11/8 Conference Championship Odds

There's now only four weeks left in the season, and the conference title races are coming into clearer focus. Some divisions are essentially decided already, while others hinge on one big game. For each team below, the first number represents their probability to make the conference championship game and the second is their probability to win it.

SEC

Alabama 70%, 55%

LSU 30%, 15%

Georgia 85%, 25%

Florida 15%, 5%

The winner of this week's Alabama/LSU game is going to be the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC West and go on to Atlanta. Georgia is not a sure thing to win the East though- if Florida wins out in conference play and Georgia loses twice, the Gators will win the division. I have Georgia as a 1 point underdog at Auburn and both the Texas A&M and Missouri games are loseable.

Big Ten

Ohio State 85%, 70%

Penn State 15%, 7%

Minnesota 50%, 12%

Wisconsin 30%, 6%

Iowa 25%, 5%

The Big Ten East is going to come down to the monster Ohio State/Penn State game in Columbus on November 23rd. I have the Buckeyes as 12 point favorites there, which is in the vicinity of most lookahead lines. If Minnesota loses to Penn State this week, the winner of this week's Wisconsin/Iowa game controls their own destiny in the west while the loser is likely out of contention.

Big 12

Oklahoma 75%, 55%

Baylor 75%, 25%

Kansas State 20%, 7%

Texas: 15%, 6%

Iowa State: 10%, 4%

Oklahoma State: 4%, 2%

TCU: 1%, 1%

We're about 50/50 to see an Oklahoma/Baylor conference title game- although the Sooners would be heavy favorites over the Bears if they both get there. Baylor has four games left and I have them as underdogs in 2 of them. However, they already have key wins over Iowa State and Kansas State so there's a good chance they make the Big 12 title game even with two losses.

ACC

Clemson 99%, 97%

Wake Forest 1%, <1%

Virginia 70%, 2%

Pittsburgh 15%, 1%

Virginia Tech 10%, <1%

North Carolina 3%, <1%

Duke 1%, <1%

Clemson remains the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, although Wake Forest still controls their own destiny in the Atlantic. The interesting race is in the Coastal, where Virginia took control of the division by beating North Carolina last week. Pitt and Virginia Tech are still even in the loss column though, and the Hokies control their own destiny.

Pac-12

Oregon >99%, 60%

Utah 90%, 38%

USC 5%, 1%

UCLA 5%, 1%

In the North, Oregon State is technically alive but Oregon has the division all but sewn up. Utah is the overwhelming favorite in the South as they're at least two touchdown favorites in every remaining game. However, USC retains a slim chance and UCLA still somehow controls their own destiny.

American

Cincinnati 90%, 45%

UCF 10%, 7%

Navy 40%, 12%

Memphis 35%, 23%

SMU 25%, 12%

While I think UCF is the best team in the conference by some distance, Cincinnati is a game ahead of them and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. The AAC West has been the most interesting division in football this year- Navy, Memphis and SMU all have a good chance at winning the division still, although only Memphis controls their own destiny.

Mountain West

Boise State 85%, 60%

Air Force 10%, 7%

Wyoming 5%, 2%

Utah State 1%, <1%

San Diego State 80%, 25%

Fresno State 15%, 5%

Hawaii 5%, 1%

The Mountain West is likely going to come down to a Boise State/San Diego State championship game. Air Force is about as good as the Broncos, but lost to them earlier in the year. In the West, San Diego State is a game ahead of Fresno State but Hawaii is lurking as well.