College Football Week 5 Picks
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Season Total: 17-16-1 +18.72 units
My 3 top picks last week all won straight up as underdogs. Cal and Appalachian State won close games and San Jose State won outright as a 21 point underdog at Arkansas.
New Mexico @ Liberty
This is one of the more surprising lines I've seen this season. Liberty is pretty widely regarded as a bowl team, I have them projected for 7.6 wins. New Mexico required a shootout to beat an awful New Mexico State team at home last week and won't be favored in another game all year. I think this line should be Liberty by 2 touchdowns, not 1.
Liberty -7 -116 (4 units)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech started the year with two wins over truly pitiful teams, and then laid an egg against Arizona two weeks ago. However, I still think they're a team that could make a bowl this year and are a tier above Kansas and West Virginia at the bottom of the Big 12. I remain lower on Oklahoma than most- I only give them a 35% chance to win the conference- and think this line should be below 20.
Texas Tech +27 -100 (3 units)
Rutgers @ Michigan
It hasn't been a great start to the year for Rutgers, even by their standards. They trailed UMass early before pulling away and then got blanked by Iowa and demolished by BC. However, my ratings think that Michigan doesn't have the offense to beat much of anyone by 28 points. The Scarlet Knights are a bit improved over past years and shouldn't be getting 4 touchdowns here.
Rutgers +28 -106 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ Marshall
Cincinnati was getting a lot of hype in the preseason as a potential New Year's Six team, but the wind came out of their sails quickly after a blowout loss to Ohio State. Marshall, on the other hand, is my highest rated Conference USA team by some distance. I think that Cincinnati is largely favored off of name recognition here, I think this line should be around Marshall -3.
Marshall +3.5 -102 (2 units)
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)
Miami got absolutely embarrassed by Ohio State last week, and is now looking like one of the worst teams in the MAC. Buffalo rebounded with a loss to Liberty by hammering a decent Temple team last week and is looking like one of the leading contenders in the conference- I have this line closer to double digits than 3.
Buffalo -3 -104 (2 units)
Kansas @ TCU
Kansas disappointed last week against West Virginia, failing to cover by half a point. I'm back on the Jayhawks this week though, as they travel to a TCU team that is still trying to figure things out at quarterback. I think that Kansas should only be a single digit underdog here.
Kansas +16 -115 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
Central Michigan has responded well to a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin, demolishing Akron and then hanging in until the last possession against Miami last week. I no longer think they're one of the worst teams in the MAC, they have a decent shot at a bowl this year and shouldn't be double digit dogs against an OK WMU team.
Central Michigan +17 -108 (1 unit)
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Season Total: 17-16-1 +18.72 units
My 3 top picks last week all won straight up as underdogs. Cal and Appalachian State won close games and San Jose State won outright as a 21 point underdog at Arkansas.
New Mexico @ Liberty
This is one of the more surprising lines I've seen this season. Liberty is pretty widely regarded as a bowl team, I have them projected for 7.6 wins. New Mexico required a shootout to beat an awful New Mexico State team at home last week and won't be favored in another game all year. I think this line should be Liberty by 2 touchdowns, not 1.
Liberty -7 -116 (4 units)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech started the year with two wins over truly pitiful teams, and then laid an egg against Arizona two weeks ago. However, I still think they're a team that could make a bowl this year and are a tier above Kansas and West Virginia at the bottom of the Big 12. I remain lower on Oklahoma than most- I only give them a 35% chance to win the conference- and think this line should be below 20.
Texas Tech +27 -100 (3 units)
Rutgers @ Michigan
It hasn't been a great start to the year for Rutgers, even by their standards. They trailed UMass early before pulling away and then got blanked by Iowa and demolished by BC. However, my ratings think that Michigan doesn't have the offense to beat much of anyone by 28 points. The Scarlet Knights are a bit improved over past years and shouldn't be getting 4 touchdowns here.
Rutgers +28 -106 (3 units)
Cincinnati @ Marshall
Cincinnati was getting a lot of hype in the preseason as a potential New Year's Six team, but the wind came out of their sails quickly after a blowout loss to Ohio State. Marshall, on the other hand, is my highest rated Conference USA team by some distance. I think that Cincinnati is largely favored off of name recognition here, I think this line should be around Marshall -3.
Marshall +3.5 -102 (2 units)
Buffalo @ Miami (OH)
Miami got absolutely embarrassed by Ohio State last week, and is now looking like one of the worst teams in the MAC. Buffalo rebounded with a loss to Liberty by hammering a decent Temple team last week and is looking like one of the leading contenders in the conference- I have this line closer to double digits than 3.
Buffalo -3 -104 (2 units)
Kansas @ TCU
Kansas disappointed last week against West Virginia, failing to cover by half a point. I'm back on the Jayhawks this week though, as they travel to a TCU team that is still trying to figure things out at quarterback. I think that Kansas should only be a single digit underdog here.
Kansas +16 -115 (1 unit)
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
Central Michigan has responded well to a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin, demolishing Akron and then hanging in until the last possession against Miami last week. I no longer think they're one of the worst teams in the MAC, they have a decent shot at a bowl this year and shouldn't be double digit dogs against an OK WMU team.
Central Michigan +17 -108 (1 unit)
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