Bracketology 3/7/16
1) The only real bubble movement today was Cincinnati's win over SMU. This is a big win for Cincinnati, and they're now 8 spots above the cut line. Their first AAC tourney game is against Connecticut, so barring a semifinal loss to USF or something crazy like that I feel pretty good about the Bearcats' at-large chances.
2) Only four bubble teams play tomorrow- St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Valparaiso and Monmouth. All four have distinctly different at-large situations right now:
St. Mary's should be feeling pretty good. I know I'm higher on them than most, but even if they lose to Pepperdine for a 3rd time this season I will probably still have them above a First Four game.
In my mind, Gonzaga is cooked if they lose tomorrow. I think they're still unlikely to get an at-large should they not win the WCC tournament, but perhaps the committee will take their good Kenpom/Sagarin ratings into account, which there is little precedent for.
Valparaiso has a legitimate at-large hope, although I likely won't have them in my final field if they don't win the Horizon tourney. The committee has looked favorably on bubble teams from Horizon-ish conferences in recent years (such as 2013 Middle Tennessee and 2012 Iona) and they've looked unfavorably on teams from American-ish conferences in recent years (such as 2014 Colorado State and Temple). Thus, it's possible.
I think Monmouth is very unlikely to get an at-large should they lose tomorrow. They'd be my last team in right now without their autobid, so the ~6 places they'd drop with a loss would be a big hole that other bubble teams would have to dig them out of. However, it's possible that the committee would decide to give Monmouth a bid anyways to encourage harder non-conference schedules, as that's been a major talking point of theirs in recent years.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Xavier, Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan State
3: Utah, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana
4: Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, Purdue
5: Iowa State, Texas A&M, Arizona, Iowa
6: Dayton, Texas, California, Baylor
7: Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Colorado
8: Oregon State, Notre Dame, St. Bonaventure, Providence
9: St. Mary's, USC, St. Joseph's, South Carolina
10: Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Butler, Cincinnati
11: (VCU/Vanderbilt), Valparaiso, (Tulsa/Syracuse), Temple
12: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State, South Dakota State
13: Akron, Hofstra, Yale, Northern Iowa
14: Chattanooga, Stony Brook, UAB, Stephen F. Austin
15: Hawaii, New Mexico State, Weber State, Hampton
16: Wagner, Lehigh, (UNC Asheville/Florida Gulf Coast), (Austin Peay/Texas Southern)
Moving In: Northern Iowa, Hofstra, UNC Asheville
Moving Out: Evansville, UNC Wilmington, Winthrop
Removed from Consideration: Princeton, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, UCLA
Legitimate Possibilities: Gonzaga, Connecticut, Michigan, Florida
Long Shots: Arkansas-LR, Florida State, Houston, Washington, George Washington, Stanford
2) Only four bubble teams play tomorrow- St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Valparaiso and Monmouth. All four have distinctly different at-large situations right now:
St. Mary's should be feeling pretty good. I know I'm higher on them than most, but even if they lose to Pepperdine for a 3rd time this season I will probably still have them above a First Four game.
In my mind, Gonzaga is cooked if they lose tomorrow. I think they're still unlikely to get an at-large should they not win the WCC tournament, but perhaps the committee will take their good Kenpom/Sagarin ratings into account, which there is little precedent for.
Valparaiso has a legitimate at-large hope, although I likely won't have them in my final field if they don't win the Horizon tourney. The committee has looked favorably on bubble teams from Horizon-ish conferences in recent years (such as 2013 Middle Tennessee and 2012 Iona) and they've looked unfavorably on teams from American-ish conferences in recent years (such as 2014 Colorado State and Temple). Thus, it's possible.
I think Monmouth is very unlikely to get an at-large should they lose tomorrow. They'd be my last team in right now without their autobid, so the ~6 places they'd drop with a loss would be a big hole that other bubble teams would have to dig them out of. However, it's possible that the committee would decide to give Monmouth a bid anyways to encourage harder non-conference schedules, as that's been a major talking point of theirs in recent years.
1: Kansas, Villanova, Virginia, Oklahoma
2: Xavier, Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan State
3: Utah, West Virginia, Miami (FL), Indiana
4: Kentucky, Duke, Maryland, Purdue
5: Iowa State, Texas A&M, Arizona, Iowa
6: Dayton, Texas, California, Baylor
7: Texas Tech, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, Colorado
8: Oregon State, Notre Dame, St. Bonaventure, Providence
9: St. Mary's, USC, St. Joseph's, South Carolina
10: Pittsburgh, Wichita State, Butler, Cincinnati
11: (VCU/Vanderbilt), Valparaiso, (Tulsa/Syracuse), Temple
12: Monmouth, Arkansas-LR, San Diego State, South Dakota State
13: Akron, Hofstra, Yale, Northern Iowa
14: Chattanooga, Stony Brook, UAB, Stephen F. Austin
15: Hawaii, New Mexico State, Weber State, Hampton
16: Wagner, Lehigh, (UNC Asheville/Florida Gulf Coast), (Austin Peay/Texas Southern)
Moving In: Northern Iowa, Hofstra, UNC Asheville
Moving Out: Evansville, UNC Wilmington, Winthrop
Removed from Consideration: Princeton, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, UCLA
Legitimate Possibilities: Gonzaga, Connecticut, Michigan, Florida
Long Shots: Arkansas-LR, Florida State, Houston, Washington, George Washington, Stanford
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