Post-Week 8 College Football Top 25
For the second week in a row, we saw a legitimate playoff contender go down as Wisconsin lost to Illinois as a -10000 moneyline favorite. The playoff picture will crystallize a bit more in the coming weeks as all of the top teams will actually start to play each other. Numbers in parenthesis are a team's ranking last week and their probability of winning out to the conference championship game.
1. Clemson (1, 79.4%)
2. Ohio State (3, 46.4%)
3. Alabama (2, 31.4%)
4. LSU (4, 8.0%)
5. Oklahoma (5, 16.6%)
For the first time all year, I don't have Clemson #1 and Alabama #2 as Ohio State leapfrogs the Tide after scoring 52 points on a stout Northwestern defense. I have the Buckeyes as a 12 point favorite this week against Wisconsin, a 12 point favorite against Penn State and a 13 point favorite against Michigan. In the SEC, LSU is catching up to Alabama- assuming Tua is healthy, I have Alabama as a 6 point favorite against the Tigers on November 9th.
6. Auburn (8, 0.9%)
7. Georgia (7, 6.2%)
8. Wisconsin (6, 3.6%)
9. Penn State (9, 2.1%)
10. Oregon (10, 6.3%)
My guess is that there's probably around a 30% chance that one of these 5 teams makes the playoff. None of them have any margin for error, except maybe Penn State if they drop a game but still win the Big Ten. However, if I had to bet on one of these teams making the playoff, it would probably be Oregon- the Ducks have two major hurdles left to clear (a trip to USC and the Pac-12 championship game).
11. Florida (12, 1.0%)
12. Utah (13, 8.9%)
13. Iowa State (17, 1.4%)
14. Notre Dame (15, 2.3%)
15. Appalachian State (21, 15.3%)
Utah is in a similar position to Oregon, but they don't control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South thanks to their loss to USC. Notre Dame has an outside shot at the playoff, but given the relative weakness of their schedule this year, it would take some chaos for them to get in at 11-1. Iowa State has been steadily rising and now is looking like the second best team in the Big 12 with a real shot of making it to Dallas.
16. Washington (16, 4.4%)
17. UCF (14, 10.8%)
18. Michigan (20, 0.1%)
19. Texas (11, 0.2%)
20. Iowa (19, 0.4%)
Texas is the most interesting team in this group to me- they started in my preseason top 10 and have steadily fallen, needing a last second field goal to beat Kansas at home last week. They're an underdog at TCU this week, and a loss would seriously dent their hopes of a rematch with Oklahoma.
21. USC (26, 0.3%)
22. Baylor (30, 0.6%)
23. Texas A&M (23, <0.1%)
24. Missouri (18, 1.2%)
25. Minnesota (27, 0.8%)
Baylor and Minnesota are the surprise Power Five undefeated teams. I was giving Minnesota some buzz in the preseason and thought they could win 8 or 9 games, but Baylor has come out of nowhere. Matt Rhule's squad is more likely than not to be undefeated when Oklahoma comes to town in a few weeks for what would be the Bears' biggest game since 2014.
Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis, Virginia, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Louisiana, North Carolina, SMU, Michigan State
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 5.4%
Memphis 4.4%
Air Force 1.8%
SMU 1.4%
1. Clemson (1, 79.4%)
2. Ohio State (3, 46.4%)
3. Alabama (2, 31.4%)
4. LSU (4, 8.0%)
5. Oklahoma (5, 16.6%)
For the first time all year, I don't have Clemson #1 and Alabama #2 as Ohio State leapfrogs the Tide after scoring 52 points on a stout Northwestern defense. I have the Buckeyes as a 12 point favorite this week against Wisconsin, a 12 point favorite against Penn State and a 13 point favorite against Michigan. In the SEC, LSU is catching up to Alabama- assuming Tua is healthy, I have Alabama as a 6 point favorite against the Tigers on November 9th.
6. Auburn (8, 0.9%)
7. Georgia (7, 6.2%)
8. Wisconsin (6, 3.6%)
9. Penn State (9, 2.1%)
10. Oregon (10, 6.3%)
My guess is that there's probably around a 30% chance that one of these 5 teams makes the playoff. None of them have any margin for error, except maybe Penn State if they drop a game but still win the Big Ten. However, if I had to bet on one of these teams making the playoff, it would probably be Oregon- the Ducks have two major hurdles left to clear (a trip to USC and the Pac-12 championship game).
11. Florida (12, 1.0%)
12. Utah (13, 8.9%)
13. Iowa State (17, 1.4%)
14. Notre Dame (15, 2.3%)
15. Appalachian State (21, 15.3%)
Utah is in a similar position to Oregon, but they don't control their own destiny in the Pac-12 South thanks to their loss to USC. Notre Dame has an outside shot at the playoff, but given the relative weakness of their schedule this year, it would take some chaos for them to get in at 11-1. Iowa State has been steadily rising and now is looking like the second best team in the Big 12 with a real shot of making it to Dallas.
16. Washington (16, 4.4%)
17. UCF (14, 10.8%)
18. Michigan (20, 0.1%)
19. Texas (11, 0.2%)
20. Iowa (19, 0.4%)
Texas is the most interesting team in this group to me- they started in my preseason top 10 and have steadily fallen, needing a last second field goal to beat Kansas at home last week. They're an underdog at TCU this week, and a loss would seriously dent their hopes of a rematch with Oklahoma.
21. USC (26, 0.3%)
22. Baylor (30, 0.6%)
23. Texas A&M (23, <0.1%)
24. Missouri (18, 1.2%)
25. Minnesota (27, 0.8%)
Baylor and Minnesota are the surprise Power Five undefeated teams. I was giving Minnesota some buzz in the preseason and thought they could win 8 or 9 games, but Baylor has come out of nowhere. Matt Rhule's squad is more likely than not to be undefeated when Oklahoma comes to town in a few weeks for what would be the Bears' biggest game since 2014.
Missed the Cut: Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis, Virginia, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Louisiana, North Carolina, SMU, Michigan State
Other notable win out probabilities:
Louisiana 5.4%
Memphis 4.4%
Air Force 1.8%
SMU 1.4%
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