Post-Week 10 College Football Top 25

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The top four remains the same going into the massive Alabama/LSU game this weekend. Most of the other top teams were either on bye or playing cupcakes- the biggest change to the playoff picture was Georgia's win over Florida. It doesn't sow up the SEC East for Georgia, but it does put them one step closer to the playoff. The first number in parenthesis is a team's ranking last week, and the second is their probability of winning out to the conference championship game.

1. Clemson (1, 95.3%)
2. Ohio State (2, 63.6%)
3. Alabama (3, 44.2%)
4. LSU (4, 22.0%)
5. Georgia (6, 28.4%)

I have Alabama as a 6.5 point favorite at home against LSU on Saturday- exactly where the consensus line is right now. The winner of that game can essentially book their ticket to Atlanta to take on Georgia. The Bulldogs are moving up after their win over Florida, but are some distance behind the rest of the top 4.

6. Penn State (7, 9.4%)
7. Oklahoma (8, 28.7%)
8. Oregon (13, 78.9%)
9. Auburn (5, 18.1%)
10. Utah (9, 81.9%)

Aside from Auburn, the other 4 teams in this tier all have very real playoff hopes. If I had to pick one team out of this group to make the playoff, it would be Oregon. Penn State still has some tricky games coming up and is going to be a bit behind in the pecking order even at 11-1.

11. Michigan (10, 14.8%)
12. UCF (12, 71.0%
13. Florida (11, 56.0%)
14. Wisconsin (14, 25.2%)
15. Washington (15, 52.8%)

UCF remains my top Group of Five team by far- this is reflected in S&P+ and many other predictive ratings. Elsewhere in this group, Florida had their playoff hopes ended with their loss to Georgia this week and Wisconsin plays a big game against Iowa. The Badgers still harbor a realistic shot at the Rose Bowl, but it's likely gone if they lose this week.

16. Iowa (17, 15.0%)
17. Iowa State (18, 6.3%)
18. Minnesota (20, 6.8%)
19. Texas A&M (19, 3.2%)
20. Kansas State (26, 13.7%)

The team to watch here is obviously Minnesota. The Golden Gophers came in #17 in the committee's initial rankings, but will likely rocket upwards if they beat Penn State this week. I have the line closer than the consensus, I only have Minnesota as a four point underdog at home.

21. Oklahoma State (22, 21.6%)
22. Texas (23, 6.4%)
23. Appalachian State (16, 38.2%)
24. Baylor (21, 5.9%)
25. Notre Dame (24, 18.8%)

This is a very Big 12 heavy group- the upper middle class of the Big 12 is incredibly strong- there's 5 or 6 teams in the conference that are capable of beating a playoff quality team on their best day. I'm still not really buying Baylor as a legitimate playoff contender, I have them as a 1 point underdog at TCU.

Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Washington State, Boise State, Virginia, Louisiana, Memphis, TCU, Missouri, Tennessee, Air Force

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