11/19 College Football Playoff Projections

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it's time to fire up the simulator again and evaluate each team's chance of making the playoff. By my count, there's 11 teams that could reasonably make the playoff. One by one, we'll go through each of them to discuss the scenarios in which they make the field.

Clemson: 96.8% chance to make playoff

Clemson is on bye this week, then plays at South Carolina on November 30th before the ACC title game the following week. South Carolina has stumbled in recent weeks, and I have Clemson as 29 point favorites against the Gamecocks. They're likely to play Virginia Tech or Virginia in the ACC title game, where they'd be around a four touchdown favorite as well. The Tigers are overwhelmingly likely to win both games, but if they drop 1 they have around a 20% chance to still sneak into the field.

LSU: 92.0% chance to make playoff

LSU plays Arkansas this week, where they're a 40+ point favorite. They then host Texas A&M, where I only favor them by 12.5. They will almost surely close the season against Georgia in the SEC title game, where I would make them a 3 point favorite. LSU could definitely survive a loss to Texas A&M, and almost surely survive a loss to Georgia. However, if they lose both games, they'd be 11-2 without an SEC championship and on the outside looking in.

Ohio State: 87.7% chance to make playoff

Ohio State hosts Penn State this week, where I have them as a 15 point favorite. They then travel to Ann Arbor to play Michigan, where I favor them by 9, and then they have the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin or Minnesota. They'd be around a 15-20 point favorite against either the Gophers or the Badgers. The Buckeyes can survive a loss to Michigan and still make the playoff, but the tough scenario is where they beat Penn State and Michigan but lose the Big Ten title game. They'd likely need some help to get into the field as a 12-1 team without a conference championship.

Georgia: 32.5% chance to make playoff

Georgia hosts Texas A&M this week, where I have them favored by 10. They travel to Georgia Tech, where they'll be around 30 point favorites, and then play the SEC title game against LSU where they'll be around a 3 point underdog. It's pretty simple for the Dawgs- if they win out, they'd be a 12-1 SEC champion with wins over LSU, Florida, Notre Dame and Auburn. If they lose even once more, they'd need a ton of help elsewhere to have a shot at 11-2.

Oklahoma: 27.7% chance to make playoff

Oklahoma hosts TCU this week, where I have them favored by 12. They travel to Oklahoma State for Bedlam, where I have them favored by 3.5. They then likely have a Big 12 title game rematch against Baylor, where I'd favor them by 7.5. They're the first team on this list that doesn't control their own destiny- if Georgia beats LSU and Ohio State and Clemson win out, the Sooners have no shot. However, that's pretty unlikely- if Oklahoma wins out they have around a 75% chance of making the field.

Utah: 25.4% chance to make playoff

Utah travels to Arizona this week, where I have them favored by 24. They then host Colorado, where I have them favored by 27. If they win both, they're headed to the Pac-12 title game against Oregon where I have them favored by 2. Utah is almost exactly 50/50 to finish as a 12-1 Pac-12 champion. They'd be toast if Georgia beats LSU and chalk holds in the Big Ten and ACC, but the interesting question to me is whether the committee would take them over a 12-1 Oklahoma. I think the answer is no, but it would be a close call.

Oregon: 19.7% chance to make playoff

Oregon travels to Arizona State on Saturday, where I favor them by 14.5. I then have them as a 21 point favorite in the Civil War against Oregon State. They then have the Pac-12 title game, almost surely against Utah, where they'd be a slight underdog. I give the Ducks around a 40% chance of winning their last 3 games, and they'd be in the same situation as a 12-1 Utah. A lot of my simulations came down to a 12-1 Big 12 champion Oklahoma or 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon, and it's hard to know who the committee would prefer.

Penn State: 8.5% chance to make playoff

Penn State plays at Ohio State this week, where I have them as a 15 point underdog. They then host Rutgers, where they're a massive favorite. If they win both games, they'd play in the Big 10 championship game, where they'd be around a 5 point favorite against Minnesota or Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are the last team on this list that controls their own destiny. If they win out, they'd have wins over Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa and either Minnesota or Wisconsin, which combined with a conference title would be an overwhelming resume. However, it's tough to make a case for 2 loss Penn State.

Alabama: 4.2% chance to make playoff

Alabama hosts Western Carolina this week, where they're a massive favorite. They then travel to Auburn for the Iron Bowl, where I have them as a very slight favorite without Tua. The Crimson Tide are a tough team to forecast- they were already on the outside of the playoff picture with a healthy quarterback, and now the situation is even murkier. I think an 11-1 Alabama would have the edge over any 2 loss conference champions, but it's tough to see them getting in over say, a 12-1 Penn State, 12-1 Oklahoma or 12-1 Oregon.

Minnesota: 4.0% chance to make playoff

Minnesota travels to Northwestern this Saturday, where I have them as a 19 point favorite. They then host Wisconsin in a de-facto Big Ten West title game, where I have them as a 2 point favorite. If they win that, they'll play in the Big Ten title game, likely against Ohio State, where I think they'd be around a 17 point underdog. If Minnesota wins out, I think they'd likely make the playoff as they'd have wins over Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin and a very excusable loss at Iowa. However, it's not out of the question a 12-1 Oklahoma or 12-1 Oregon/Utah could get the nod over them. Regardless, the Gophers have a long uphill climb to the playoff.

Baylor: 1.5% chance to make playoff

Baylor hosts Texas this week, where I have them as a 2 point favorite. They then travel to Kansas, where I have them as a 11.5 point favorite. They're very likely to make the Big 12 title game and have a rematch with Oklahoma, where I'd have them as a 7.5 point underdog. Even if the Bears win all three of those games, they have quite an uphill climb to the playoff, as they're likely at the back of the pack of 12-1 conference champions. If it comes down to say, 12-1 Baylor or 11-2 LSU for the last spot, they could have an argument, but it's hard to see them getting in over another 12-1 team.