Bowl Projections 11/17/19

It was a bad week for teams on the cut line for bowl eligibility, and I now only project 78 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. There's thus no more projected 6-6 teams not in bowl games.

Peach: LSU vs. Utah
Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Clemson

I've moved Utah up into the playoff. If chalk all holds from here, it's going to come down to 12-1 Oklahoma vs. a 12-1 Pac-12 champion for the last playoff spot. The losses (at USC and at Kansas State) would be comparable, and I think Utah would have the stronger wins to give them the nod.

Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Orange: Virginia vs. Alabama
Cotton: Florida vs. Cincinnati

I think that without Tua, Alabama is going to end up being around a pick'em at Auburn so I've projected they lose that and fall to the Orange Bowl. Baylor is likely out of the NY6 conversation with another loss, so the last spot likely comes down to Florida or a 2-loss Minnesota or Michigan.

Citrus: Minnesota vs. Auburn
Outback: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M
Gator: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Putting 4 SEC teams in the NY6 bowls means that some mediocre SEC teams are going to end up in good bowl games. Tennessee is a prime beneficiary, as they land a Gator Bowl bid against Iowa.

Holiday: Michigan vs. USC
Liberty: Iowa State vs. Mississippi State
Redbox: Illinois vs. Arizona State
Sun: Pittsburgh vs. California

The Pac-12 has a lot of teams who are pretty close to 50/50 for bowl eligibility. Arizona State and Cal are among them, as are Washington State, Oregon State and Stanford.

Military: Louisville vs. Memphis
Arizona: Wyoming vs. Western Kentucky*
Belk: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Alamo: Baylor vs. Washington
Camping World: Notre Dame vs. Texas

I wouldn't be shocked if a Notre Dame/Texas matchup in Orlando draws better ratings than one of the NY6 bowls. Texas' loss to Iowa State dropped them here.

Music City: Miami (FL) vs. UCF*
Texas: Oklahoma State vs. SMU*

With how many open SEC slots there are, I tried to have some fun with these matchups and give some AAC teams good bowl bids.

Pinstripe: Virginia Tech vs. Indiana
Independence: Florida State vs. Louisiana*
Cheez-It: Kansas State vs. San Diego State
Quick Lane: North Carolina vs. Michigan State

The Tar Heels and Spartans played a big game in Detroit in April of 2009, this one would not have as high stakes.

First Responder: TCU vs. Marshall
Hawaii: BYU vs. Hawaii

BYU became the first team to accept a bowl bid when they accepted a spot in the Hawaii Bowl yesterday.

Dollar General: Miami (OH) vs. Georgia Southern
Armed Forces: Liberty vs. Air Force
Birmingham: Charlotte* vs. Navy
Potato: Nevada vs. Central Michigan
Bahamas: Toledo vs. Florida Atlantic
Gasparilla: Temple vs. Louisiana Tech
Frisco: Boston College* vs. Buffalo

The ACC is the only power conference team that may have too many bowl eligible teams, so Boston College ends up in a weird spot.

Boca Raton: Tulane vs. Western Michigan
New Orleans: UAB vs. Appalachian State
Camellia: Eastern Michigan vs. Georgia State
Las Vegas: Washington State vs. Boise State
New Mexico: Utah State vs. Southern Miss
Cure: Ohio* vs. Arkansas State

Eligible but not selected: None