Pre-Week 9 Championship and Division Odds

It's been a few weeks since I updated my conference and division win probabilities, so I figured it was time to run the simulator again and see what's changed. Some division races have essentially been sown up already, while others remain wide open. For all teams, the first number reported is their probability to make the conference championship game, while the second is their probability to win it.

SEC West

Alabama: 60%, 40%

LSU: 35%, 25%

Auburn: 5%, 3%

Texas A&M: <1%, <1%

Mississippi State: <1%, <1%

Ole Miss: <1%, <1%

Arkansas: <1%, <1%

Unsurprisingly, the division is likely to come down to the November 9th clash in Tuscaloosa between Alabama and LSU. Both teams have cleared all of their major obstacles aside from each other and Auburn, so there's around a 90% chance that the winner of that game goes to Atlanta. Auburn is still hanging around though- they control their own destiny although have to play Georgia still as well.

SEC East

Georgia: 55%, 15%

Florida: 45%, 15%

South Carolina: <1%, <1%

Kentucky: <1%, <1%

Tennessee: <1%, <1%

Vanderbilt: <1%, <1%

Missouri: Ineligible

This race would be a lot more interesting if Missouri was eligible for the division title, but I'm still working under the assumption that their ban is not going to be overturned. With Florida and Georgia both with one loss and few SEC games remaining, the Cocktail Party winner will almost surely win the division. Right now I have the Dawgs as a 2 point favorite in Jacksonville, so they're slightly more likely to go to Atlanta.

Big Ten East

Ohio State: 85%, 70%

Penn State: 15%, 8%

Michigan: 1%, <1%

Michigan State: <1%, <1%

Indiana: <1%, <1%

Maryland: <1%, <1%

Rutgers: <1%, <1%

Ohio State continues to demolish every opponent in their path, and is easily the odds on favorite to win the Big Ten now. Like the SEC divisions, this race is almost surely going to come down to the Ohio State/Penn State game in Columbus. However, Penn State still has to travel to East Lansing and Minneapolis, so there's a chance they could beat Ohio State and still fail to win the division.

Big Ten West

Wisconsin: 45%, 15%

Minnesota: 45%, 5%

Iowa: 10%, 2%

Nebraska: <1%, <1%

Purdue: <1%, <1%

Illinois: <1%, <1%

Northwestern: <1%, <1%

When I last updated these probabilities 4 weeks ago, this looked like a two team race between Wisconsin and Iowa. Now, it's looking like it'll come down to Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Badgers already have a loss and still travel to Ohio State, while Minnesota remains undefeated- there's a chance they could win the division even if they lose to Wisconsin. Iowa has two losses, but still gets to play their division competitors and so they're in the race.

Big 12

Oklahoma: 90%, 70%

Baylor: 60%, 17%

Iowa State: 25%, 7%

Texas: 20%, 5%

TCU: 1%, <1%

Oklahoma State: 1%, <1%

Kansas State: <1%, <1%

Texas Tech: <1%, <1%

West Virginia: <1%, <1%

Kansas: <1%, <1%

Unlike last month, Oklahoma is the odds on favorite to win the Big 12. The Sooners must travel to Waco, but have already beaten Texas and get Iowa State at home. Baylor has been the big surprise here, as they were around 1% to win the conference a few weeks ago and they already have a win over Iowa State. Iowa State and Texas are hanging around the race, but they both already have a loss to fellow contenders.

ACC Atlantic

Clemson: 98%, 97%

Wake Forest: 1%, <1%

Louisville: <1%, <1%

Florida State: <1%, <1%

Boston College: <1%, <1%

NC State: <1%, <1%

Syracuse: <1%, <1%

The Atlantic is the most boring division in all of the Power Five, as Clemson is the obvious runaway favorite to advance to the championship game. Wake Forest still controls their own destiny, as they have only one loss and still get to play Clemson. 

ACC Coastal

Virginia: 60%, 1%

Pittsburgh: 20%, 1%

North Carolina: 15%, <1%

Duke: 2%, <1%

Virginia Tech: 1%, <1%

Miami: 1%, <1%

Georgia Tech: <1%, <1%

In the last month, Virginia's odds took a dive after their loss to Miami but then bounced back after they beat Duke. Pitt is the only other team in the Coastal with one conference loss, and they're now 5-2. However, the one loss is to Virginia, so it's possible they lose to the Cavaliers on a tiebreaker. North Carolina, while they have two conference losses, controls their own destiny.

Pac-12 North

Oregon: 99%, 65%

Washington: <1%, <1%

Washington State: <1%, <1%

California: <1%, <1%

Stanford: <1%, <1%

Oregon State: <1%, <1%

Oregon's win over Washington this past Saturday means that the Ducks have essentially guaranteed themselves the division title. They're yet to lose in conference play, and Oregon State has two conference losses and everyone else has three. They still have to travel to USC, but will be significant favorites in all other remaining games.

Pac-12 South

Utah: 55%, 20%

USC: 45%, 15%

Arizona State: 1%, <1%

Arizona: <1%, <1%

Colorado: <1%, <1%

UCLA: <1%, <1%

This race is going to come down to Utah and USC. The Trojans already beat the Utes in September, but lost to Washington so both teams have 1 loss in conference. However, despite holding the tiebreaker, USC's odds are below Utah's as they face a significantly tougher schedule down the stretch including a visit from Oregon.