the hardest feat in the SEC, winning at Rupp Arena, last night. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they fell in overtime and remain a ways out of the bracket. Also in the SEC, Tennessee won their 4th straight @ Auburn. They'll be favorites in every remaining game except their trips to Lexington and Columbia, and I think they can lose both of those and still make it in if they win the other 7. Baylor @ Kansas is the main attraction tonight, although I'm undecided if I'll take the loser off the 1-line. A win for Baylor will go a long way towards snapping Kansas' streak of Big 12 regular season titles. 1: Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga 2: Arizona , Louisville, Florida State, Kentucky 3: Creighton, North Carolina , Virginia, Oregon 4: Butler, Cincinnati , Wisconsin, UCLA 5: Duke, Maryland , West Virginia, Florida 6: South Carolina, St. Mary's, Purdue, Notre Dame 7: Xavier, Northwestern, SMU, USC 8: Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Dayton ,...