Pre-Week 5 Championship and Division Odds

Throughout the last few months I've been working on a tool to simulate the remaining weeks of the college football season. I decided to fire up the simulator to see what the state of the various conference races is in my model's eyes. The numbers listed below are rough probabilities, my model's current best guess to within a few percent. For all teams, the first number reported is their probability to win their division (or, in the case of the Big 12, make the conference championship game) and the second is their probability to win their conference.

SEC West

Alabama: 65%, 40%

LSU: 20%, 10%

Auburn: 10%, 5%

Mississippi State: 5%, 2%

Texas A&M, 1%, <1%

Ole Miss: <1%. <1%

Arkansas: <1%, <1%

Alabama is unsurprisingly the favorite to win the division, but I expected them to have a better than 65% chance to advance to Atlanta. They're favorites in every remaining game, but it's more likely than not that they drop a game somewhere along the way. LSU will be a substantial underdog to Alabama (I have the line at Alabama -9.5 right now) but gets Auburn and Florida at home. Auburn has an outside shot at the division, but still has to face Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama.

SEC East

Georgia: 75%, 35%

Florida: 20%, 5%

Kentucky: 2%, <1%

South Carolina: 1%, <1%

Vanderbilt: <1%, <1%

Tennessee: <1%, <1%

Missouri: Ineligible

Georgia is the significant favorite here as they have been all season, with Florida the only other team with a realistic shot at advancing to Atlanta. Missouri is in my top 25 and would not be far behind Florida if they weren't on a bowl ban this year that makes them ineligible for the division crown. Georgia's schedule is straightforward until November, but they then face a tricky 4 game stretch of Florida, Missouri, @Auburn and Texas A&M. I have the Dawgs as single digit favorites in each of those four games.

Big Ten East

Ohio State: 70%, 50%

Michigan State: 15%, 5%

Penn State; 10%, 3%

Michigan: 2%, 1%

Maryland: 2%, 1%

Indiana: 1%, <1%

Rutgers: <1%, <1%

In the preseason, I projected a dead heat between Ohio State and Michigan in the east, but while Michigan has stumbled repeatedly, Ohio State has climbed up to #3 in my ratings with numerous blowout wins. The Buckeyes are also lucky to faces all their significant opponents other than Michigan at home, as Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State all travel to the Horseshoe. I have them as 8 point favorites against Wisconsin and double digit favorites everywhere else. Michigan State and Penn State are fringe top 25 type teams that with some lucky breaks could spoil the Buckeyes' division title hopes.

Big Ten West

Wisconsin: 55%, 30%

Iowa: 30%, 8%

Minnesota: 5%, 1%

Nebraska: 5%, 1%

Purdue: 1%, <1%

Northwestern: 1%, <1%

Illinois: <1%, <1%

I had Iowa as the preseason favorite to win the division, but Wisconsin has come out firing on all cylinders and will be favored in every game except Ohio State. Iowa maintains a 30% chance of winning the division largely on the back of their schedule- while they must travel to Madison, they avoid Ohio State and Michigan State while the Badgers face both. Minnesota and Nebraska have outside shots at the division as well.

Big 12

Texas: 65%, 35%

Oklahoma: 55%, 35%

Kansas State: 20%, 7%

Oklahoma State: 20%, 7%

Iowa State: 20%, 7%

Texas Tech: 10%, 3%

TCU: 5%, 2%

Baylor: 3%, 1%

West Virginia: 1%, <1%

Kansas: <1%, <1%

The most surprising result to me in this whole exercise was seeing that Texas has better odds to make the Big 12 title game than Oklahoma. It makes sense though- the Longhorns have already beaten my #3 team in the conference (Oklahoma State) and get the #4 team (Kansas State) at home. The Sooners are a more likely bet to win the conference title game if they get there though, as I have them rated a bit above Texas. While most are predicting another Texas/Oklahoma title game, it's actually more likely than not that we see a different matchup. Kansas State and Oklahoma State have a good shot at making their first ever Big 12 title game.

ACC Atlantic

Clemson: 97%, 95%

Wake Forest: 2%, 1%

Boston College: <1%, <1%

Syracuse: <1%, <1%

NC State: <1%, <1%

Florida State: <1%, <1%

Louisville: <1%, <1%

Clemson is the most overwhelming favorite to win a conference in recent memory. In the preseason, I said their two hardest games would be in September against Syracuse and Texas A&M and they blew through both with ease. Wake Forest is the only other team in the Atlantic anywhere near my top 25, and could get selected over the Coastal champ for the Orange Bowl.

ACC Coastal

Virginia: 50%, 2%

Miami: 15%, <1%

Pittsburgh: 10%, <1%

North Carolina: 10%, <1%

Duke: 10%, <1%

Virginia Tech: 2%, <1%

Georgia Tech: 2%, <1%

"Coastal Chaos" is back once again. Every team not named Virginia has won this division in the last 6 years, and UVA is looking to make it 7 unique champs in 7 years. Every team is still in the running in this division though: Miami is the second pick despite already being 0-1 in conference. In many simulations, the Coastal is won in a multi-way tiebreaker at 5-3 in conference.

Pac-12 North

Oregon: 60%, 35%

Washington: 30%, 20%

California: 10%, 5%

Washington State: 2%, 1%

Stanford: <1%, <1%

Oregon State: <1%, <1%

Despite their early losses, Oregon and Washington remain the best teams in the conference and it's more likely than not that one of them wins the conference. I rate the Ducks higher, but they have to travel to both Washington and USC. Washington gets both USC and Oregon at home, and may not face another bowl team on the road all year. Cal, while unbeaten, is not anywhere near my top 25 and is barely a favorite at home against Arizona State this week.

Pac-12 South

USC: 55%, 25%

Utah: 25%, 7%

Arizona State: 5%, 2%

UCLA: 5%, 2%

Arizona: 5%, 2%

Colorado: 3%, 1%

After their big win over Utah last week, USC is in the driver's seat in the Pac-12 south. I don't think a division title would be enough for Clay Helton to keep his job, but a conference title and a Rose Bowl bid probably would be. Utah was always lower in my ratings than in the AP poll, and is already a game back and a tiebreaker down against USC. All the other teams are still in the hunt though, UCLA showed what they're capable of last week and the Arizona schools could both surprise.