College Football Week 4 Picks
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Season total: 13-11-1 +15.50 units
Last week was pretty run of the mill, Wake Forest was the only one of my picks that was close. All of my other picks either easily covered or didn't come close to covering.
Cal @ Ole Miss
Ole Miss is one of the worst teams in the Power Five, and it really surprises me to see them as favorites against Cal. While they were able to beat Arkansas two weeks ago, they were in a tight game with Southeast Louisiana last week and there are maybe 5 or 6 power conference teams I'd take Ole Miss over. Cal, while not a top 25 team like the polls suggest, is solid and has a phenomenal defense and should take care of business.
Cal +2.5 -102 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ North Carolina
Appalachian State was in my preseason top 25, as they return almost 90% of their offensive production from a team that went 11-2 last year. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Mountaineers as they've played two easy games to start the year, but they're one of the best teams in the Group of Five. UNC, on the other hand, has drawn a lot of hype and is certainly improved from last year, but should not be favored over this App State team.
Appalachian State +3 -113 (3 units)
San Jose State @ Arkansas
I've been on the San Jose State train all year, as I bet them against Tulsa a few weeks ago and was on over 2.5 wins in the preseason. I mentioned earlier that Ole Miss is one of the worst teams in the Power Five, but Arkansas is even worse. They barely scraped by Portland State in week 1, and shouldn't be 21 point favorites against any FBS team.
San Jose State +21 -104 (3 units)
ULM @ Iowa State
Like San Jose State, I've been on ULM all year as I picked them against Florida State two weeks ago and picked their team total over in the preseason. Iowa State is a solid team that got pretty unlucky to lose against Iowa last week, but this line is being priced like ULM is a run of the mill Sun Belt team, which they're not.
ULM +19 -112 (2 units)
Ball State @ NC State
Ball State is off to a 1-2 start, but played Indiana and FAU pretty close in their losses. NC State is part of a large middle of ACC teams that could go anywhere between 4-8 and 8-4. There's no reason for them to be a 3 touchdown favorite over an OK MAC team like Ball State.
Ball State +20.5 -115 (2 units)
Toledo @ Colorado State
Colorado State is one of the worst teams in FBS, getting blown off the field by Colorado and Arkansas in recent weeks. Toledo is one of the main contenders to win the MAC this year, and I have them as closer to 20 point favorites than 10 in this game.
Toledo -9 -114 (2 units)
Southern Miss @ Alabama
Alabama looked more mortal than usual last week against South Carolina, and while they're still clearly the #2 team in the country, they're not the dominant force they were at times last year. Southern Miss, on the other hand, is arguably the best team in Conference USA. This line should be around 4 touchdowns, not 5.5.
Southern Miss +39 -109 (1 unit)
West Virginia @ Kansas
I've been higher than the consensus on Kansas all year, and they got a big breakthrough win last week at Boston College. West Virginia, on the other hand, rebounded from a loss to Missouri with a big win against NC State last week. However, I really don't think there's that much of a difference between these teams anymore, as Kansas finally has the talent on their roster to compete with the bottom of the Big 12.
Kansas +4.5 -107 (1 unit)
Nevada @ UTEP
It's been a bit of a slide for Nevada since their season opening win against Purdue, as they got destroyed by Oregon and then barely scraped past Weber State. UTEP is one of the worst teams in FBS, but as a home team against a shaky G5 team should be less than a 2 touchdown underdog.
UTEP +14.5 -112 (1 unit)
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Season total: 13-11-1 +15.50 units
Last week was pretty run of the mill, Wake Forest was the only one of my picks that was close. All of my other picks either easily covered or didn't come close to covering.
Cal @ Ole Miss
Ole Miss is one of the worst teams in the Power Five, and it really surprises me to see them as favorites against Cal. While they were able to beat Arkansas two weeks ago, they were in a tight game with Southeast Louisiana last week and there are maybe 5 or 6 power conference teams I'd take Ole Miss over. Cal, while not a top 25 team like the polls suggest, is solid and has a phenomenal defense and should take care of business.
Cal +2.5 -102 (3 units)
Appalachian State @ North Carolina
Appalachian State was in my preseason top 25, as they return almost 90% of their offensive production from a team that went 11-2 last year. Everyone seems to have forgotten about the Mountaineers as they've played two easy games to start the year, but they're one of the best teams in the Group of Five. UNC, on the other hand, has drawn a lot of hype and is certainly improved from last year, but should not be favored over this App State team.
Appalachian State +3 -113 (3 units)
San Jose State @ Arkansas
I've been on the San Jose State train all year, as I bet them against Tulsa a few weeks ago and was on over 2.5 wins in the preseason. I mentioned earlier that Ole Miss is one of the worst teams in the Power Five, but Arkansas is even worse. They barely scraped by Portland State in week 1, and shouldn't be 21 point favorites against any FBS team.
San Jose State +21 -104 (3 units)
ULM @ Iowa State
Like San Jose State, I've been on ULM all year as I picked them against Florida State two weeks ago and picked their team total over in the preseason. Iowa State is a solid team that got pretty unlucky to lose against Iowa last week, but this line is being priced like ULM is a run of the mill Sun Belt team, which they're not.
ULM +19 -112 (2 units)
Ball State @ NC State
Ball State is off to a 1-2 start, but played Indiana and FAU pretty close in their losses. NC State is part of a large middle of ACC teams that could go anywhere between 4-8 and 8-4. There's no reason for them to be a 3 touchdown favorite over an OK MAC team like Ball State.
Ball State +20.5 -115 (2 units)
Toledo @ Colorado State
Colorado State is one of the worst teams in FBS, getting blown off the field by Colorado and Arkansas in recent weeks. Toledo is one of the main contenders to win the MAC this year, and I have them as closer to 20 point favorites than 10 in this game.
Toledo -9 -114 (2 units)
Southern Miss @ Alabama
Alabama looked more mortal than usual last week against South Carolina, and while they're still clearly the #2 team in the country, they're not the dominant force they were at times last year. Southern Miss, on the other hand, is arguably the best team in Conference USA. This line should be around 4 touchdowns, not 5.5.
Southern Miss +39 -109 (1 unit)
West Virginia @ Kansas
I've been higher than the consensus on Kansas all year, and they got a big breakthrough win last week at Boston College. West Virginia, on the other hand, rebounded from a loss to Missouri with a big win against NC State last week. However, I really don't think there's that much of a difference between these teams anymore, as Kansas finally has the talent on their roster to compete with the bottom of the Big 12.
Kansas +4.5 -107 (1 unit)
Nevada @ UTEP
It's been a bit of a slide for Nevada since their season opening win against Purdue, as they got destroyed by Oregon and then barely scraped past Weber State. UTEP is one of the worst teams in FBS, but as a home team against a shaky G5 team should be less than a 2 touchdown underdog.
UTEP +14.5 -112 (1 unit)
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