Post-Week 1 College Football Top 25
At the top of college football, week 1 went largely by the books as only 2 of the teams in my preseason top 25 lost- Oregon, who lost to fellow top 25 team Auburn, and Missouri who lost a weird game on the road to Wyoming. Since most of the top teams were massive favorites in their opening games, there's not a ton to be learned from week 1 so as a result my ratings remain relatively static. As more information is learned about the top teams and we get some valuable non-conference data points in the coming weeks expect more movement in these rankings. The number in parenthesis next to each team indicates their ranking last week.
1. Clemson (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Georgia (3)
I have the same top 3 as nearly every media member does right now, although I suspect that the gaps I have between the teams are significantly larger than the average perception. My spread on a potential Clemson/Alabama game on a neutral field is Clemson -5.5, and on a Georgia/Alabama game it's Alabama -6. While I'm not explicitly pricing national title futures at this point, I suspect that Clemson is a buy at 5/2 while Alabama is a sell at 9/4.
4. LSU (5)
5. Texas (4)
6. UCF (7)
7. Ohio State (6)
8. Oklahoma (9)
LSU and Texas swap spots ahead of their big game this week, and UCF and Oklahoma make small moves up on covering my spread in week 1. All of these teams, and really every team down to #20 or so, has a legitimate shot at the playoff. I'd only favor #8 Oklahoma by 3 points over #19 Oklahoma State on a neutral field right now, they're all closely bunched together.
9. Auburn (10)
10. Texas A&M (13)
11. Washington (8)
12. Iowa (15)
13. Wisconsin (24)
14. Michigan (14)
15. Notre Dame (11)
One of the main features of a rating system like mine that depends on performance relative to expectations is that teams like Auburn, coming off of a close win over a good team, move far less than they do in the media polls. The Tigers mildly covered the spread I set against Oregon and see a small bump. The big mover in this group is Wisconsin, who drubbed USF 49-0 on the road when I only favored them by 9. Notre Dame falls slightly after a lackluster showing against Louisville as well.
16. Mississippi State (16)
17. Oregon (12)
18. Syracuse (22)
19. Oklahoma State (18)
20. Appalachian State (17)
21. Florida (19)
22. Michigan State (21)
23. Utah (27)
24. Penn State (29)
25. Missouri (20)
Utah and Penn State are the only 2 new teams in my top 25 this week, as they easily covered against BYU and Idaho, respectively. Other than Oregon and Missouri, the rest of the teams in this group performed more or less as expected against inferior competition. Missouri manages to stay in the poll, thanks in part to my system not being as harsh about the Wyoming loss due to their home-field advantage from altitude.
Missed the Cut: Virginia, Washington State, Boise State, Minnesota, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Stanford, Boston College, USC
1. Clemson (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Georgia (3)
I have the same top 3 as nearly every media member does right now, although I suspect that the gaps I have between the teams are significantly larger than the average perception. My spread on a potential Clemson/Alabama game on a neutral field is Clemson -5.5, and on a Georgia/Alabama game it's Alabama -6. While I'm not explicitly pricing national title futures at this point, I suspect that Clemson is a buy at 5/2 while Alabama is a sell at 9/4.
4. LSU (5)
5. Texas (4)
6. UCF (7)
7. Ohio State (6)
8. Oklahoma (9)
LSU and Texas swap spots ahead of their big game this week, and UCF and Oklahoma make small moves up on covering my spread in week 1. All of these teams, and really every team down to #20 or so, has a legitimate shot at the playoff. I'd only favor #8 Oklahoma by 3 points over #19 Oklahoma State on a neutral field right now, they're all closely bunched together.
9. Auburn (10)
10. Texas A&M (13)
11. Washington (8)
12. Iowa (15)
13. Wisconsin (24)
14. Michigan (14)
15. Notre Dame (11)
One of the main features of a rating system like mine that depends on performance relative to expectations is that teams like Auburn, coming off of a close win over a good team, move far less than they do in the media polls. The Tigers mildly covered the spread I set against Oregon and see a small bump. The big mover in this group is Wisconsin, who drubbed USF 49-0 on the road when I only favored them by 9. Notre Dame falls slightly after a lackluster showing against Louisville as well.
16. Mississippi State (16)
17. Oregon (12)
18. Syracuse (22)
19. Oklahoma State (18)
20. Appalachian State (17)
21. Florida (19)
22. Michigan State (21)
23. Utah (27)
24. Penn State (29)
25. Missouri (20)
Utah and Penn State are the only 2 new teams in my top 25 this week, as they easily covered against BYU and Idaho, respectively. Other than Oregon and Missouri, the rest of the teams in this group performed more or less as expected against inferior competition. Missouri manages to stay in the poll, thanks in part to my system not being as harsh about the Wyoming loss due to their home-field advantage from altitude.
Missed the Cut: Virginia, Washington State, Boise State, Minnesota, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Stanford, Boston College, USC
Comments
Post a Comment