Post-Week 4 College Football Top 25
There were more matchups of ranked teams in week 4, but still not a ton of movement in the top 25 as most of the main playoff contenders remain unblemished. This week is shaping up to be another slow one before an action packed week 6 awaits as October looms. Numbers in parenthesis next to each team indicates their ranking last week and their probability of winning out until the conference championship game.
1. Clemson (1, 86.2%)
2. Alabama (2, 35.4%)
3. Ohio State (4, 27.0%)
4. Georgia (3, 11.8%)
5. LSU (5, 2.3%)
Clemson remains in a tier of their own, with Alabama in tier 1b behind them. However, the rest of the top 5 is catching up with the Tide. Ohio State and LSU continue to put up ridiculous offensive numbers, and Georgia passed their first big test against Notre Dame. There's only 2 games all year where these teams are less than 6 point favorites: LSU @ Alabama and Georgia @ Auburn.
6. Wisconsin (10, 4.8%)
7. Oklahoma (7, 4.8%)
8. Auburn (11, 0.3%)
9. UCF (6, 24.8%)
10. Oregon (12, 3.7%)
Wisconsin, Oklahoma and Auburn are all legitimate contenders for the playoff but have much tougher games ahead than the top 5 teams. Wisconsin is better than 50/50 to be 8-0 when they travel to the Horseshoe on October 26th. Oklahoma, Auburn and Oregon all have schedules filled with possible landmines in the next month. UCF remains in my top ten after their narrow loss at Pitt, and is double digit favorites in every remaining game.
11. Texas (9, 1.6%)
12. Notre Dame (14, 3.3%)
13. Texas A&M (8, <0.1%)
14. Washington (16, 6.1%)
15. Florida (15, 0.5%)
Notre Dame exceeded expectations at Georgia and rises mildly in my ratings to reflect that. All of the teams in this tier are looking like long shots for the playoff at this point- Florida is the only one who can probably afford a loss, and they still have to play Auburn, Georgia and a potential SEC championship game.
16. Iowa (13, 2.0%)
17. Missouri (18, 2.9%)
18. Mississippi State (19, 0.2%)
19. Oklahoma State (17, 0.7%)
20. Michigan State (25, 0.3%)
I think Iowa is the most under-discussed team in the country right now. They've already got a good win at Iowa State, and if they beat Michigan and Penn State in their next two (they're favorites in both and I give them a 35% chance of winning both), they're right in the thick of the Big Ten race. Missouri has rebounded well from their opening loss at Wyoming, and Oklahoma State may have lost at Texas but they looked like a contender for the Big 12 title game.
21. Penn State (22, 0.1%)
22. Iowa State (35, 0.2%)
23. Kansas State (24, 0.1%)
24. Appalachian State (21, 8.9%)
25. Utah (23, 1.0%)
Appalachian State got their big win at North Carolina last weekend, and remains probably the #2 contender behind Boise State for the Group of Five bid to the Cotton Bowl. Most of the rest of the teams in this tier are capable of winning their division, but are long shots to win their conference.
Missed the Cut: USC, Michigan, Boise State, Louisiana, Maryland, Wake Forest, Utah State, Minnesota, Virginia, Kentucky
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 6.8%
Army 5.2%
Louisiana 3.2%
Marshall 2.0%
1. Clemson (1, 86.2%)
2. Alabama (2, 35.4%)
3. Ohio State (4, 27.0%)
4. Georgia (3, 11.8%)
5. LSU (5, 2.3%)
Clemson remains in a tier of their own, with Alabama in tier 1b behind them. However, the rest of the top 5 is catching up with the Tide. Ohio State and LSU continue to put up ridiculous offensive numbers, and Georgia passed their first big test against Notre Dame. There's only 2 games all year where these teams are less than 6 point favorites: LSU @ Alabama and Georgia @ Auburn.
6. Wisconsin (10, 4.8%)
7. Oklahoma (7, 4.8%)
8. Auburn (11, 0.3%)
9. UCF (6, 24.8%)
10. Oregon (12, 3.7%)
Wisconsin, Oklahoma and Auburn are all legitimate contenders for the playoff but have much tougher games ahead than the top 5 teams. Wisconsin is better than 50/50 to be 8-0 when they travel to the Horseshoe on October 26th. Oklahoma, Auburn and Oregon all have schedules filled with possible landmines in the next month. UCF remains in my top ten after their narrow loss at Pitt, and is double digit favorites in every remaining game.
11. Texas (9, 1.6%)
12. Notre Dame (14, 3.3%)
13. Texas A&M (8, <0.1%)
14. Washington (16, 6.1%)
15. Florida (15, 0.5%)
Notre Dame exceeded expectations at Georgia and rises mildly in my ratings to reflect that. All of the teams in this tier are looking like long shots for the playoff at this point- Florida is the only one who can probably afford a loss, and they still have to play Auburn, Georgia and a potential SEC championship game.
16. Iowa (13, 2.0%)
17. Missouri (18, 2.9%)
18. Mississippi State (19, 0.2%)
19. Oklahoma State (17, 0.7%)
20. Michigan State (25, 0.3%)
I think Iowa is the most under-discussed team in the country right now. They've already got a good win at Iowa State, and if they beat Michigan and Penn State in their next two (they're favorites in both and I give them a 35% chance of winning both), they're right in the thick of the Big Ten race. Missouri has rebounded well from their opening loss at Wyoming, and Oklahoma State may have lost at Texas but they looked like a contender for the Big 12 title game.
21. Penn State (22, 0.1%)
22. Iowa State (35, 0.2%)
23. Kansas State (24, 0.1%)
24. Appalachian State (21, 8.9%)
25. Utah (23, 1.0%)
Appalachian State got their big win at North Carolina last weekend, and remains probably the #2 contender behind Boise State for the Group of Five bid to the Cotton Bowl. Most of the rest of the teams in this tier are capable of winning their division, but are long shots to win their conference.
Missed the Cut: USC, Michigan, Boise State, Louisiana, Maryland, Wake Forest, Utah State, Minnesota, Virginia, Kentucky
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 6.8%
Army 5.2%
Louisiana 3.2%
Marshall 2.0%
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