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Preseason Win Totals: 9-2 +28.93 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Week 13: 2-2 -1.05 units Season Total: 46-39-2 +34.72 units Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State I've picked against Oklahoma pretty consistently this year, and I'm doing so once again here. Oklahoma State's starting QB, Spencer Sanders, is out, but even without him the Cowboys have a fantastic offense. I'd make this line Oklahoma -2.5 with Sanders, and he's definitely not worth 10 points. Oklahoma State +12 +102 (2 units) Iowa @ Nebraska Nebraska demolished Maryland last week to get to 5-6 and needs to win this game to make it to a bowl. Iowa's season has slowed a bit in recent weeks, but they're still a solid top ...

It was another bad week for teams on the cusp of bowl eligibility. 72 teams are now bowl eligible, with 78 spots available. There are 14 teams that need just one more win to make a bowl, and 7 of them are favored. However, one of them is Missouri, who is in the middle of appealing a bowl ban. I've projected that the 6 remaining favorites win their games and make a bowl, but there's a good chance we could see 5-7 teams in bowl games. Peach: Ohio State vs. Utah Fiesta: LSU vs. Clemson It's hard to say what will happen for the final playoff spot if Utah, Alabama and Oklahoma all win out. I'm still guessing it would go to the Utes given Oklahoma's recent struggles, but if Alabama demolishes Auburn or Oklahoma demolishes Baylor, it could be a different story. Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma Orange: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech Cotton: Florida vs. Memphis The biggest question for me in the rest of the New Year's Six is which Big Ten te...

Another relatively quiet week at the top, with Oklahoma/Baylor being the headliner of last week. My perception of the relative strength of the playoff contenders has been pretty constant over the last few weeks. And for the third week in a row, the same set of 25 teams occupies my top 25. The number in parenthesis next to each team represents their ranking last week. 1. Clemson (1) 2. Ohio State (2) 3. Alabama (3) 4. LSU (4) 5. Georgia (5) For the third week in a row, the top 5 remains in the same order. Georgia will be a field goal underdog, or less, against LSU in the SEC title game, probably to the public's surprise. My ratings don't account for injuries, but Alabama probably deserves to be 5th or 6th without Tua. 6. Utah (9) 7. Michigan (11) 8. Oregon (6) 9. Florida (10) 10. Oklahoma (12) Michigan is moving up significantly after their big win over Michigan State and is now at their highest ranking of the year. The Wolverines are playing just well enough to ha...

Preseason Win Totals: 6-2 +25.84 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Week 12: 1-2 -2.03 units Season Total: 41-37-2 +33.68 units 2 of my 3 picks last week came down to the wire. I waited too long to get Wyoming, and so I had them +4.5 instead of +5.5 and they lost by 5. North Texas @ Rice After a handful of close calls, Rice finally got their first win of the year last week against Middle Tennessee. The Owls have been better than their record all year, but they have a decent defense. I've been fading North Texas throughout the year and they've been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. Rice +6.5 +102 (2 units) Syracuse @ Louisville I'm back to betting on the ACC Atlantic, and I'm picki...

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it's time to fire up the simulator again and evaluate each team's chance of making the playoff. By my count, there's 11 teams that could reasonably make the playoff. One by one, we'll go through each of them to discuss the scenarios in which they make the field. Clemson: 96.8% chance to make playoff Clemson is on bye this week, then plays at South Carolina on November 30th before the ACC title game the following week. South Carolina has stumbled in recent weeks, and I have Clemson as 29 point favorites against the Gamecocks. They're likely to play Virginia Tech or Virginia in the ACC title game, where they'd be around a four touchdown favorite as well. The Tigers are overwhelmingly likely to win both games, but if they drop 1 they have around a 20% chance to still sneak into the field. LSU: 92.0% chance to make playoff LSU plays Arkansas this week, where they're a 40+ point favorite. They then host Texa...

The first two weeks of college basketball season is in the books, so it's time to update my bracketology. On the top line, I have Michigan State and Louisville remaining from my  preseason bracket  while Duke and Virginia have moved up to the top. Ohio State rockets up to a 2 seed after big wins over Cincinnati and Villanova and has a massive road trip to North Carolina coming up in a few weeks. A lot of the middle tier conferences have had disappointing starts to the year, namely the American and the Atlantic 10. Memphis was supposed to be the top team in the American, but is a question mark with James Wiseman out. Cincinnati and Houston have disappointed as well. In the A-10, Davidson has had a rough start to the year, and VCU looks like the only surefire tournament team. 1: Duke , Louisville,  Michigan State , Virginia 2: Gonzaga , Ohio State, North Carolina, Kansas 3: Arizona, Kentucky , Maryland, Oregon 4: Texas Tech, Xavier , VCU , Auburn 5: Tennessee, Villa...

It was a bad week for teams on the cut line for bowl eligibility, and I now only project 78 bowl eligible teams for 78 spots. There's thus no more projected 6-6 teams not in bowl games. Peach: LSU vs. Utah Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Clemson I've moved Utah up into the playoff. If chalk all holds from here, it's going to come down to 12-1 Oklahoma vs. a 12-1 Pac-12 champion for the last playoff spot. The losses (at USC and at Kansas State) would be comparable, and I think Utah would have the stronger wins to give them the nod. Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon Sugar: Oklahoma vs. Georgia Orange: Virginia vs. Alabama Cotton: Florida vs. Cincinnati I think that without Tua, Alabama is going to end up being around a pick'em at Auburn so I've projected they lose that and fall to the Orange Bowl. Baylor is likely out of the NY6 conversation with another loss, so the last spot likely comes down to Florida or a 2-loss Minnesota or Michigan. Citrus: Minnesota vs. Auburn ...

Preseason Win Totals: 6-2 +25.84 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Week 11: 5-0 +8.42 units Season Total: 40-35-2 +35.71 units I had my first really good week in a while last week, hitting all 5 of my picks. All 5 of them were underdogs, and 3 of them won straight up including Illinois at +14.5. I'm now solidly up on the week-to-week bets in addition to the preseason win totals. Wyoming @ Utah State I haven't bet Wyoming since week 1 against Missouri, but I like the Cowboys once again here. They've been very solid in the past few weeks, and are already bowl eligible. Utah State hasn't been the same team this year, Jordan Love has not blossomed in Gary Andersen's offense the way he did under Matt Wells. I think Wyoming should be a sli...

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season, and most division races have been wrapped up already. For each team, the first number indicates their probability of reaching the conference championship game and the second is their probability of winning it. SEC LSU >99%, 60% Georgia 95%, 40% Florida 5%, 1% Florida has to win out  in conference and needs Georgia to lose to both Auburn and Texas A&M to win the East. Alabama remains technically alive in the West. Big Ten Ohio State 90%, 75% Penn State 10%, 5% Minnesota 80%, 15% Wisconsin 20%, 5% Penn State still controls their own destiny in the East, but won't if they lose to Indiana. Minnesota just needs to win two of their last three, or just beat Wisconsin, to win the West. Big 12 Baylor 95%, 25% Oklahoma 85%, 65% Texas 15%, 7% Kansas State 2%, 1% Iowa State 2%, 1% Oklahoma State 2%, 1% Baylor is far ahead of the pack now, and Oklahoma can all but wrap up a rematch with the ...

The 25 teams in this ranking are the same as last week, although there's been some shuffling around in the order. We're down to around 11 possible playoff contenders, but only 3 or 4 of them could legitimately win the national championship. The first number in parenthesis is a team's ranking last week, and the second is their probability of winning out to the conference championship game. 1. Clemson (1, 97.5%) 2. Ohio State (2, 68.4%) 3. Alabama (3, 56.7%) 4. LSU (4, 78.1%) 5. Georgia (5, 36.9%) The order of the top 5 remains the same as last week, despite LSU's win at Alabama. That closed the gap between those two teams quite a bit, and now Clemson and Ohio State are far ahead of the pack. The Buckeyes are just a fraction of a point away from overtaking Clemson from #1, although it appears likely they'll end up playing in a playoff semifinal. 6. Oregon (8, 80.6%) 7. Auburn (9, 19.5%) 8. Penn State (6, 11.9%) 9. Utah (10, 80.6%) 10. Florida (13, 69.1%)...

Only three weeks remain in the regular season, and bowl bids are getting a bit more clear. Some changes at the top this week, as I move LSU into the playoff in place of Alabama. Overall, I still project 80 eligible teams for 78 slots. Peach: LSU vs. Oregon Fiesta: Ohio State vs. Clemson I'm keeping Oregon in the playoff- right now the decision for the last spot comes down to the Pac-12 champion, the Big 12 champion and Alabama. I'll assume here that Oregon wins out and their conference champion elevates them over a 12-1 Oklahoma and a 11-1 Alabama. Rose: Penn State vs. Utah Sugar: Oklahoma vs. Alabama Orange: Virginia vs. Georgia Cotton: Baylor vs. Cincinnati I considered slotting Minnesota into the New Year's Six, but if it comes down to 11-2 Minnesota and 10-2 Penn State my guess is that the Nittany Lions would get the nod for the Rose Bowl. I've given Baylor the last at-large spot to the New Year's Six, although don't be surprised if Florida wins ...

Preseason Win Totals 6-2: +25.84 units Week 1: 7-1-1 +16.90 units Week 2: 3-6 -0.31 units Week 3: 3-4 -1.09 units Week 4: 4-5 +3.22 units Week 5: 1-5-1 -10.07 units Week 6: 3-3 +0.52 units Week 7: 3-4 -5.28 units Week 8: 2-1 +0.81 units Week 9: 2-2 -2.19 units Week 10: 1-2 -2.06 units Season Total: 35-35-2 +27.29 units A handful of my preseason win total bets are now locked in. My biggest bet, Florida State under 7.5, has hit, as has Wake Forest over 6. I've also won Liberty over and Nebraska under and lost Akron over and Baylor under. Last week was a relatively quiet 1-2 week as UTEP just failed to cover against North Texas. Illinois @ Michigan State Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, as they beat Wisconsin a few weeks ago which they've turned into a 3 game win streak. The Illini are now one win away from bowl eligibility, and I think they have a good chance of picking it up here. My numbers hate Michigan State's offense and have...

There's now only four weeks left in the season, and the conference title races are coming into clearer focus. Some divisions are essentially decided already, while others hinge on one big game. For each team below, the first number represents their probability to make the conference championship game and the second is their probability to win it. SEC Alabama 70%, 55% LSU 30%, 15% Georgia 85%, 25% Florida 15%, 5% The winner of this week's Alabama/LSU game is going to be the overwhelming favorite to win the SEC West and go on to Atlanta. Georgia is not a sure thing to win the East though- if Florida wins out in conference play and Georgia loses twice, the Gators will win the division. I have Georgia as a 1 point underdog at Auburn and both the Texas A&M and Missouri games are loseable. Big Ten Ohio State 85%, 70% Penn State 15%, 7% Minnesota 50%, 12% Wisconsin 30%, 6% Iowa 25%, 5% The Big Ten East is going to come down to the monster Ohi...

The top four remains the same going into the massive Alabama/LSU game this weekend. Most of the other top teams were either on bye or playing cupcakes- the biggest change to the playoff picture was Georgia's win over Florida. It doesn't sow up the SEC East for Georgia, but it does put them one step closer to the playoff. The first number in parenthesis is a team's ranking last week, and the second is their probability of winning out to the conference championship game. 1. Clemson (1, 95.3%) 2. Ohio State (2, 63.6%) 3. Alabama (3, 44.2%) 4. LSU (4, 22.0%) 5. Georgia (6, 28.4%) I have Alabama as a 6.5 point favorite at home against LSU on Saturday- exactly where the consensus line is right now. The winner of that game can essentially book their ticket to Atlanta to take on Georgia. The Bulldogs are moving up after their win over Florida, but are some distance behind the rest of the top 4. 6. Penn State (7, 9.4%) 7. Oklahoma (8, 28.7%) 8. Oregon (13, 78.9%) 9. Aub...

Now that there's only 4 weeks left in college football season, I'm bringing back my bowl projections. There's a lot of guesswork involved in this process, as bowl tie-ins are more fluid than they were a few years ago. There's also going to be a lot of empty SEC slots, likely some empty Big Ten slots, and too many bowl eligible ACC teams. That leads to some strange matchups in the projections below. Peach: Ohio State vs. Oregon Fiesta: Alabama vs. Clemson I was deciding between Oregon, LSU and Oklahoma for the last playoff spot. I give the Ducks around a 40% chance of being 12-1 Pac-12 champions so I decided to give it to them. If it comes down to 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon and 11-1 LSU, I'm unsure what the committee would do. Rose: Penn State vs. Utah Sugar: LSU vs. Oklahoma Orange: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Cotton: Baylor vs. Cincinnati The Rose and Sugar bowls fall into place nicely. I give Cincinnati the best chance to win the American, and slot them i...

College hoops season is now only 3 days away, so it's time for the final bracketology update of the preseason. At the top, things are relatively similar to my  June update , with North Carolina and Kentucky moving up to the top line, replacing Duke and Kansas. Closer to the bubble, everything is very shaky at this point in the season as teams from the 6 or 7 line on down are pretty indistinguishable from one another. The Pac-12 is looking to rebound from its disastrous 2018-19 season, and the league has 6 or 7 possible tournament teams this year. When you consider a strong American, Atlantic 10 and WCC, it means that there could be fewer bids to go around to power conference teams who are 9-9 or 8-10 in conference play. The next update will be sometime before Feast Week- for now, enjoy the beginning of the season. In addition to the Champions Classic, there's a whole lineup of intriguing non-conference games to start the year. 1: Michigan State , Louisville , North Carol...