Post-Week 5 College Football Top 25
Week 5 was the quietest week of the season so far. Clemson/UNC brought some excitement in the late afternoon window, but overall there were few major shakeups which leads to a relatively stable top 25. Numbers in parenthesis next to each team indicates their ranking last week and their probability of winning out until their conference championship game.
1. Clemson (1, 75.9%)
2. Alabama (2, 30.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 33.2%)
4. Georgia (4, 10.2%)
5. LSU (5, 2.7%)
Clemson's rating took a substantial hit after their escape against North Carolina, but their lead over the rest of the pack was big enough that they remain #1 despite the drop. However, the gap between the Tigers and the rest of the top 5 is rapidly shrinking. Ohio State has put some distance between themselves and the teams below them and is catching up to Alabama.
6. Auburn (8, 1.5%)
7. Oklahoma (7, 8.7%)
8. Penn State (21, 1.7%)
9. Wisconsin (6, 3.0%)
10. UCF (9, 18.5%)
Auburn is looking more and more like a legitimate contender, as they trounced a solid Mississippi State team and their undefeated probability is now over a percent. However, they still have to play 3 of the top 5. Penn State moves up significantly as well after blowing out Maryland on the road.
11. Oregon (10, 3.2%)
12. Texas (11, 1.4%)
13. Notre Dame (12, 3.3%)
14. Washington (14, 8.2%)
15. Iowa (16, 2.7%)
Oregon and Washington both keep on winning ahead of their showdown in Seattle in a few weeks. Most of the Pac-12's playoff odds lie in one of those two teams running the table, which does not look particularly likely. Iowa is an underdog at Michigan this week and could be favored in every other game except Wisconsin.
16. Florida (15, 0.3%)
17. Oklahoma State (19, 1.2%)
18. Missouri (17, 2.8%)
19. Texas A&M (13, <0.1%)
20. Utah (25, 2.7%)
This section is heavy on SEC teams, although Florida is far above Missouri and A&M in the polls I don't view them as any better. Mizzou has really flown under the radar since their season opening loss at Wyoming but has rolled off a few wins in a row. Utah moves up as well after a nice win over Washington State.
21. Michigan (27, <0.1%)
22. Michigan State (20, 0.2%)
23. Appalachian State (24, 6.5%)
24. Iowa State (22, 0.1%)
25. Mississippi State (18, <0.1%)
Appalachian State remains my highest rated undefeated G5 team, and has a decent shot at the Cotton Bowl. Michigan and Michigan State have games this weekend that could be must-wins if they want to challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten East.
Missed the Cut: Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana, Boise State, USC, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Minnesota, Duke
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 7.7%
Louisiana 4.9%
Army 3.3%
SMU 0.6%
Memphis 0.6%
Minnesota 0.1%
Wake Forest 0.1%
Baylor <0.1%
1. Clemson (1, 75.9%)
2. Alabama (2, 30.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 33.2%)
4. Georgia (4, 10.2%)
5. LSU (5, 2.7%)
Clemson's rating took a substantial hit after their escape against North Carolina, but their lead over the rest of the pack was big enough that they remain #1 despite the drop. However, the gap between the Tigers and the rest of the top 5 is rapidly shrinking. Ohio State has put some distance between themselves and the teams below them and is catching up to Alabama.
6. Auburn (8, 1.5%)
7. Oklahoma (7, 8.7%)
8. Penn State (21, 1.7%)
9. Wisconsin (6, 3.0%)
10. UCF (9, 18.5%)
Auburn is looking more and more like a legitimate contender, as they trounced a solid Mississippi State team and their undefeated probability is now over a percent. However, they still have to play 3 of the top 5. Penn State moves up significantly as well after blowing out Maryland on the road.
11. Oregon (10, 3.2%)
12. Texas (11, 1.4%)
13. Notre Dame (12, 3.3%)
14. Washington (14, 8.2%)
15. Iowa (16, 2.7%)
Oregon and Washington both keep on winning ahead of their showdown in Seattle in a few weeks. Most of the Pac-12's playoff odds lie in one of those two teams running the table, which does not look particularly likely. Iowa is an underdog at Michigan this week and could be favored in every other game except Wisconsin.
16. Florida (15, 0.3%)
17. Oklahoma State (19, 1.2%)
18. Missouri (17, 2.8%)
19. Texas A&M (13, <0.1%)
20. Utah (25, 2.7%)
This section is heavy on SEC teams, although Florida is far above Missouri and A&M in the polls I don't view them as any better. Mizzou has really flown under the radar since their season opening loss at Wyoming but has rolled off a few wins in a row. Utah moves up as well after a nice win over Washington State.
21. Michigan (27, <0.1%)
22. Michigan State (20, 0.2%)
23. Appalachian State (24, 6.5%)
24. Iowa State (22, 0.1%)
25. Mississippi State (18, <0.1%)
Appalachian State remains my highest rated undefeated G5 team, and has a decent shot at the Cotton Bowl. Michigan and Michigan State have games this weekend that could be must-wins if they want to challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten East.
Missed the Cut: Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana, Boise State, USC, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Minnesota, Duke
Other notable win out probabilities:
Boise State 7.7%
Louisiana 4.9%
Army 3.3%
SMU 0.6%
Memphis 0.6%
Minnesota 0.1%
Wake Forest 0.1%
Baylor <0.1%
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