College Football Week 11 Picks
Preseason Win Totals 6-2: +25.84 units
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units
Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units
Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units
Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units
Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units
Season Total: 35-35-2 +27.29 units
A handful of my preseason win total bets are now locked in. My biggest bet, Florida State under 7.5, has hit, as has Wake Forest over 6. I've also won Liberty over and Nebraska under and lost Akron over and Baylor under. Last week was a relatively quiet 1-2 week as UTEP just failed to cover against North Texas.
Illinois @ Michigan State
Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as they beat Wisconsin a few weeks ago which they've turned into a 3 game win streak. The Illini are now one win away from bowl eligibility, and I think they have a good chance of picking it up here. My numbers hate Michigan State's offense and have this number around 1 touchdown or a little less, not 2 scores.
Illinois +14.5 -105 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ South Carolina
Appalachian State lost their first game of the season last week against archrival Georgia Southern, and will disappear from the national radar for the rest of the year. However, I still have them on the fringe of my top 25. South Carolina's season has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks since their win over Georgia, and I think App State should be a mild favorite here.
Appalachian State +6 -106 (2 units)
Western Kentucky @ Arkansas
This is an absolutely massive game for Arkansas- it's by far their best chance for a third win this year, and if they go 2-10 it's hard to see Chad Morris coming back next year. Western Kentucky is led by former Razorback QB Ty Storey and is one of the surprises of the year in Conference USA. I have the Hilltoppers as near touchdown favorites here.
Western Kentucky +1 -110 (2 units)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Iowa State has had a mildly disappointing season, and their loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago puts them on the fringes of the Big 12 title conversation. However, they're still a top 25 team in almost all predictive rankings, including my own. I think that this line should be below 10, Oklahoma is not that far ahead of the rest of the Big 12.
Iowa State +15 -107 (1 unit)
Kansas State @ Texas
I was on Kansas State a few weeks ago when they knocked off Oklahoma at home, and I like the Wildcats here again. Texas' defense has been horrible recently, getting torn up by Kansas and TCU. On the offensive side of the ball, Sam Ehlinger has regressed quite a bit in recent weeks and I think it's unlikely Texas makes the Big 12 title game.
Kansas State +7 -108 (1 unit)
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units
Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units
Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units
Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units
Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units
Season Total: 35-35-2 +27.29 units
A handful of my preseason win total bets are now locked in. My biggest bet, Florida State under 7.5, has hit, as has Wake Forest over 6. I've also won Liberty over and Nebraska under and lost Akron over and Baylor under. Last week was a relatively quiet 1-2 week as UTEP just failed to cover against North Texas.
Illinois @ Michigan State
Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as they beat Wisconsin a few weeks ago which they've turned into a 3 game win streak. The Illini are now one win away from bowl eligibility, and I think they have a good chance of picking it up here. My numbers hate Michigan State's offense and have this number around 1 touchdown or a little less, not 2 scores.
Illinois +14.5 -105 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ South Carolina
Appalachian State lost their first game of the season last week against archrival Georgia Southern, and will disappear from the national radar for the rest of the year. However, I still have them on the fringe of my top 25. South Carolina's season has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks since their win over Georgia, and I think App State should be a mild favorite here.
Appalachian State +6 -106 (2 units)
Western Kentucky @ Arkansas
This is an absolutely massive game for Arkansas- it's by far their best chance for a third win this year, and if they go 2-10 it's hard to see Chad Morris coming back next year. Western Kentucky is led by former Razorback QB Ty Storey and is one of the surprises of the year in Conference USA. I have the Hilltoppers as near touchdown favorites here.
Western Kentucky +1 -110 (2 units)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Iowa State has had a mildly disappointing season, and their loss to Oklahoma State two weeks ago puts them on the fringes of the Big 12 title conversation. However, they're still a top 25 team in almost all predictive rankings, including my own. I think that this line should be below 10, Oklahoma is not that far ahead of the rest of the Big 12.
Iowa State +15 -107 (1 unit)
Kansas State @ Texas
I was on Kansas State a few weeks ago when they knocked off Oklahoma at home, and I like the Wildcats here again. Texas' defense has been horrible recently, getting torn up by Kansas and TCU. On the offensive side of the ball, Sam Ehlinger has regressed quite a bit in recent weeks and I think it's unlikely Texas makes the Big 12 title game.
Kansas State +7 -108 (1 unit)
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