College Football Week 2 Picks
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 1 went about as well as I could've hoped, going 7-1-1. I lost a 1 unit play on Georgia Southern +27 and pushed a 2 unit bet on Notre Dame -18, but my other 7 plays, including my biggest ones on the week, all hit. Two of my underdog picks, Nevada +11 and Georgia State +26 won straight up as well.
ULM @ Florida State
In my preseason win total projections, my two favorite plays were Florida State under 7.5 wins and ULM over 5 wins. It should then come as no surprise that I am all over the Warhawks this week. Florida State already failed to cover last week against Boise State, and I'm likely going to be fading them repeatedly throughout the early part of the season. This is likely to be my biggest single game play of the season.
ULM +21.5 -101 (7 units)
Buffalo @ Penn State
A common theme of my picks in week 1, which will persist through much of September, is picking mediocre G5 teams who are substantial underdogs. Like Georgia State or Nevada last week, Buffalo is a solid team that should win 6 or 7 games in the MAC this year. Penn State is a solid team that just climbed into my top 25, but this line should be closer to 2 touchdowns than 4.
Buffalo +29.5 -103 (3 units)
Army @ Michigan
This is one of the more hyped games of week 2 as Army is coming off their best season in decades and this is the only game they figure to be an underdog in. However, this pick is more about Michigan than Army for me- the Wolverines are #14 in my most recent rankings, quite a bit below their #7 or so position in most other rankings. No team of Army's caliber should be getting 22 points against anyone other than Alabama, Clemson or Georgia.
Army +22 -103 (2 units)
UCF @ Florida Atlantic
UCF is the only team in my top 10 that is not commonly seen in the consensus top 10 at this point. The Knights return a decent amount of their production on the lines, and are by far the best team in the G5. Florida Atlantic is an OK team, but as a 6-6 or so Conference USA team should be bigger underdogs here.
UCF -10.5 -110 (2 units)
Vanderbilt @ Purdue
In the last few seasons, I've tended to have a handful of teams I consistently fade until my pricing converges with the market's, and Purdue is likely to be one of those teams this year. I picked them to finish under 7 wins in the preseason, and picked against them at Nevada last week. I'm backing Vanderbilt this week as well, as Purdue is an incredibly inexperienced team that would do well just to make a bowl this year.
Vanderbilt +7 -110 (2 units)
LSU @ Texas
Texas is another team that I was higher on than the consensus in the preseason, having them in my preseason top 5 while many other predictive metrics had them around 20th in the nation. Much of this was due to having tremendous returning experience at the two most important areas, QB and offensive line. I'm also a bit lower on LSU than the consensus, this is the second week in a row I'm picking against the Tigers.
Texas +6.5 -103 (2 units)
Tulsa @ San Jose State
San Jose State was one of my over picks in the preseason, as I don't think they're one of the 10 or so worst teams in the FBS like they were being priced. Both of these teams performed roughly as expected last week, but I'm likely to be backing the Spartans for multiple weeks as they're one of the most under priced teams in the sport.
San Jose State +6.5 +102 (2 units)
Syracuse @ Maryland
This is a weird one- Syracuse opened as 5 point favorites, around where I have this line. Then in the course of a day, this line rapidly moved all the way to Maryland -1.5. I can't find record anywhere of a massive bet on Maryland, so I'm a bit puzzled as to why the Terps would be favored. My numbers say the opening line was pretty close to fair so I'm on the Orange for a unit.
Syracuse +1.5 -102 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina @ Kansas
I don't think Kansas is going to be as much of a dumpster fire this year as everyone else does- I'm not projecting a bowl, but 4 or 5 wins is very realistic. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, is one of the 10 or 15 worst teams in FBS. My system says Kansas has enough talent to be able to win by multiple scores against a team as raw as the Chanticleers.
Kansas -7 -109 (1 unit)
Week 1 went about as well as I could've hoped, going 7-1-1. I lost a 1 unit play on Georgia Southern +27 and pushed a 2 unit bet on Notre Dame -18, but my other 7 plays, including my biggest ones on the week, all hit. Two of my underdog picks, Nevada +11 and Georgia State +26 won straight up as well.
ULM @ Florida State
In my preseason win total projections, my two favorite plays were Florida State under 7.5 wins and ULM over 5 wins. It should then come as no surprise that I am all over the Warhawks this week. Florida State already failed to cover last week against Boise State, and I'm likely going to be fading them repeatedly throughout the early part of the season. This is likely to be my biggest single game play of the season.
ULM +21.5 -101 (7 units)
Buffalo @ Penn State
A common theme of my picks in week 1, which will persist through much of September, is picking mediocre G5 teams who are substantial underdogs. Like Georgia State or Nevada last week, Buffalo is a solid team that should win 6 or 7 games in the MAC this year. Penn State is a solid team that just climbed into my top 25, but this line should be closer to 2 touchdowns than 4.
Buffalo +29.5 -103 (3 units)
Army @ Michigan
This is one of the more hyped games of week 2 as Army is coming off their best season in decades and this is the only game they figure to be an underdog in. However, this pick is more about Michigan than Army for me- the Wolverines are #14 in my most recent rankings, quite a bit below their #7 or so position in most other rankings. No team of Army's caliber should be getting 22 points against anyone other than Alabama, Clemson or Georgia.
Army +22 -103 (2 units)
UCF @ Florida Atlantic
UCF is the only team in my top 10 that is not commonly seen in the consensus top 10 at this point. The Knights return a decent amount of their production on the lines, and are by far the best team in the G5. Florida Atlantic is an OK team, but as a 6-6 or so Conference USA team should be bigger underdogs here.
UCF -10.5 -110 (2 units)
Vanderbilt @ Purdue
In the last few seasons, I've tended to have a handful of teams I consistently fade until my pricing converges with the market's, and Purdue is likely to be one of those teams this year. I picked them to finish under 7 wins in the preseason, and picked against them at Nevada last week. I'm backing Vanderbilt this week as well, as Purdue is an incredibly inexperienced team that would do well just to make a bowl this year.
Vanderbilt +7 -110 (2 units)
LSU @ Texas
Texas is another team that I was higher on than the consensus in the preseason, having them in my preseason top 5 while many other predictive metrics had them around 20th in the nation. Much of this was due to having tremendous returning experience at the two most important areas, QB and offensive line. I'm also a bit lower on LSU than the consensus, this is the second week in a row I'm picking against the Tigers.
Texas +6.5 -103 (2 units)
Tulsa @ San Jose State
San Jose State was one of my over picks in the preseason, as I don't think they're one of the 10 or so worst teams in the FBS like they were being priced. Both of these teams performed roughly as expected last week, but I'm likely to be backing the Spartans for multiple weeks as they're one of the most under priced teams in the sport.
San Jose State +6.5 +102 (2 units)
Syracuse @ Maryland
This is a weird one- Syracuse opened as 5 point favorites, around where I have this line. Then in the course of a day, this line rapidly moved all the way to Maryland -1.5. I can't find record anywhere of a massive bet on Maryland, so I'm a bit puzzled as to why the Terps would be favored. My numbers say the opening line was pretty close to fair so I'm on the Orange for a unit.
Syracuse +1.5 -102 (1 unit)
Coastal Carolina @ Kansas
I don't think Kansas is going to be as much of a dumpster fire this year as everyone else does- I'm not projecting a bowl, but 4 or 5 wins is very realistic. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, is one of the 10 or 15 worst teams in FBS. My system says Kansas has enough talent to be able to win by multiple scores against a team as raw as the Chanticleers.
Kansas -7 -109 (1 unit)
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