11/15 Conference Championship Odds

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season, and most division races have been wrapped up already. For each team, the first number indicates their probability of reaching the conference championship game and the second is their probability of winning it.

SEC

LSU >99%, 60%

Georgia 95%, 40%

Florida 5%, 1%

Florida has to win out  in conference and needs Georgia to lose to both Auburn and Texas A&M to win the East. Alabama remains technically alive in the West.

Big Ten

Ohio State 90%, 75%

Penn State 10%, 5%

Minnesota 80%, 15%

Wisconsin 20%, 5%

Penn State still controls their own destiny in the East, but won't if they lose to Indiana. Minnesota just needs to win two of their last three, or just beat Wisconsin, to win the West.

Big 12

Baylor 95%, 25%

Oklahoma 85%, 65%

Texas 15%, 7%
Kansas State 2%, 1%

Iowa State 2%, 1%

Oklahoma State 2%, 1%

Baylor is far ahead of the pack now, and Oklahoma can all but wrap up a rematch with the Bears in the Big 12 title game if they beat them tomorrow. 

ACC

Clemson 100%, 95%

Virginia 70%, 5%

Virginia Tech 15%, 1%

Pittsburgh 12%, 1%

Miami 1%, <1%

North Carolina 1%, <1%

Virginia wins the Coastal if they beat Virginia Tech, otherwise it's likely going to be Virginia Tech or Pitt winning the division. Clemson has wrapped up the Atlantic.

Pac-12

Oregon >99%, 60%

Utah 90%, 40%

USC 7%, 1%

UCLA 3%, <1%

Utah is in the driver's seat in the South, but UCLA also controls their own destiny. The Utes are a 21 point favorite in their matchup in Salt Lake City tomorrow night. USC is technically alive as well.

American

Cincinnati 95%, 45%

UCF 3%, 2%

Temple 2%, 1%

Memphis 45%, 25%

SMU 30%, 15%
Navy 25%, 12%

Tulane 2%, 1%

Cincinnati has all but locked up the East after UCF's loss to Tulsa last week. The West is still quite open: Memphis controls their own destiny since they've beaten SMU and Navy, but they still have to play Cincinnati on Black Friday.

Mountain West

Boise State 90%, 70%

Air Force 5%, 2%

Utah State 3%, 1%

Wyoming 2%, 1%

San Diego State 50%, 15%

Hawai'i 25%, 5%

Fresno State 20%, 5%

Nevada 5%, 1%

Boise State should win their division barring any major hiccups, but the West division has 4 legitimate contenders. San Diego State fell to Nevada, and is a game ahead of the others in the loss column. However, they must play Fresno State and Hawai'i in their next 2 games.

MAC

Western Michigan 70%, 40%

Central Michigan 15%, 5%

Ball State 10%, 5%

Toledo 5%, 3%

Miami (OH) 100%, 45%

Miami (Ohio) clinched the East division for the first time since 2010 in midweek, but the West remains open. Western Michigan can win the division with a win at Northern Illinois, but CMU, Ball State and Toledo remain in the hunt.

Conference USA

Florida Atlantic 55%, 30%

Marshall 45%, 20%

Western Kentucky 1%, <1%

Louisiana Tech 95%, 45%

Southern Mississippi 5%, 3%

Marshall owns the head-to-head over FAU, so they control their own destiny. However, they have to play Louisiana Tech this weekend so FAU has a better shot of winning the division. The aforementioned Bulldogs are the clear cut favorites to win the West division.

Sun Belt
Appalachian State 80%, 45%

Georgia Southern 10%, 5%

Georgia State 10%, 3%

Louisiana 97%, 45%

ULM 3%, 1%

It looks like we're on a crash course for an Appalachian State/Louisiana championship game, and they've been far and away the best teams in the Sun Belt this year. Georgia State can make things interesting if they knock off App this week.