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I always like to give a special focus to mid-major teams in my bracketology, and mid-major hoops is a big part of what makes college basketball so special. So I figured it would be a good exercise to rank the top mid-major teams of the decade. An exercise like this has to always grapple with the tough question of defining a mid-major. To avoid this list being entirely Gonzaga and Wichita State teams, I've decided to omit Gonzaga entirely and omit Wichita State teams after their undefeated regular season in 2014. 10.  2019 Buffalo Bulls Buffalo came into the 2019 season with some hype after their upset over Arizona in the 2018 tournament. The Bulls, led by senior guard CJ Massinburg, roared to a 31-3 regular season which included a big rivalry win at Syracuse. They easily could've gotten an at-large if they needed it, but they won the MAC tournament and got a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. After a win over Arizona State in the first round, they fell victim to Texas Tech's...

This was one of the quieter weeks of the college hoops season, and my 1 seeds remain unchanged from last update, although the order has shifted slightly. There's two changes among the protected seeds, as Michigan and Arizona join the group at the expense of Virginia and Kentucky. Both the Cavaliers and the Wildcats have very tough resumes to evaluate at this point- Virginia is going to be able to suffocate many teams this year, but they're suspect to performances like the one against South Carolina a few nights ago. And Kentucky has a win over Michigan State and nothing else of note on their resume. The lack of solid teams this year has led to some interesting teams climbing up the seed list. One of them is BYU, who has very good adjusted efficiency numbers but 4 early non-conference losses. However, the Cougars played a very strong non-conference schedule and have 3 solid wins against Houston, Virginia Tech and Utah State as well. Another is Stanford- their efficiency number...

Preseason Win Totals: 9-4-3 +31.10 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Week 13: 2-2 -1.05 units Week 14: 0-3 -5.00 units Week 15: 1-0 +1.85 units Season Total: 47-44-5 +33.74 units Now that the regular season is over, I've decided to briefly look back on my preseason win totals picks. They overall went quite well: of my 16 picks, I won 9, pushed 3 and lost 4. A few picks came down to the last week- most notably ULM and Ole Miss. ULM missed a 33 yard field goal as time expired that would've hit the over, and Ole Miss' collapse against Mississippi State allowed me to win instead of push. Here's the full summary: Win: Florida State, Purdue, Wake Forest, San Jose State, Lib...

The most chaotic season of college hoops that I can remember continues on, with only four undefeated teams remaining. The chaos is most evident in the Big Ten, where 12 of the 14 teams are 1-1 in league play. No team has distinguished themselves from the pack- current Kenpom #1 Ohio State would've ranked #8 at the end of last season, and current T-Rank #1 Kansas would've ranked #5 at the end of last season. One story I'm going to be monitoring all season is the decline of the ACC. Last year, the league had 3 #1 seeds and 5 protected seeds. This year, I have 5 ACC teams total in the field. North Carolina in particular is a huge question mark after their loss at home to Wofford yesterday. The SEC also looks likely to produce fewer tournament teams than last year, to the benefit of the Pac-12, Big Ten and Big East. It's finals week on most campuses, so the period between now and Christmas is the slowest time of the college basketball year. My next update will come arou...

These are my final bowl projections of the season. The playoff and New Year's Six picture has largely been decided, but many conferences still have plenty of uncertainty about their bowl picture. Only one bowl eligible team will be left home, and I project it to be Toledo. Peach: LSU vs. Oklahoma Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Clemson There's no doubt about the identity of the four playoff teams, the only question now is seeding. I feel pretty good that LSU is going to get the #1 seed after their demolition of Georgia, which would send them to the Peach Bowl. Rose: Wisconsin vs. Oregon Sugar: Georgia vs. Baylor Orange: Florida vs. Virginia Cotton: Penn State vs. Memphis The first question in the New Year's Six is who goes to the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin put up a good enough showing against Ohio State that I think they beat out Penn State for the Rose. The second is who goes to the Cotton Bowl. It'll come down to Penn State, Utah and Auburn. My guess is that Utah falls f...

Preseason Win Totals: 9-2 +28.93 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Week 13: 2-2 -1.05 units Week 14: 0-3 -5.00 units Season Total: 46-42-2 +29.72 units Baylor vs. Oklahoma I've picked against Oklahoma pretty consistently this year and I'm doing so again here. The Sooners are down to 9th in my ratings and have won lots of games in unsustainable ways recently- against Iowa State, TCU and Baylor, among others. Baylor's offense is looking better in the last few weeks and I like the Bears here. Baylor +9 -108 (2 units)

An extremely busy Feast Week leads to changes up and down the bracket. The biggest winner was undoubtedly Michigan, who won massive games against Iowa State, North Carolina and Gonzaga to vault up to a 2 seed. Other teams that rose due to winning their tournaments include Oklahoma State, San Diego State and West Virginia. On the losing end, Providence had a disastrous time at the Wooden Legacy and has fallen from a preseason 5 seed to out of the picture. There's other teams, like Texas Tech, VCU and Purdue, who I expect to bounce back from rough starts but just don't have much of a resume and have fallen in this projection. We're entering the slowest part of the college basketball calendar. The ACC/Big Ten challenge this week will give some big games, but the rest of December is quite slow. We'll get a few conference games from the leagues with 20 game schedules, but other than that there's a lot of buy games between now and the New Year. 1: Louisville , Virginia...

Last week, it looked like we might not have enough bowl eligible teams, but some underdogs like Boston College and Kent State pulled through to get to 6 wins. There are 79 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. I'm projecting that Liberty gets left home, as an independent with no set tie-ins. Peach: Ohio State vs. Utah Fiesta: LSU vs. Clemson My playoff projection remains the same. Ohio State and LSU should be in no matter what, and I lean towards Utah getting the last spot over Oklahoma if they both win this weekend. Rose: Wisconsin vs. Oregon I have no clue whether Penn State or Wisconsin will get the Big Ten's Rose Bowl bid- it likely depends on the margin of the Big Ten title game. I would lean towards the Badgers, especially after Penn State's lackluster performance against Rutgers. Sugar: Georgia vs. Oklahoma Orange: Alabama vs. Virginia There's a chance that Alabama falls far enough for either Florida or a Big Ten team (say, Penn State) to get this bid, ...

Preseason Win Totals: 9-2 +28.93 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Week 13: 2-2 -1.05 units Season Total: 46-39-2 +34.72 units Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State I've picked against Oklahoma pretty consistently this year, and I'm doing so once again here. Oklahoma State's starting QB, Spencer Sanders, is out, but even without him the Cowboys have a fantastic offense. I'd make this line Oklahoma -2.5 with Sanders, and he's definitely not worth 10 points. Oklahoma State +12 +102 (2 units) Iowa @ Nebraska Nebraska demolished Maryland last week to get to 5-6 and needs to win this game to make it to a bowl. Iowa's season has slowed a bit in recent weeks, but they're still a solid top ...

It was another bad week for teams on the cusp of bowl eligibility. 72 teams are now bowl eligible, with 78 spots available. There are 14 teams that need just one more win to make a bowl, and 7 of them are favored. However, one of them is Missouri, who is in the middle of appealing a bowl ban. I've projected that the 6 remaining favorites win their games and make a bowl, but there's a good chance we could see 5-7 teams in bowl games. Peach: Ohio State vs. Utah Fiesta: LSU vs. Clemson It's hard to say what will happen for the final playoff spot if Utah, Alabama and Oklahoma all win out. I'm still guessing it would go to the Utes given Oklahoma's recent struggles, but if Alabama demolishes Auburn or Oklahoma demolishes Baylor, it could be a different story. Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma Orange: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech Cotton: Florida vs. Memphis The biggest question for me in the rest of the New Year's Six is which Big Ten te...

Another relatively quiet week at the top, with Oklahoma/Baylor being the headliner of last week. My perception of the relative strength of the playoff contenders has been pretty constant over the last few weeks. And for the third week in a row, the same set of 25 teams occupies my top 25. The number in parenthesis next to each team represents their ranking last week. 1. Clemson (1) 2. Ohio State (2) 3. Alabama (3) 4. LSU (4) 5. Georgia (5) For the third week in a row, the top 5 remains in the same order. Georgia will be a field goal underdog, or less, against LSU in the SEC title game, probably to the public's surprise. My ratings don't account for injuries, but Alabama probably deserves to be 5th or 6th without Tua. 6. Utah (9) 7. Michigan (11) 8. Oregon (6) 9. Florida (10) 10. Oklahoma (12) Michigan is moving up significantly after their big win over Michigan State and is now at their highest ranking of the year. The Wolverines are playing just well enough to ha...

Preseason Win Totals: 6-2 +25.84 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Season Total: 41-37-2 +33.68 units 2 of my 3 picks last week came down to the wire. I waited too long to get Wyoming, and so I had them +4.5 instead of +5.5 and they lost by 5. North Texas @ Rice After a handful of close calls, Rice finally got their first win of the year last week against Middle Tennessee. The Owls have been better than their record all year, but they have a decent defense. I've been fading North Texas throughout the year and they've been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. Rice +6.5 +102 (2 units) Syracuse @ Louisville I'm back to betting on the ACC Atlantic, and I'm picki...

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it's time to fire up the simulator again and evaluate each team's chance of making the playoff. By my count, there's 11 teams that could reasonably make the playoff. One by one, we'll go through each of them to discuss the scenarios in which they make the field. Clemson: 96.8% chance to make playoff Clemson is on bye this week, then plays at South Carolina on November 30th before the ACC title game the following week. South Carolina has stumbled in recent weeks, and I have Clemson as 29 point favorites against the Gamecocks. They're likely to play Virginia Tech or Virginia in the ACC title game, where they'd be around a four touchdown favorite as well. The Tigers are overwhelmingly likely to win both games, but if they drop 1 they have around a 20% chance to still sneak into the field. LSU: 92.0% chance to make playoff LSU plays Arkansas this week, where they're a 40+ point favorite. They then host Texa...

The first two weeks of college basketball season is in the books, so it's time to update my bracketology. On the top line, I have Michigan State and Louisville remaining from my  preseason bracket  while Duke and Virginia have moved up to the top. Ohio State rockets up to a 2 seed after big wins over Cincinnati and Villanova and has a massive road trip to North Carolina coming up in a few weeks. A lot of the middle tier conferences have had disappointing starts to the year, namely the American and the Atlantic 10. Memphis was supposed to be the top team in the American, but is a question mark with James Wiseman out. Cincinnati and Houston have disappointed as well. In the A-10, Davidson has had a rough start to the year, and VCU looks like the only surefire tournament team. 1: Duke , Louisville,  Michigan State , Virginia 2: Gonzaga , Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas 3: Arizona, Kentucky , Maryland, Oregon 4: Texas Tech, Xavier , VCU , Auburn 5: Tennessee, Villa...