Post-Week 7 College Football Top 25
The action picked up a bit in week 7, most notably in Athens as Georgia became the first serious playoff contender to take a loss. Oklahoma and LSU got nice wins to solidify their playoff contention, and Penn State cemented their spot in the top 10.
1. Clemson (1, 74.8%)
2. Alabama (2, 34.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.2%)
4. LSU (5, 5.9%)
5. Oklahoma (6, 13.2%)
The biggest news in this tier is the consistent rise of LSU. The Tigers looked like a distant 3rd in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia in the preseason, but they're now a legitimate title contender. All eyes turn towards their November 9th clash with Alabama in Tuscaloosa, where I favor the Tide by 7.5.
6. Wisconsin (8, 7.3%)
7. Georgia (4, 6.5%)
8. Auburn (7, 0.5%)
9. Penn State (9, 2.6%)
10. Oregon (14, 4.6%)
Georgia's loss to South Carolina torpedoes their playoff hopes, as I give them less than a 10% chance of even making it to the SEC championship game undefeated. They're favorites in every remaining game, but only single digit favorites against Florida, Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M. Even getting into the playoff as an 11-2 SEC champion will be difficult, so their national championship odds are likely not much better than 1 or 2 percent.
11. Texas (11, 0.8%)
12. Florida (10, 0.6%)
13. Utah (21, 7.7%)
14. UCF (13, 11.1%)
15. Notre Dame (12, 2.2%)
Of the teams in this group, Utah likely has the best odds at the playoff. The Utes have acquitted themselves well since their loss to USC, knocking off Washington State and Oregon State. I have them as 2.5 point underdogs at Washington, but they're double digit favorites in every other game as they eye a Pac-12 championship game matchup with Oregon.
16. Washington (19, 5.7%)
17. Iowa State (18, 1.1%)
18. Missouri (15, 3.5%)
19. Iowa (16, 0.6%)
20. Michigan (17, 0.1%)
Despite their confounding season opening loss to Wyoming, Missouri continues to rattle off wins and is the sole team undefeated in conference play in the SEC East. The Tigers are ineligible to appear in the SEC title game, but are more likely than not to beat either Florida or Georgia.
21. Appalachian State (23, 8.9%)
22. Oklahoma State (22, 0.4%)
23. Texas A&M (20, <0.1%)
24. Cincinnati (26, 0.9%)
25. Boise State (27, 13.6%)
The race for the G5 New Year's Six bid is likely to come down to Appalachian State and Boise State. The only other undefeated G5 team is SMU, who I rate lower and faces a much tougher schedule than the Mountaineers and Broncos. App State's toughest game remaining is their trip to newly revitalized South Carolina, while Boise must navigate two trips to Utah to face BYU and Utah State.
Missed the Cut: USC, Minnesota, South Carolina, North Carolina, Baylor, Louisiana, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Stanford, Texas Tech
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 4.1%
San Diego State 0.8%
Memphis 0.8%
Minnesota 0.5%
SMU 0.4%
Baylor 0.1%
1. Clemson (1, 74.8%)
2. Alabama (2, 34.8%)
3. Ohio State (3, 34.2%)
4. LSU (5, 5.9%)
5. Oklahoma (6, 13.2%)
The biggest news in this tier is the consistent rise of LSU. The Tigers looked like a distant 3rd in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia in the preseason, but they're now a legitimate title contender. All eyes turn towards their November 9th clash with Alabama in Tuscaloosa, where I favor the Tide by 7.5.
6. Wisconsin (8, 7.3%)
7. Georgia (4, 6.5%)
8. Auburn (7, 0.5%)
9. Penn State (9, 2.6%)
10. Oregon (14, 4.6%)
Georgia's loss to South Carolina torpedoes their playoff hopes, as I give them less than a 10% chance of even making it to the SEC championship game undefeated. They're favorites in every remaining game, but only single digit favorites against Florida, Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M. Even getting into the playoff as an 11-2 SEC champion will be difficult, so their national championship odds are likely not much better than 1 or 2 percent.
11. Texas (11, 0.8%)
12. Florida (10, 0.6%)
13. Utah (21, 7.7%)
14. UCF (13, 11.1%)
15. Notre Dame (12, 2.2%)
Of the teams in this group, Utah likely has the best odds at the playoff. The Utes have acquitted themselves well since their loss to USC, knocking off Washington State and Oregon State. I have them as 2.5 point underdogs at Washington, but they're double digit favorites in every other game as they eye a Pac-12 championship game matchup with Oregon.
16. Washington (19, 5.7%)
17. Iowa State (18, 1.1%)
18. Missouri (15, 3.5%)
19. Iowa (16, 0.6%)
20. Michigan (17, 0.1%)
Despite their confounding season opening loss to Wyoming, Missouri continues to rattle off wins and is the sole team undefeated in conference play in the SEC East. The Tigers are ineligible to appear in the SEC title game, but are more likely than not to beat either Florida or Georgia.
21. Appalachian State (23, 8.9%)
22. Oklahoma State (22, 0.4%)
23. Texas A&M (20, <0.1%)
24. Cincinnati (26, 0.9%)
25. Boise State (27, 13.6%)
The race for the G5 New Year's Six bid is likely to come down to Appalachian State and Boise State. The only other undefeated G5 team is SMU, who I rate lower and faces a much tougher schedule than the Mountaineers and Broncos. App State's toughest game remaining is their trip to newly revitalized South Carolina, while Boise must navigate two trips to Utah to face BYU and Utah State.
Missed the Cut: USC, Minnesota, South Carolina, North Carolina, Baylor, Louisiana, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Stanford, Texas Tech
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 4.1%
San Diego State 0.8%
Memphis 0.8%
Minnesota 0.5%
SMU 0.4%
Baylor 0.1%
Comments
Post a Comment