College Football Week 9 Picks
Preseason Win Totals: 1-0 +3.33 units
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units
Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units
Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units
Season Total: 26-29-2 +8.03 units
Florida State Under 7.5 +110 (12 units): The 'Noles are 3-4 and would have to win out to go over 7.5 wins. There's a 1.2% chance of this happening, as they're underdogs in 3 games including a trip to Florida, so this bet looks very likely to hit.
ULM Over 5 -130 (10 units): The Warhawks have won their 3 easy games and lost their 4 hard ones. They'll be heavy underdogs in the season finale against Louisiana, but the next 4 games are winnable. This bet has a 27% chance of winning, 37% chance of losing and 36% chance of pushing right now.
Purdue Under 7 -145 (8 units): The Boilermakers would have to win out just to push this bet. Their loss to Nevada sent their season spinning out of control and they're unlikely to make a bowl- this has a 99.5% chance of hitting.
Wake Forest Over 6 -130 (6 units): The Demon Deacons are already 6-1 and would have to lose out to push this bet. There's no game they'll be bigger than a 3 or so point favorite in, but they're 97% likely to win at least one of their remaining games.
San Jose State Over 2.5 -180 (6 units): This has already cashed as the Spartans are 3-4.
Mississippi Under 5 -140 (6 units): Ole Miss is 3-5 and has one easy game and one tossup left, so this will come down to the Egg Bowl in the last week of the season. There's a 39% chance of a push, a 7% chance of going over and a 54% chance of going under.
Virginia Tech Under 8 +120 (4 units): Despite the Hokies being 5-2, they're not actually that good and have scraped past weak opponents. There's a 9% chance they go over, 27% chance this pushes and a 64% it goes under.
Kansas State is off to a 4-2 start, with a hard fought win over TCU last week where I bet on the Wildcats. They're a decent team right in the middle of the pack of the Big 12, and shouldn't be 3 touchdown underdogs at home, even to this high-powered Oklahoma offense. The Sooners should be more like 14 or 17 point favorites here.
Kansas State +23.5 -105 (2 units)
Liberty @ Rutgers
I absolutely loved this line when I saw it open at Liberty -4.5, but so did everyone else as this got bet up to 7.5. Rutgers is the worst Power Five team in the country, and one of the worst of the decade. Liberty's a decent team that will cruise to a bowl this year, and should be two touchdown favorites on the road.
Liberty -7.5 -102 (2 units)
Syracuse @ Florida State
I've been betting on the ACC Atlantic a lot this year, and continue that here with a play on Syracuse. They've yet to record a victory over a Power Five team this year, but are not one of the worst teams in the P5 like they're being priced. Florida State is 3-4 and shouldn't be favored by 10 points over really any ACC teams.
Syracuse +10 -103 (2 units)
Indiana @ Nebraska
Indiana is off to a surprising 5-2 start, with a controversial loss to Michigan State and a blowout to Ohio State. I'm surprised to see them as road underdogs here- my model has them around #40 and they're actually in the top 25 of S&P+. Nebraska is going to struggle to make a bowl this year and should be a home underdog.
Indiana +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units
Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units
Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units
Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units
Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units
Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units
Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units
Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units
Season Total: 26-29-2 +8.03 units
Preseason Review
Since a good chunk of the units I've bet this year came in the preseason, I figured that it might be a good exercise to take a look at my biggest preseason win total picks and see how they're doing. To avoid using my model to rate my model's picks, all of the probabilities in this section come from Bill Connelly's highly respected S&P+ ratings.Florida State Under 7.5 +110 (12 units): The 'Noles are 3-4 and would have to win out to go over 7.5 wins. There's a 1.2% chance of this happening, as they're underdogs in 3 games including a trip to Florida, so this bet looks very likely to hit.
ULM Over 5 -130 (10 units): The Warhawks have won their 3 easy games and lost their 4 hard ones. They'll be heavy underdogs in the season finale against Louisiana, but the next 4 games are winnable. This bet has a 27% chance of winning, 37% chance of losing and 36% chance of pushing right now.
Purdue Under 7 -145 (8 units): The Boilermakers would have to win out just to push this bet. Their loss to Nevada sent their season spinning out of control and they're unlikely to make a bowl- this has a 99.5% chance of hitting.
Wake Forest Over 6 -130 (6 units): The Demon Deacons are already 6-1 and would have to lose out to push this bet. There's no game they'll be bigger than a 3 or so point favorite in, but they're 97% likely to win at least one of their remaining games.
San Jose State Over 2.5 -180 (6 units): This has already cashed as the Spartans are 3-4.
Mississippi Under 5 -140 (6 units): Ole Miss is 3-5 and has one easy game and one tossup left, so this will come down to the Egg Bowl in the last week of the season. There's a 39% chance of a push, a 7% chance of going over and a 54% chance of going under.
Virginia Tech Under 8 +120 (4 units): Despite the Hokies being 5-2, they're not actually that good and have scraped past weak opponents. There's a 9% chance they go over, 27% chance this pushes and a 64% it goes under.
Week 9 Picks
Oklahoma @ Kansas StateKansas State is off to a 4-2 start, with a hard fought win over TCU last week where I bet on the Wildcats. They're a decent team right in the middle of the pack of the Big 12, and shouldn't be 3 touchdown underdogs at home, even to this high-powered Oklahoma offense. The Sooners should be more like 14 or 17 point favorites here.
Kansas State +23.5 -105 (2 units)
Liberty @ Rutgers
I absolutely loved this line when I saw it open at Liberty -4.5, but so did everyone else as this got bet up to 7.5. Rutgers is the worst Power Five team in the country, and one of the worst of the decade. Liberty's a decent team that will cruise to a bowl this year, and should be two touchdown favorites on the road.
Liberty -7.5 -102 (2 units)
Syracuse @ Florida State
I've been betting on the ACC Atlantic a lot this year, and continue that here with a play on Syracuse. They've yet to record a victory over a Power Five team this year, but are not one of the worst teams in the P5 like they're being priced. Florida State is 3-4 and shouldn't be favored by 10 points over really any ACC teams.
Syracuse +10 -103 (2 units)
Indiana @ Nebraska
Indiana is off to a surprising 5-2 start, with a controversial loss to Michigan State and a blowout to Ohio State. I'm surprised to see them as road underdogs here- my model has them around #40 and they're actually in the top 25 of S&P+. Nebraska is going to struggle to make a bowl this year and should be a home underdog.
Indiana +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
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