Post-Week 11 College Football Top 25
The 25 teams in this ranking are the same as last week, although there's been some shuffling around in the order. We're down to around 11 possible playoff contenders, but only 3 or 4 of them could legitimately win the national championship. The first number in parenthesis is a team's ranking last week, and the second is their probability of winning out to the conference championship game.
1. Clemson (1, 97.5%)
2. Ohio State (2, 68.4%)
3. Alabama (3, 56.7%)
4. LSU (4, 78.1%)
5. Georgia (5, 36.9%)
The order of the top 5 remains the same as last week, despite LSU's win at Alabama. That closed the gap between those two teams quite a bit, and now Clemson and Ohio State are far ahead of the pack. The Buckeyes are just a fraction of a point away from overtaking Clemson from #1, although it appears likely they'll end up playing in a playoff semifinal.
6. Oregon (8, 80.6%)
7. Auburn (9, 19.5%)
8. Penn State (6, 11.9%)
9. Utah (10, 80.6%)
10. Florida (13, 69.1%)
Florida jumps up a bit after their demolition of Vanderbilt. However, the 3 teams in this group with legitimate playoff aspirations are Oregon, Penn State and Utah. Penn State and Oregon don't quite control their own destinies for the playoff, but they're probably close. Utah might need a little more help.
11. Michigan (11, 13.3%)
12. Oklahoma (7, 32.9%)
13. Wisconsin (14, 32.6%)
14. Iowa State (17, 29.4%)
15. UCF (12, 72.8%)
Oklahoma needed a questionable pass interference no-call on a 2-point conversion to get past Iowa State on Saturday. The Cyclones have been quite unlucky this year and are a solid top 15 or 20 team in most predictive rankings- I wouldn't be surprised to see them blow the doors off some SEC team in their bowl game.
16. Minnesota (18, 22.0%)
17. Iowa (16, 41.5%)
18. Washington (15, 68.5%)
19. Texas A&M (19, 2.5%)
20. Kansas State (20, 26.5%)
Minnesota remains undefeated and is a little worse than a coin flip to beat Iowa on the road this weekend. I was higher than almost everyone else on the Golden Gophers in the preseason, but I don't think they're worthy of the top 10 placement that they're getting in most resume-style rankings.
21. Notre Dame (25, 45.5%)
22. Appalachian State (23, 65.2%)
23. Oklahoma State (21, 26.4%)
24. Texas (22, 9.0%)
25. Baylor (24, 16.8%)
Baylor remains the most confusing team in the country- they're still undefeated, but have one two games in overtime and three other by one score. The first overtime win over Texas Tech was aided by some really strange refereeing at the end of the game, but of the Bears win four more games they're going to the playoff.
Missed the Cut: Louisiana, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Miami, Memphis, Boise State, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia, Indiana
1. Clemson (1, 97.5%)
2. Ohio State (2, 68.4%)
3. Alabama (3, 56.7%)
4. LSU (4, 78.1%)
5. Georgia (5, 36.9%)
The order of the top 5 remains the same as last week, despite LSU's win at Alabama. That closed the gap between those two teams quite a bit, and now Clemson and Ohio State are far ahead of the pack. The Buckeyes are just a fraction of a point away from overtaking Clemson from #1, although it appears likely they'll end up playing in a playoff semifinal.
6. Oregon (8, 80.6%)
7. Auburn (9, 19.5%)
8. Penn State (6, 11.9%)
9. Utah (10, 80.6%)
10. Florida (13, 69.1%)
Florida jumps up a bit after their demolition of Vanderbilt. However, the 3 teams in this group with legitimate playoff aspirations are Oregon, Penn State and Utah. Penn State and Oregon don't quite control their own destinies for the playoff, but they're probably close. Utah might need a little more help.
11. Michigan (11, 13.3%)
12. Oklahoma (7, 32.9%)
13. Wisconsin (14, 32.6%)
14. Iowa State (17, 29.4%)
15. UCF (12, 72.8%)
Oklahoma needed a questionable pass interference no-call on a 2-point conversion to get past Iowa State on Saturday. The Cyclones have been quite unlucky this year and are a solid top 15 or 20 team in most predictive rankings- I wouldn't be surprised to see them blow the doors off some SEC team in their bowl game.
16. Minnesota (18, 22.0%)
17. Iowa (16, 41.5%)
18. Washington (15, 68.5%)
19. Texas A&M (19, 2.5%)
20. Kansas State (20, 26.5%)
Minnesota remains undefeated and is a little worse than a coin flip to beat Iowa on the road this weekend. I was higher than almost everyone else on the Golden Gophers in the preseason, but I don't think they're worthy of the top 10 placement that they're getting in most resume-style rankings.
21. Notre Dame (25, 45.5%)
22. Appalachian State (23, 65.2%)
23. Oklahoma State (21, 26.4%)
24. Texas (22, 9.0%)
25. Baylor (24, 16.8%)
Baylor remains the most confusing team in the country- they're still undefeated, but have one two games in overtime and three other by one score. The first overtime win over Texas Tech was aided by some really strange refereeing at the end of the game, but of the Bears win four more games they're going to the playoff.
Missed the Cut: Louisiana, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Miami, Memphis, Boise State, Texas Tech, USC, Virginia, Indiana
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