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This week, it was Oklahoma who was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten when they fell at Kansas State on Saturday. This put a significant dent in the Big 12's playoff chances, which really opens up possibilities for the Pac-12, and for the Big Ten or SEC to put 2 teams into the playoff. Numbers in parenthesis are a team's ranking last week and their probability of winning out to the conference championship game. 1. Clemson (1, 97.3%) 2. Ohio State (2, 65.0%) 3. Alabama (3, 41.3%) 4. LSU (4, 22.9%) 5. Auburn (6, 22.8%) The top 4 remain in the same order as last week. I've set Alabama as a 6.5 point favorite against LSU, compared to the consensus line of 8. The winner of that game will all but sew up the SEC West. However, there's a 3rd SEC West team in the top 5 as Auburn moves up to #5, thanks to beating the spread against LSU and Oklahoma's loss. However, Auburn remains a long ways behind the top 4 teams. 6. Georgia (7, 13.4%) 7. Penn State (9, 9.7%) ...

Preseason Win Totals: 1-0 +3.33 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Season Total: 26-29-2 +8.03 units Preseason Review Since a good chunk of the units I've bet this year came in the preseason, I figured that it might be a good exercise to take a look at my biggest preseason win total picks and see how they're doing. To avoid using my model to rate my model's picks, all of the probabilities in this section come from Bill Connelly's highly respected S&P+ ratings. Florida State Under 7.5 +110 (12 units): The 'Noles are 3-4 and would have to win out to go over 7.5 wins. There's a 1.2% chance of this happening, as they're underdogs in 3 games including a trip to Florida, so this bet looks very likely to hit. ULM Over 5 -130 (10 units): The Warhawks have won their 3 easy games an...

For the second week in a row, we saw a legitimate playoff contender go down as Wisconsin lost to Illinois as a -10000 moneyline favorite. The playoff picture will crystallize a bit more in the coming weeks as all of the top teams will actually start to play each other. Numbers in parenthesis are a team's ranking last week and their probability of winning out to the conference championship game. 1. Clemson (1, 79.4%) 2. Ohio State (3, 46.4%) 3. Alabama (2, 31.4%) 4. LSU (4, 8.0%) 5. Oklahoma (5, 16.6%) For the first time all year, I don't have Clemson #1 and Alabama #2 as Ohio State leapfrogs the Tide after scoring 52 points on a stout Northwestern defense. I have the Buckeyes as a 12 point favorite this week against Wisconsin, a 12 point favorite against Penn State and a 13 point favorite against Michigan. In the SEC, LSU is catching up to Alabama- assuming Tua is healthy, I have Alabama as a 6 point favorite against the Tigers on November 9th. 6. Auburn (8, 0.9%) 7....

It's been a few weeks since I updated my conference and division win probabilities, so I figured it was time to run the simulator again and see what's changed. Some division races have essentially been sown up already, while others remain wide open. For all teams, the first number reported is their probability to make the conference championship game, while the second is their probability to win it. SEC West Alabama: 60%, 40% LSU: 35%, 25% Auburn: 5%, 3% Texas A&M: <1%, <1% Mississippi State: <1%, <1% Ole Miss: <1%, <1% Arkansas: <1%, <1% Unsurprisingly, the division is likely to come down to the November 9th clash in Tuscaloosa between Alabama and LSU. Both teams have cleared all of their major obstacles aside from each other and Auburn, so there's around a 90% chance that the winner of that game goes to Atlanta. Auburn is still hanging around though- they control their own destiny although have to play Georgia still as well....

Preseason Win Totals: 1-0 +3.33 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Season Total: 24-28-2 +7.22 units Last week was another poor one- Syracuse put up a pitiful performance on Thursday night, Wake Forest lost a shootout to Louisville and San Jose State failed to cover by half a point. UCLA @ Stanford UCLA's season has been off to a horrible start- their only win is at Washington State in one of the wildest games of the season and they got whipped at home by bottom feeder Oregon State in their last game. Stanford is starting third string QB Jack West, but even with that into account they should be much larger favorites here. Stanford -3 -111 (2 units) NC State @ Boston College I bet against NC State last weekend, and have been low on them all season. That ugly game against Syracuse was their best win of the season- there...

The action picked up a bit in week 7, most notably in Athens as Georgia became the first serious playoff contender to take a loss. Oklahoma and LSU got nice wins to solidify their playoff contention, and Penn State cemented their spot in the top 10. 1. Clemson (1, 74.8%) 2. Alabama (2, 34.8%) 3. Ohio State (3, 34.2%) 4. LSU (5, 5.9%) 5. Oklahoma (6, 13.2%) The biggest news in this tier is the consistent rise of LSU. The Tigers looked like a distant 3rd in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia in the preseason, but they're now a legitimate title contender. All eyes turn towards their November 9th clash with Alabama in Tuscaloosa, where I favor the Tide by 7.5. 6. Wisconsin (8, 7.3%) 7. Georgia (4, 6.5%) 8. Auburn (7, 0.5%) 9. Penn State (9, 2.6%) 10. Oregon (14, 4.6%) Georgia's loss to South Carolina torpedoes their playoff hopes, as I give them less than a 10% chance of even making it to the SEC championship game undefeated. They're favorites in every remaining...

Week 6 was yet another slow week, as this season is taking a particularly long time to really get going. However, week 7's slate looks like by far the best of the year so far, so we should ideally be in for more shakeups in these rankings soon. 1. Clemson (1, 75.7%) 2. Alabama (2, 33.1%) 3. Ohio State (3, 34.8%) 4. Georgia (4, 12.2%) 5. LSU (5, 4.2%) The top 5 remain intact in the same order, although Ohio State continues to move up. They're now only a fraction of a point behind Alabama, and would be around field goal underdogs against Clemson. We've gone from a top tier of 2 in the preseason to a top tier of 3 with the addition of the Buckeyes. 6. Oklahoma (7, 10.8%) 7. Auburn (6, 0.4%) 8. Wisconsin (9, 3.9%) 9. Penn State (8, 1.8%) 10. Florida (16, 1.0%) Auburn is the lone team with a loss in the top 10, although they only fell one spot for their loss to Florida. Speaking of the Gators, they now move into my top 10 for the first time all year, although I o...

Preseason Win Totals: 1-0 +3.33 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Season Total: 21-24-2 +9.17 units I won my biggest pick last week on Boston College, but split my 6 picks overall to finish essentially flat on the week. I cashed my first preseason win total pick, as San Jose State won their 3rd game of the year, so my 6 unit pick on San Jose State over 2.5 wins in the preseason is now locked in. Syracuse @ NC State I've faded NC State multiple times this season and that continues here. Even in a very weak ACC, I struggle to see a path to bowl eligibility for the Wolfpack. They got rolled by a mediocre Florida State team in their last game, and struggled against Ball State before that. Syracuse fell off the radar after their losses to Maryland and Clemson, but they have 2 wins better than NC State's best win. Syracuse +4.5 -109 (3 units) Loui...

Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Season Total: 18-21-2 +8.65 units Last week was by far my worst of the year, pretty much everything went against me. Much closer to flat for the year now, although the win total picks I made in the preseason comprise a major chunk of my bankroll and are looking quite good right now. Boston College @ Louisville Boston College has had a weird start to the year, beating Virginia Tech but losing to Kansas. I still think that they have a decent shot at a bowl, given the wide open state of the middle of the ACC. Louisville lost to a mediocre Florida State team last week and I still think they're one of the worst teams in the conference. I have BC as a mild favorite here. Boston College +5 -103 (3 units) Troy @ Missouri For most of my picks, I can get a sense that it might be a game I like before even seeing the line- but this ...

Week 5 was the quietest week of the season so far. Clemson/UNC brought some excitement in the late afternoon window, but overall there were few major shakeups which leads to a relatively stable top 25. Numbers in parenthesis next to each team indicates their ranking last week and their probability of winning out until their conference championship game. 1. Clemson (1, 75.9%) 2. Alabama (2, 30.8%) 3. Ohio State (3, 33.2%) 4. Georgia (4, 10.2%) 5. LSU (5, 2.7%) Clemson's rating took a substantial hit after their escape against North Carolina, but their lead over the rest of the pack was big enough that they remain #1 despite the drop. However, the gap between the Tigers and the rest of the top 5 is rapidly shrinking. Ohio State has put some distance between themselves and the teams below them and is catching up to Alabama. 6. Auburn (8, 1.5%) 7. Oklahoma (7, 8.7%) 8. Penn State (21, 1.7%) 9. Wisconsin (6, 3.0%) 10. UCF (9, 18.5%) Auburn is looking more and more like a ...