College Football Week 3 Picks
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Last week didn't go as well as week 1, but I hit by far my biggest pick in ULM +21.5 as they went to overtime with Florida State. Some of the games I missed I was just plain wrong on (San Jose State, Syracuse, Kansas, Vanderbilt) but the Buffalo loss sure was frustrating. The Bulls lead at the half, possessed the ball for over 40 minutes, outgained Penn State, and failed to cover +29.5. I don't have the data on how often a team outgains their opponent and loses by 30, but it's not particularly frequent.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Western Kentucky has had a confusing start to the season, losing to FCS Central Arkansas and then beating a projected bowl team on the road in FIU. Louisville is one of the worst team is the Power Five though, and while they looked OK against Notre Dame a few weeks ago, my rating for them is still heavily influenced by last year where they were possibly the worst ACC team of the last decade. I think that this spread should be much closer to even than it is.
Western Kentucky +10.5 -109 (3 units)
NC State @ West Virginia
I was higher on West Virginia than most in the preseason, and that's still the case. They're definitely a young team, but they're still a potential bowl team. NC State, on the other hand, is one of the more overrated teams in the Power Five. I don't think they're a bowl team, even in the weak ACC Atlantic, as they return very little from last year's team that floundered down the stretch. I think the Mountaineers should be a mild favorite here.
West Virginia +6.5 +103 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Wake Forest
Around this time of the season, my model often starts fading teams that are off to hot starts, as it's often less reactionary than the consensus. North Carolina has drawn a lot of attention in recent weeks for surprisingly starting 2-0, yet the fact remains that they were a disaster last year and are probably not more than a 6-6 team. Wake Forest is not far from the top 25 and should be a bigger favorite here.
Wake Forest -3 +102 (2 units)
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati was picked by many as the top G5 team in the offseason, but got destroyed by Ohio State last week. UCF looks like the clear top team in the G5 now, not Cincinnati or Memphis. Miami put up a decent fight against Iowa a few weeks ago, and should be a bowl team in the MAC. The Redhawks should not be getting 17 points here.
Miami (OH) +17 +102 (2 units)
Stanford @ UCF
Once again, I'm on UCF as the Golden Knights are in my top 10 as they're closer to 20th in most other ratings. This is a bit of a tricky game to price due to Stanford's injury concerns, and I've reduced my size on this game compared to what I was planning earlier in the week as the line has moved from UCF -7 to UCF -9. Still, the Golden Knights are undervalued here.
UCF -9 -105 (1 unit)
Ohio State @ Indiana (+8.5)
Indiana is another team that I was higher than the consensus on in the preseason, and that continues here. They return a staggering 88% of their offensive production from last year, and as a result are more likely than not to beat one of Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State this season. The Buckeyes are certainly a top 10, perhaps a top 5 team, but this is a trickier road game than it may appear.
Indiana +16.5 -105 (1 unit)
Texas State @ SMU (-8.8)
SMU is off to a bit of a surprising 2-0 start, but once again I think this line is an overreaction to the Ponies' early season success. I would've had this line at SMU -4 in the preseason and there's no reason for it have moved 13 points in 2 weeks from Texas State performing roughly as expected and SMU surpassing expectations a bit. I'm on the Bobcats here.
Texas State +17.5 -102 (1 unit)
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Last week didn't go as well as week 1, but I hit by far my biggest pick in ULM +21.5 as they went to overtime with Florida State. Some of the games I missed I was just plain wrong on (San Jose State, Syracuse, Kansas, Vanderbilt) but the Buffalo loss sure was frustrating. The Bulls lead at the half, possessed the ball for over 40 minutes, outgained Penn State, and failed to cover +29.5. I don't have the data on how often a team outgains their opponent and loses by 30, but it's not particularly frequent.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville
Western Kentucky has had a confusing start to the season, losing to FCS Central Arkansas and then beating a projected bowl team on the road in FIU. Louisville is one of the worst team is the Power Five though, and while they looked OK against Notre Dame a few weeks ago, my rating for them is still heavily influenced by last year where they were possibly the worst ACC team of the last decade. I think that this spread should be much closer to even than it is.
Western Kentucky +10.5 -109 (3 units)
NC State @ West Virginia
I was higher on West Virginia than most in the preseason, and that's still the case. They're definitely a young team, but they're still a potential bowl team. NC State, on the other hand, is one of the more overrated teams in the Power Five. I don't think they're a bowl team, even in the weak ACC Atlantic, as they return very little from last year's team that floundered down the stretch. I think the Mountaineers should be a mild favorite here.
West Virginia +6.5 +103 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Wake Forest
Around this time of the season, my model often starts fading teams that are off to hot starts, as it's often less reactionary than the consensus. North Carolina has drawn a lot of attention in recent weeks for surprisingly starting 2-0, yet the fact remains that they were a disaster last year and are probably not more than a 6-6 team. Wake Forest is not far from the top 25 and should be a bigger favorite here.
Wake Forest -3 +102 (2 units)
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati was picked by many as the top G5 team in the offseason, but got destroyed by Ohio State last week. UCF looks like the clear top team in the G5 now, not Cincinnati or Memphis. Miami put up a decent fight against Iowa a few weeks ago, and should be a bowl team in the MAC. The Redhawks should not be getting 17 points here.
Miami (OH) +17 +102 (2 units)
Stanford @ UCF
Once again, I'm on UCF as the Golden Knights are in my top 10 as they're closer to 20th in most other ratings. This is a bit of a tricky game to price due to Stanford's injury concerns, and I've reduced my size on this game compared to what I was planning earlier in the week as the line has moved from UCF -7 to UCF -9. Still, the Golden Knights are undervalued here.
UCF -9 -105 (1 unit)
Ohio State @ Indiana (+8.5)
Indiana is another team that I was higher than the consensus on in the preseason, and that continues here. They return a staggering 88% of their offensive production from last year, and as a result are more likely than not to beat one of Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State this season. The Buckeyes are certainly a top 10, perhaps a top 5 team, but this is a trickier road game than it may appear.
Indiana +16.5 -105 (1 unit)
Texas State @ SMU (-8.8)
SMU is off to a bit of a surprising 2-0 start, but once again I think this line is an overreaction to the Ponies' early season success. I would've had this line at SMU -4 in the preseason and there's no reason for it have moved 13 points in 2 weeks from Texas State performing roughly as expected and SMU surpassing expectations a bit. I'm on the Bobcats here.
Texas State +17.5 -102 (1 unit)
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