Bracketology 3/12/16
1) Today's bracket is updated to reflect the latest run of my model. I'm a little skeptical about certain things, such as how high St. Mary's and St. Joseph's are, but my model has been very accurate over the past four years so I'll defer to its judgement.
2) Here's what today's bubble teams need to do to get in:
Michigan: If they lose, they're probably 50/50 to get in. If the win, they're quite safe.
LSU: Almost certainly needs the auto-bid. An at-large isn't impossible if they win today and lose close tomorrow.
Arkansas-LR: They probably need the auto-bid no matter what, but a loss today definitely does them in.
Connecticut/Temple: A loss for either team today would put them at slightly worse than 50/50 to get in.
Georgia: They're a real long shot- they definitely need to win today and probably need to tomorrow.
San Diego State: I'm increasingly optimistic about their at-large chances should they lose today, but it's probably worse than 50/50.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, North Carolina, West Virginia, Michigan State
3: Utah, Xavier, Miami (FL), Indiana
4: Kentucky, California, Maryland, Duke
5: Iowa State, Texas A&M, Purdue, Texas
6: Arizona, Seton Hall, Baylor, Dayton
7: Iowa, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, St. Joseph's
8: Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Providence
9: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, USC, Butler
10: Gonzaga, VCU, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
11: San Diego State, (Wichita State/South Carolina), Temple, (Michigan/Connecticut)
12: Arkansas-LR, Akron, South Dakota State, UNC Wilmington
13: Yale, Chattanooga, Northern Iowa, Stony Brook
14: Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Hawaii, Middle Tennessee State
15: New Mexico State, Green Bay, Weber State, UNC Asheville
16: Hampton, Florida Gulf Coast, (Southern/Farleigh Dickinson) (Austin Peay/Holy Cross)
Moving In: Michigan, Southern
Moving Out: Tulsa, Texas Southern
Removed From Consideration: George Washington, Florida, Houston
First Four Out: Valparaiso, Vanderbilt, Monmouth, Syracuse
Also Considered: Tulsa, Hofstra, Georgia
2) Here's what today's bubble teams need to do to get in:
Michigan: If they lose, they're probably 50/50 to get in. If the win, they're quite safe.
LSU: Almost certainly needs the auto-bid. An at-large isn't impossible if they win today and lose close tomorrow.
Arkansas-LR: They probably need the auto-bid no matter what, but a loss today definitely does them in.
Connecticut/Temple: A loss for either team today would put them at slightly worse than 50/50 to get in.
Georgia: They're a real long shot- they definitely need to win today and probably need to tomorrow.
San Diego State: I'm increasingly optimistic about their at-large chances should they lose today, but it's probably worse than 50/50.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Oregon, North Carolina, West Virginia, Michigan State
3: Utah, Xavier, Miami (FL), Indiana
4: Kentucky, California, Maryland, Duke
5: Iowa State, Texas A&M, Purdue, Texas
6: Arizona, Seton Hall, Baylor, Dayton
7: Iowa, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, St. Joseph's
8: Colorado, Wisconsin, Oregon State, Providence
9: St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, USC, Butler
10: Gonzaga, VCU, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
11: San Diego State, (Wichita State/South Carolina), Temple, (Michigan/Connecticut)
12: Arkansas-LR, Akron, South Dakota State, UNC Wilmington
13: Yale, Chattanooga, Northern Iowa, Stony Brook
14: Stephen F. Austin, Iona, Hawaii, Middle Tennessee State
15: New Mexico State, Green Bay, Weber State, UNC Asheville
16: Hampton, Florida Gulf Coast, (Southern/Farleigh Dickinson) (Austin Peay/Holy Cross)
Moving In: Michigan, Southern
Moving Out: Tulsa, Texas Southern
Removed From Consideration: George Washington, Florida, Houston
First Four Out: Valparaiso, Vanderbilt, Monmouth, Syracuse
Also Considered: Tulsa, Hofstra, Georgia
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