Bowl Projections 11/3/19

Now that there's only 4 weeks left in college football season, I'm bringing back my bowl projections. There's a lot of guesswork involved in this process, as bowl tie-ins are more fluid than they were a few years ago. There's also going to be a lot of empty SEC slots, likely some empty Big Ten slots, and too many bowl eligible ACC teams. That leads to some strange matchups in the projections below.

Peach: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta: Alabama vs. Clemson

I was deciding between Oregon, LSU and Oklahoma for the last playoff spot. I give the Ducks around a 40% chance of being 12-1 Pac-12 champions so I decided to give it to them. If it comes down to 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon and 11-1 LSU, I'm unsure what the committee would do.

Rose: Penn State vs. Utah
Sugar: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Wake Forest vs. Georgia
Cotton: Baylor vs. Cincinnati

The Rose and Sugar bowls fall into place nicely. I give Cincinnati the best chance to win the American, and slot them into the Cotton Bowl. Baylor edged out Florida and Minnesota for the last spot in the New Year's Six.

Citrus: Wisconsin vs. Florida
Outback: Michigan vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer: Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Holiday: Minnesota vs. USC

Slotting the Big 10 teams is difficult- Minnesota is the real wild card here. If they lose two or three games down the stretch, they'll fall down to the Holiday or further.

Liberty: TCU vs. Tennessee
Redbox: Indiana vs. Arizona State
Sun: Pittsburgh vs. Stanford
Military: North Carolina vs. Navy

I've assumed that Navy would want to play their hometown bowl, but they've been there a lot recently and a different AAC team may get this spot.

Arizona: Nevada vs. Georgia Southern
Belk: Virginia vs. Kentucky
Alamo: Kansas State vs. Washington
Camping World: Notre Dame vs. Texas
Music City: Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State
Texas: Iowa State vs. Louisiana Tech*

There's far too few bowl eligible SEC teams, which leads to tricky spots like this. I thought about slotting a team from the American in here but settled on Louisiana Tech.

Pinstripe: Miami (FL) vs. Michigan State
Independence: Louisville vs. UAB*
Cheez-It: Oklahoma State vs. San Diego State*

It's possible one of Cal, Oregon State or UCLA gets to 6 wins, but if not the Pac-12 will have an open slot in the Cheez-It Bowl for the Mountain West to take.

Quick Lane: Boston College vs. Illinois
First Responder: Utah State vs. FIU
Hawaii: BYU vs. Hawaii
Dollar General: Central Michigan vs. Louisiana
Armed Forces: Buffalo* vs. Air Force
Birmingham: NC State vs. Memphis
Potato: Wyoming vs. Western Michigan

The color scheme of Wyoming and Western Michigan's uniforms on the blue turf in Boise would be quite a sight to behold.

Bahamas: Toledo vs. Marshall
Gasparilla: UCF vs. Florida Atlantic

The American has so many good teams this year that at least one of them is going to be stuck with a really awful bowl situation like this.

Frisco: Temple vs. Miami (OH)
Boca Raton: SMU vs. Ohio
New Orleans: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State
Camellia: Ball State vs. Georgia State
Las Vegas: Washington State vs. Boise State
New Mexico: Fresno State vs. Southern Miss
Cure: Tulane vs. Arkansas State

Bowl eligible but not selected: Eastern Michigan, Charlotte, Liberty