Post-Week 3 College Football Top 25
Week 3 was a bit quieter than week 2, with most of the interesting games being a series of mishaps as opposed to the good matchups we saw earlier in the season. The good news is that conference play really kicks off in many leagues this week, giving us more competitive games this Saturday than we've had any week so far. Numbers in parenthesis next to each team indicates their rating last week.
1. Clemson (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Ohio State (5)
5. LSU (4)
Clemson breezed past one of their tougher games at Syracuse, and the gap between them and the rest of the ACC is historic. Their toughest remaining games are Wake Forest and South Carolina in November, and I have them as 27 point favorites in each. Georgia gets their big test at home against Notre Dame this week, I give them a 77% chance to win which is a bit under the 84% being implied by the market.
6. UCF (6)
7. Oklahoma (9)
8. Texas A&M (10)
9. Texas (11)
10. Wisconsin (8)
There's been a decent amount of chatter in the media about a clear top tier of 6 teams, but I'm not so sure about that. There are two main gaps in my mind: one between Clemson and Alabama, and one between Alabama and everyone else. The rest of the top 10 are beatable by the lower tier top 25 teams on a bad day, Clemson and Alabama not so much. All the teams in this tier are unlikely to make the playoff, but certainly contenders if things break their direction.
11. Auburn (12)
12. Oregon (7)
13. Iowa (13)
14. Notre Dame (15)
15. Florida (18)
It goes to show how tightly packed the rankings are outside the top few that Oregon fell 5 spots just for beating Montana 35-3. Iowa performed almost exactly as expected against Iowa State, and is a real dark horse playoff contender with every game on the schedule being winnable. They'll get their first big test on October 5th at Michigan. Florida scraped by Kentucky, and due to the weakness of the SEC east has a good chance to win 10 games despite being not that good.
16. Washington (23)
17. Oklahoma State (17)
18. Missouri (21)
19. Mississippi State (14)
20. Michigan (19)
I'm in line with many other predictive rating systems by having Washington in the top 25 still, and quite safely in it at that. Oklahoma State is a team that is going to sneak up on a lot of people this year- they're part of a very solid second tier in the Big 12 that is absolutely capable of beating Oklahoma or Texas on their day, and the Cowboys get a shot at the Longhorns on Saturday.
21. Appalachian State (24)
22. Penn State (20)
23. Utah (22)
24. Kansas State (33)
25. Michigan State (16)
A lot of people seem to have forgotten about Appalachian State, as they got a decent amount of hype in the offseason thanks to their 10 win season last year. They have their first big test at UNC this week. Elsewhere, I'm not buying Utah as the top 10 team the polls are, and neither are most other metrics. Kansas State makes their first appearance in my top 25 this season after a big road win against Mississippi State.
Missed the Cut: Washington State, USC, Boise State, Maryland, TCU, Kentucky, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Iowa State
1. Clemson (1)
2. Alabama (2)
3. Georgia (3)
4. Ohio State (5)
5. LSU (4)
Clemson breezed past one of their tougher games at Syracuse, and the gap between them and the rest of the ACC is historic. Their toughest remaining games are Wake Forest and South Carolina in November, and I have them as 27 point favorites in each. Georgia gets their big test at home against Notre Dame this week, I give them a 77% chance to win which is a bit under the 84% being implied by the market.
6. UCF (6)
7. Oklahoma (9)
8. Texas A&M (10)
9. Texas (11)
10. Wisconsin (8)
There's been a decent amount of chatter in the media about a clear top tier of 6 teams, but I'm not so sure about that. There are two main gaps in my mind: one between Clemson and Alabama, and one between Alabama and everyone else. The rest of the top 10 are beatable by the lower tier top 25 teams on a bad day, Clemson and Alabama not so much. All the teams in this tier are unlikely to make the playoff, but certainly contenders if things break their direction.
11. Auburn (12)
12. Oregon (7)
13. Iowa (13)
14. Notre Dame (15)
15. Florida (18)
It goes to show how tightly packed the rankings are outside the top few that Oregon fell 5 spots just for beating Montana 35-3. Iowa performed almost exactly as expected against Iowa State, and is a real dark horse playoff contender with every game on the schedule being winnable. They'll get their first big test on October 5th at Michigan. Florida scraped by Kentucky, and due to the weakness of the SEC east has a good chance to win 10 games despite being not that good.
16. Washington (23)
17. Oklahoma State (17)
18. Missouri (21)
19. Mississippi State (14)
20. Michigan (19)
I'm in line with many other predictive rating systems by having Washington in the top 25 still, and quite safely in it at that. Oklahoma State is a team that is going to sneak up on a lot of people this year- they're part of a very solid second tier in the Big 12 that is absolutely capable of beating Oklahoma or Texas on their day, and the Cowboys get a shot at the Longhorns on Saturday.
21. Appalachian State (24)
22. Penn State (20)
23. Utah (22)
24. Kansas State (33)
25. Michigan State (16)
A lot of people seem to have forgotten about Appalachian State, as they got a decent amount of hype in the offseason thanks to their 10 win season last year. They have their first big test at UNC this week. Elsewhere, I'm not buying Utah as the top 10 team the polls are, and neither are most other metrics. Kansas State makes their first appearance in my top 25 this season after a big road win against Mississippi State.
Missed the Cut: Washington State, USC, Boise State, Maryland, TCU, Kentucky, Virginia, Wake Forest, Miami (FL), Iowa State
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