Post-Week 9 College Football Top 25
This week, it was Oklahoma who was knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten when they fell at Kansas State on Saturday. This put a significant dent in the Big 12's playoff chances, which really opens up possibilities for the Pac-12, and for the Big Ten or SEC to put 2 teams into the playoff. Numbers in parenthesis are a team's ranking last week and their probability of winning out to the conference championship game.
1. Clemson (1, 97.3%)
2. Ohio State (2, 65.0%)
3. Alabama (3, 41.3%)
4. LSU (4, 22.9%)
5. Auburn (6, 22.8%)
The top 4 remain in the same order as last week. I've set Alabama as a 6.5 point favorite against LSU, compared to the consensus line of 8. The winner of that game will all but sew up the SEC West. However, there's a 3rd SEC West team in the top 5 as Auburn moves up to #5, thanks to beating the spread against LSU and Oklahoma's loss. However, Auburn remains a long ways behind the top 4 teams.
6. Georgia (7, 13.4%)
7. Penn State (9, 9.7%)
8. Oklahoma (5, 26.7%)
9. Utah (12, 40.1%)
10. Michigan (18, 13.3%)
Oklahoma's first loss of the season sends them tumbling to #8. The Sooners' playoff chances took a big hit, they're roughly 1 in 4 to go 11-1 and would almost certainly have to win the Big 12 title game on top of that. Utah continues to climb with a dominating performance over Cal, and Michigan joins the top 10 for the first time all year after their win over Notre Dame.
11. Florida (11, 22.6%)
12. UCF (17, 65.1%)
13. Oregon (10, 39.7%)
14. Wisconsin (8, 25.2%)
15. Washington (16, 28.0%)
UCF turned in a fantastic performance at Temple and now has almost a 2 in 3 shot at going 10-2. Oregon survived a scare from Washington State and faces their toughest remaining regular season test at USC on Saturday. Florida plays the de facto SEC East championship game against Georgia on Saturday, I have the Gators as 3 point underdogs.
16. Appalachian State (15, 48.0%)
17. Iowa (20, 15.2%)
18. Iowa State (13, 6.9%)
19. Texas A&M (23, 3.5%)
20. Minnesota (25, 6.4%)
Appalachian State is now nearly 50/50 to go undefeated, with their toughest test by far being a trip to South Carolina in two weeks. Elsewhere, Minnesota continues to climb the ranks- I have the Gophers as 4 point underdogs to Penn State, while the consensus line opened at 6.5. Iowa State's Big 12 title hopes took a big hit with their loss to Oklahoma State.
21. Baylor (22, 6.8%)
22. Oklahoma State (30, 14.9%)
23. Texas (19, 6.3%)
24. Notre Dame (14, 23.5%)
25. USC (21, 16.7%)
Despite not playing, Baylor was the weekend's biggest winner as all of their competitors for the Big 12 title game lost. A relatively straightforward Thursday game against West Virginia is followed by a tricky trip to TCU. Speaking of the Horned Frogs, they upset Texas in a chaotic day in the Big 12 that sends the Longhorns almost out of the top 25.
Missed the Cut: Kansas State, Cincinnati, Boise State, Washington State, Air Force, Louisiana, TCU, Memphis, SMU, Missouri
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 62.0%
Air Force 52.7%
Ohio 48.6%
Boise State 41.5%
Kentucky 35.6%
Cincinnati 33.5%
SMU 14.2%
1. Clemson (1, 97.3%)
2. Ohio State (2, 65.0%)
3. Alabama (3, 41.3%)
4. LSU (4, 22.9%)
5. Auburn (6, 22.8%)
The top 4 remain in the same order as last week. I've set Alabama as a 6.5 point favorite against LSU, compared to the consensus line of 8. The winner of that game will all but sew up the SEC West. However, there's a 3rd SEC West team in the top 5 as Auburn moves up to #5, thanks to beating the spread against LSU and Oklahoma's loss. However, Auburn remains a long ways behind the top 4 teams.
6. Georgia (7, 13.4%)
7. Penn State (9, 9.7%)
8. Oklahoma (5, 26.7%)
9. Utah (12, 40.1%)
10. Michigan (18, 13.3%)
Oklahoma's first loss of the season sends them tumbling to #8. The Sooners' playoff chances took a big hit, they're roughly 1 in 4 to go 11-1 and would almost certainly have to win the Big 12 title game on top of that. Utah continues to climb with a dominating performance over Cal, and Michigan joins the top 10 for the first time all year after their win over Notre Dame.
11. Florida (11, 22.6%)
12. UCF (17, 65.1%)
13. Oregon (10, 39.7%)
14. Wisconsin (8, 25.2%)
15. Washington (16, 28.0%)
UCF turned in a fantastic performance at Temple and now has almost a 2 in 3 shot at going 10-2. Oregon survived a scare from Washington State and faces their toughest remaining regular season test at USC on Saturday. Florida plays the de facto SEC East championship game against Georgia on Saturday, I have the Gators as 3 point underdogs.
16. Appalachian State (15, 48.0%)
17. Iowa (20, 15.2%)
18. Iowa State (13, 6.9%)
19. Texas A&M (23, 3.5%)
20. Minnesota (25, 6.4%)
Appalachian State is now nearly 50/50 to go undefeated, with their toughest test by far being a trip to South Carolina in two weeks. Elsewhere, Minnesota continues to climb the ranks- I have the Gophers as 4 point underdogs to Penn State, while the consensus line opened at 6.5. Iowa State's Big 12 title hopes took a big hit with their loss to Oklahoma State.
21. Baylor (22, 6.8%)
22. Oklahoma State (30, 14.9%)
23. Texas (19, 6.3%)
24. Notre Dame (14, 23.5%)
25. USC (21, 16.7%)
Despite not playing, Baylor was the weekend's biggest winner as all of their competitors for the Big 12 title game lost. A relatively straightforward Thursday game against West Virginia is followed by a tricky trip to TCU. Speaking of the Horned Frogs, they upset Texas in a chaotic day in the Big 12 that sends the Longhorns almost out of the top 25.
Missed the Cut: Kansas State, Cincinnati, Boise State, Washington State, Air Force, Louisiana, TCU, Memphis, SMU, Missouri
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 62.0%
Air Force 52.7%
Ohio 48.6%
Boise State 41.5%
Kentucky 35.6%
Cincinnati 33.5%
SMU 14.2%
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