Bracketology 3/10/16

1) Holy Cross winning the Patriot League tournament is truly one of the most unlikely things I've ever seen in college basketball. Kenpom had them at a .05% chance to win the tournament. For comparison, here were the odds of various other crazy March feats, according to Kenpom:
Florida Gulf Coast making the Sweet 16 in 2013: 2.1% (40 times more likely)
Norfolk State and Lehigh both making the Round of 32 in 2012: .84% (17 times more likely)
Austin Peay winning the 2016 OVC tournament: .50% (10 times more likely)

2) Syracuse is a long shot to get an at-large now after their loss to Pitt yesterday. I don't see Boeheim's absence being a real factor, and even if it is Syracuse's RPI is 67 which is prohibitively high.

3) Bubble teams in action today:
Michigan- A loss knocks them totally out of the picture.

Pittsburgh- They're almost certainly in even with a loss.
Florida- If they lose, there's almost no shot at an at-large.
Butler/Providence- Both teams are almost certainly safe no matter what.
George Washington- Also totally done if they lose.
San Diego State- They'd have a <10% chance of an at-large if they lost.
Washington- A win is necessary to keep their hopes alive.
Vanderbilt- I will likely have them in even if they lose but they'll be right on the cut line.
Ohio State- They're in a win or go home situation until the Big Ten final.

1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, Xavier, Michigan State, North Carolina
3: Utah, Miami (FL), West Virginia, Indiana
4: Purdue, Duke, Kentucky, Maryland
5: California, Arizona, Iowa State, Texas A&M
6: Texas, Dayton, Iowa, Baylor
7: Wisconsin, Colorado, Seton Hall, Notre Dame
8: USC, Oregon State, St. Joseph's, Texas Tech
9: Providence, Butler, St. Bonaventure, Pittsburgh
10: South Carolina, Cincinnati, VCU, (St. Mary's/Vanderbilt)
11: (Wichita State/Tulsa), Gonzaga, Temple, San Diego State
12: Arkansas-LR, Akron, Yale, South Dakota State
13: Northern Iowa, UNC Wilmington, Chattanooga, Stony Brook
14: Iona, UAB, Hawaii, Stephen F. Austin
15: New Mexico State, Green Bay, Weber State, UNC Asheville
16: Hampton, Florida Gulf Coast, (Texas Southern/Farleigh Dickinson) (Austin Peay/Holy Cross)

Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Removed From Consideration: Stanford, Florida State

First Four Out: San Diego State, Arkansas-LR, Valparaiso, Monmouth
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Hofstra, George Washington, Michigan
Also Considered: Florida, Washington, Houston


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