Bowl Projections 11/10/19

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Only three weeks remain in the regular season, and bowl bids are getting a bit more clear. Some changes at the top this week, as I move LSU into the playoff in place of Alabama. Overall, I still project 80 eligible teams for 78 slots.

Peach: LSU vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Clemson

I'm keeping Oregon in the playoff- right now the decision for the last spot comes down to the Pac-12 champion, the Big 12 champion and Alabama. I'll assume here that Oregon wins out and their conference champion elevates them over a 12-1 Oklahoma and a 11-1 Alabama.

Rose: Penn State vs. Utah
Sugar: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Orange: Virginia vs. Georgia
Cotton: Baylor vs. Cincinnati

I considered slotting Minnesota into the New Year's Six, but if it comes down to 11-2 Minnesota and 10-2 Penn State my guess is that the Nittany Lions would get the nod for the Rose Bowl. I've given Baylor the last at-large spot to the New Year's Six, although don't be surprised if Florida wins out and creeps high enough in the rankings to take it.

Citrus: Minnesota vs. Florida
Outback: Michigan vs. Auburn
Gator: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M
Holiday: Iowa vs. USC
Liberty: Iowa State vs. Tennessee
Redbox: Indiana vs. Arizona State

I struggled a bit with slotting the bottom few Big Ten teams- I wanted to give Indiana a better slot than this, but if they go 8-4 it's hard to see them jumping any of the teams above them.

Sun: Florida State vs. California
Military: Virginia Tech vs. Navy
Arizona: Utah State vs. Arkansas State
Belk: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Alamo: Texas vs. Washington

The Pac-12 is a total mess after Oregon and Utah. Every other team in the conference still has a chance at a bowl and all have at least four losses. I've given Washington and USC the top bids based mainly off brand size.

Camping World: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
Music City: Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State
Texas: Oklahoma State vs. SMU*
Pinstripe: Miami (FL) vs. Illinois

Illinois has rattled off 4 wins in a row and is now bowl eligible- this would be an interesting matchup between two teams headed in very different directions.

Independence: Louisville vs. Memphis*
Cheez-It: TCU vs. San Diego State*

I tried to avoid sending TCU back to the Cheez-It Bowl but this was the only logical spot for them.

Quick Lane: Boston College vs. Michigan State
First Responder: Fresno State* vs. Marshall
Hawaii: BYU vs. Hawaii
Dollar General: Central Michigan vs. Louisiana
Armed Forces: Ball State* vs. Air Force
Birmingham: North Carolina vs. UCF*

There's a handful of open SEC spots, and I've tried giving them to Group of Five teams who would ordinarily have a much worse bid, like UCF here and SMU in the Texas Bowl.

Potato: Wyoming vs. Toledo
Bahamas: Ohio vs. Florida Atlantic
Gasparilla: Tulane vs. Louisiana Tech
Frisco: Western Kentucky* vs. Buffalo
Boca Raton: Temple vs. Western Michigan
New Orleans: UAB vs. Appalachian State
Camellia: Miami (OH) vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas: Washington State vs. Boise State
New Mexico: Nevada vs. Southern Miss
Cure: Charlotte* vs. Georgia State

Eligible but not selected: Eastern Michigan, Liberty

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